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Great spot that ID, the way that your post read, I just assumed you hadn’t backed it.
BUY THE SUN
Thank you, TTC – I had a late change of heart before the off. Your kind words are much appreciated.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Brilliant bet ID!
Saved me a few quid (laid the second).
Winner seemed to be outpaced 2 out, thought he was going to disappear off the screen and then stayed on extremely well.
Value Is EverythingIt will be interesting to see what their plans are for him, will he run in BC Turf/Japan Cup/Hong Kong Vase and/or stay in training and attempt a shot at the KG, in which he would encounter much better ground than today.
Stayers Hurdle next I reckon.
Form is probably worth more than some people think.
Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane may well have run somewhere near form. They are good Group 1 horses but not extremely good. I was wrong about Tarnawa, she stayed the trip really well in the ground after having a good run through. Hurricane Lane seemingly had to wait for a run at a crucial stage, but probably would not have made the difference anyway. Bit surprised he couldn’t stay on better than Tarnawa in the final strides which may indicate a pound or two below his very best, but only that at most.
Torquator Tasso probably worth rating ahead of all he beat, but only under these exact conditions again. Suspect he got the most effective ride. Outpaced at a time when some others capable of faster were going too quickly in the conditions.
With what happened in the Derby and King George can’t say Adayar didn’t stay. However, he got away with being a bit free in the King George on a speed surface against a non-staying Mishriff second. But being free on that stamina sapping ground against other top 12f horses is another thing – settling on very soft going is pretty much vital. Also possibly went for home in earnest a little too soon. ie Running 3 to 1 1/2 out too quick in that ground even with a less than true overall pace.
Just because he was an outsider does not mean Sealiway puts a question mark on form. His 1 3/4 lengths second to St Marks Basilica (on soft) probably as good as this.
Like in the Vermaille Snowfall again below her best but possibly didn’t have the form to win this anyway. Easy winner of what turned out to be some uncompetitive restricted Group 1’s. Either that or wasn’t suited by ground this soft at 12f.
Value Is EverythingDefinitely isnt worth more than people think
Horse will never uphold this form against any of these again and the only reason he won is because nothing ran above 115 MAX
Considering theres what, 4 120+ horses in the race
There is no analysis that will make what you said true
This was a one off that wont be replicated
Definitely a case of who handled the conditions best. The winner actually won snugly. Tarawa battled on well but couldn’t match the winner. Best horse on the day won. Pointless trying to over analyse as its impossible to say what we can take from the race. On good ground I suspect there could be a few swapping places.
Adayar and snowfall were undone by the surface. Snowfall was travelling very well but couldn’t quicken in that ground and adayar the same. I suspect if that wasn’t the arc a few would have been pulled. Be some feat if anyone in the field won at del Mar IMHO.
As my analysis implies ham; yes conditions today may well prove a “one off”
But just because conditions only happen once in a blue moon doesn’t mean the form is worth nothing; nor should the form be ignored if (big IF) those exact circumstances do happen again.
Strange how some punters want to write off form on very soft ground completely and yet expect form on very firm to work out. Many horses won’t act on very firm either.
Value Is EverythingGerman Gp1 winner with form on soft ground, turns up and wins the Arc. Well done to all, and to the German breeding industry, who still value stamina.
Interesting point being made elsewhere about the potential of a dead spot along the rail (or livelier down the middle).
Heavy ground form tends to be undervalued, in much the same way sprinting or staying performances are, but winner proved to have best ability under those conditions.
But, while you’ll see Best Miler, Best Sprinter, Best Stayer, etc, awards being doled out at end year, you won’t see ‘Best Soft Ground Miler’, ‘Best Good to Firm Ground Miler’, despite ground preferences being just as important (more so in some cases) as trip.
Unfortunately, for yesterday’s winner, best middle distance horse in the world mantle will be reserved for the GTF performers.
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