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Pretty sure I’ve met people like Johnny Dineen and though I’m not sure they’d word it thus, they might say: “Yes, value is everything and I’m betting this 1/2 shot because I think it should be 1/4 and 80 divided by 67 is 1.19 and that’s my edge and I’m unlikely to have many mental health-damaging waits between winners, so you carry on backing 33/1 shots you think should be 28s and over time win enough to pay for the psychiatrist you’ll regularly need in the bad times and I’ll do my thing, cheers.”
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It is only right that a sectional timing expert like Simon should defend his specialist subject vigorously against someone who – although probably has other qualities – clearly doesn’t understand sectional timing.
tbh If I worked the race out – even with me being a believer in sectional times – I’d probably have been for River Tiber too.
There were other reasons to be against Asadna.
Primarily trainer form.
In contrast to AOB, Boughey’s form is imo not good at the moment.Value Is EverythingJD’s initial colourful comment on Asadna’s Ripon win – “The second isn’t worth a a Mars bar” – is what tickled twitter folk and started that ball rolling. He’s an entertainer without trying to be – often the best kind imo – and will almost always add, as he did after the Mars bar comment, ‘I may be wrong, of course. I often am’ or words along those lines. Punters identify with him very closely for his cheeriness and uncomplaining nature when things go badly.
Anyway, I believe times have strong merit in many cases. But punting is often about confidence as much as anything else, and if you are willing to dismiss any aspect of study without blinking, and are happy with the results of doing so, then good luck to you whoever you are.
I don’t think he so much “defended” it as proactively launched an attack on someone else’s tweet on the subject, GT.
One of my niche areas is betting on Point-to-Pointers running in Hunters’ Chases and back under rules generally and I daresay if I went looking for it on social media I’d find plenty of comment along the lines of “what idiot bets on those slow old, amateur-ridden, boats?”
I don’t feel the need to look and I wouldn’t feel the need to comment even if I did.
The fewer people who do what I do the better.
Same deal with times, the more people you convert the less value you will find for yourself in the market.
Let people believe what they want to believe, I say, and quietly carry on doing what works for you.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Asadna should have gone the 5f route
Royal Ascot sprints are hard run and would have suited him more
The Coventry has a tendency to need a bit of stamina even over 6fBlackbeard to conquer the World
I have deleted my earlier post about Mr Rowlands because on reflection it was unfair
Reply duly deleted
Remember, remember: “A time tells you not how good a horse is but how bad it isn’t”
Thanks Drone. Posted before my morning wake up cup of tea but I still should have known better!
Yes, value is everything. We know short priced horses can be value in just the same way as bigger prices, Ian.
One or two big priced winners can of course be coincidence and perhaps nothing to do with getting value. However, actually knowing you’ve achieved value with long odds-on shots is if anything more difficult to establish. Because a long sequence of winning long odds-on shots can be just because a long sequence of winners can be expected with such prices. Therefore perhaps nothing to do with getting “value”.Because they win so often, many long odds-on shot backers have thought they’ve got value only for comparatively few losers to wreck them.
Yes, the inevitable losing runs at big prices can play on confidence and on a punter’s mental state. But equally the fact that a lot more money needs to be staked on long odds-on chances to make a reasonable profit must also take its mental toll.
Personally, where I’ve found a big priced horse value it doesn’t stop me finding other value at perhaps shorter odds in the same race. Therefore the stress of long losing runs are less of a problem.
Each to his own.
Value Is Everything“Asadna should have gone the 5f route
Royal Ascot sprints are hard run and would have suited him more
The Coventry has a tendency to need a bit of stamina even over 6f”Nathan,
Racing Post comment for the run at Ripon (on supposedly the same good going and same 6f trip as Ascot) said “pushed along to lead”. Could be wrong (could be greenness) but that suggests to me (considering the overall time was thought exceptional) he was able to maintain the speed rather than quicken… Which in turn suggests stamina at 6f is his forte and at 5f may well have been outpaced.Value Is EverythingWatch the race yourself Ginger.. Racing post comments lol
I’d say hes slightly niggling him into the bridle rather than being pushed along. The race was won between the two and one pole.Blackbeard to conquer the World
On Asadna, no conclusions ought to be drawn yet. Might have had a bad day yesterday. The debut effort to win at Ripon, even though it seemed easy, could have set him back or even busted him completely. Or it could have been a host of other things. In every race I’d give up access to speed figures and stride data and wind ops and change of regime at home etc, in exchange for knowing about any horses who’d had a bad trip to the races that day, especially in summer heat.
The Dylan Cunha training operation posted a couple of weeks ago that after a ‘nightmare trip’ to the meeting – long delays in high temperatures – both runners ran completely flat. I asked (non adversarially) if he’d considered withdrawing. Dylan said it had been in his mind but that the horses ‘checked over okay’.
One of the most boring apothegms in racing is ‘they are not machines’. But it’s arguably the one most easily forgotten.
They didn’t think he was a machine before debut, went off at 4/1 third favourite…
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Another clue perhaps, Nathan, that this performance might not quite hang together. Trainer quote: “Asadna is a lovely horse with a super mind and he was very well prepared at the breeze-ups. I didn’t expect him to win as well as he did today but we thought he’d run very well.”
Yes Nathan, I’ve seen the race more than once before and have done so again now. To my mind the Racing Post analysis seems correct. It wasn’t that he cruised into the lead, more that he was pushed into the lead and then went clear. Indicating a drop to 5f would not have been in his favour. Timeform seem to agree. See the last sentence:
Timeform’s own Timefigure pre-race preview by Graeme North said:
“On the face of it, Asadna, who is 3/1 at the time of writing while River Tiber is 7/4, would appear to have the stronger credentials but I’m slightly reluctant to put him forward. Not because of the winless record at the Royal meeting of his sire Mehmas, who has had just two of the 17 juveniles representing him finish in the first three, an unenviable record surpassed only by his own sire Acclamation who in the period since 2015 is zero from 18, or because he has been weak on the exchanges, or due to the second horse getting beat since, but because I’ve a strong suspicion that he’ll trade a fair bit bigger in running.
Neither of his initial furlong times at the Breeze Ups were spectacular, though he made up for that with a convincing gallop out, and there was no point at any stage of the first half-mile at Ripon where it looked as though he’d end up winning convincingly, let alone by 12 lengths”.
Value Is EverythingI thought it notable in the Ripon race that at the 2 pole, before things got serious, everything but Adjana was under the cosh suggesting, perhaps, they were a pretty poor bunch.
One thing I would say about Asadna is the likelihood of much improvement from debut was unlikely. From what I’ve seen he’s a smallish horse and smallish horses usually come to hand earlier than good looking bigger types like River Tiber.
Value Is Everything
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