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Im with you nath, although i do genuinely believe SMB is the best ballydoyle has had and been saying this for a while, its a shame hes been retired as he would have won this IMO
Snowfall will win though and ill be having a fair dunt e/w @5/1
Tarnawa for 2nd and hurricaine lane for 3rd
Genuinely feel Adayar will do well to finish in the top 4/5, will be having a place lay for a few £ at likely very short odds
SMB wouldn’t have stayed 12f ham otherwise they would’ve gone to Epsom and not France. 8f/10f horse. Ballydoyle knew
I get that she’s not looked the same horse this year, but 25-1 for Love looks a tad big to me, and I’ll take her just now ew.
I’ve also taken the 50-1 ew 4 places on Mojo Star
Up to 30 mm’s of rain due over the weekend. If that does hit then we are looking at “soft soft” ground.
Got to be a few doubts about some of these even running and the Japanese horse has only ever ran on fast ground so that is a a leap of faith also.
Snowfall will finish 5+ if not 10 clear of Teona in the Arc
Just the 12f clear
beating Snowfall took its affect and broke Teona a bit like when Zoffany beat Frankel in the St James Palace Stakes, he was never the same either..
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I am happy enough with Snowfall’s and Tarnawa’s draw.
1.Torquator Tasso (12)
2.Deep Bond (5)
3.Broome (7)
4.Tarnawa (3)
5.Love (4)
6.Raabihah (15)
7.Chrono Genesis (14)
8.Mojo Star (1)
9.Baby Rider (13)
10.Adayar (11)
11.Hurricane Lane (2)
12.Sealiway (10)
13.Alenquer (8)
14.Bubble Gift (6)
15.Snowfall (9)Soft ground levels the playing field somewhat, so single figure draw 9 not too bad in those conditions imo.
Wouldn’t be surprised if there are 1 or 2 hard luck stories on the inside as jockeys try to get position/a run, so Snowfall ought not to have excuses on that score.Enable had a smooth enough passage from stall 9 when getting chinned by Waldgeist.
I imagine it depends on run style
Enable had a very high cruising speed and raced prominently
If you are mid pack stuck 3 or 4 wide without cover its not ideal and in such a competitive race its often the difference between winning and losing
Tarnawa will likely need luck in running id imagine as she isn’t a prominent runner
Id think Doyle will be looking to be very prominent on hurricane lane and kick early to use his stamina
The soft going makes snowfall a massive player IMHO. Bet of the race. Tarnawa will be there and the Japanese horse I think will go close. Can’t see love running but can see Broome running a big race. Hopefully the draw doesn’t decide the outcome.
Will the Japanese horse go on the ground?
Her sire loved the soft but she will never have encountered ground this soft if the forecasted rain hits the track
For me snowfall should be 10/1 in this field
Shes beaten nothing and the bubble well and truly burst last time
Form is nothing close to adayar, tarnawa and hurricane lane
She may well win but won’t be backing her myself at that price
She drifts to a big enough price I may consider a saver
I wouldn’t say there is any outstanding value here. There usually isn’t when there isn’t a focus on one superstar.
I Like Hurricane Lane and Snowfall but a ledger winner at 5/1 hardly screams value?
The Japanese horses might like the ground
SHL
FF91 one minute you’re saying Snowfall has beaten nothing and bubble been burst, then you say she might win. Make yer mind up
lolI just can’t leave a Prix Niel winner out at 100’s! Its a bit of a dart, but:
2 pts e/w Bubble Gift 100/1 (Generally available)
BUY THE SUN
Going with a lively outsider here in Alenquer 28/1 e/w 4 places 1/5 odds.
He’s beaten the Derby winner this season and will be suited by the likely testing ground. On the face of it well held by Hurricane Lane on Grand Prix De Paris form. However, he performed by far the best of those racing off the pace in that contest and stayed on for third without being able to threaten the winner.
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