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Got no doubt those Asadna beat at Ripon aren’t going to be much, Joe.
However, Asadna did beat them by 12 lengths.It may be significant that he was very weak in the betting from a yard who’s struggling a bit for form at the moment.
Connections will do well to get the horse back to the 109 Timeform gave him for Ripon.
Value Is EverythingIf he does nothing in Group company, he might end up back at Ripon for the Listed race on the August Bank Holiday.
In homage to GT’s mantra, though times and sectional times weren’t in my thinking, “value is everything” most definitely was in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes just now because in backing Mostahdaf at 22/1 I most definitely did NOT consider him the most likely winner of the race.
There was just 2lb between five of the sextet – including him – on OR and that was a central plank in my reasoning.
Times, sectional times, the value concept, information, code switching (like Vauban yesterday), just five of the legion factors in this endlessly-fascinating game.
Instead of clinging to pet factors like football fans supporting a football club, we should all IMO always be open to everything.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Nearly all the horses pushed along early in the Norfolk
Blackbeard to conquer the World
“ridden and no impression over 1f out, weakened into 3rd towards finish”
drop back to 5 furlong imo
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Needs some slower horses to run against.
The clock cannot lie – but it can mislead.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"George Boughey to Alice Haynes.
I wouldn’t expect the same form.Value Is EverythingAt Royal Ascot it was George Boughey to George Boughey, though.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I guess, what I’m trying to say, is that, whether it’s overall times or sectional times, comparative time study is only as reliable as what it’s being compared against.
And while I spend my life looking at such things, I’m aware that it is ultimately, if not an art, then an imperfect science.
Such are the vagaries of racing.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If Haynes isn’t good why did the owner send him there?
He’s not short of a few quid is he
if he so it would be a should have sold to Goldophin after debut momentBlackbeard to conquer the World
Remember the alarming drift of Asadna in the days leading up to Royal Ascot, Nathan.
Could it be Boughey told the owner the horse was not in 100% physical shape before Ascot and the owner insisted on running because it’s Royal Ascot?
Then afterwards they fell out and the owner moves most of his horses?Haynes was already one of the owner’s trainers. The owner has moved at least 4 horses from Boughey to Haynes in the last month. Including his big Oaks day handicap winner Cadillac – who also disappointed at Royal Ascot.
Was Godolphin interested? If so am surprised as from what I’ve seen Asadna is a small animal who was always likely to be at his best early.
Value Is EverythingFor sure not all times work out, Ian.
Yes, sometimes because the time analysis was wrong.
But more often than not it’s because of other aspects of form.Value Is Everythingunless the exact conditions can be replicated at the same track with the same wind speed&direction/ground/humidity/temperature/runners in the race/race style/the horses weight that day/crowd size etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc etc
Then there a crock of ****…
They almost, never back up NTO and this twitter debate was another nail in the coffin for those who look at times and believe them completely
Same nonsense as the “value backers”
I have to concur to the extent that, if a horse appears to clock a fast time (figure?) over, say, 7f at Yarmouth in mid summer on Good to Firm ground with no headwind, it’s only under those identical conditions you can be confident the horse will back it up.
Celtic Swing’s cracking time in the Town Moor slop as a 2yo wasn’t much help when he bumped into Pennekamp on quick ground at Newmarket.
Some students of racing are as tribal about individual factors as football supporters.
“Overall times” isn’t a football club, neither is “sectional times,” nor is “trainers suddenly hitting form,” or the “inside word from a yard.”
You’re actually allowed to look at everything and keep every factor in proportion.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Remember the alarming drift of Asadna in the days leading up to Royal Ascot, Nathan.
Could it be Boughey told the owner the horse was not in 100% physical shape before Ascot and the owner insisted on running because it’s Royal Ascot?
Then afterwards they fell out and the owner moves most of his horses?”Asadna sustained a cut a few days before the race
Owner didn’t want him to run
Boughey ran him anyway so owner moved all of his horses from the yard
Think that was the gist of the RP article on it anyway
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