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Hyperbole in full swing I see. Don’t doubt he is going to be top class and he was empathic in what he had to do, form worth looks worth a bag of potatoes to be quite honest. Toronado patently didn’t produce his best and we have a horse in 2nd supposedly improving 20lbs or so for a set of blinkers, balls. Impressions were going in, interesting Guineas, impressions coming out, rubbish Guineas.
Jim Bolger has stated that the Derby is his target. That seems logical having crushed his own generation over a mile and with little of last years three year olds likely to provide any sort of opposition to him now they are four.
My own feeling has always been that winning over five furlongs at 2 years of age, particularly so early in the season, gives him a highly unlikely Derby profile and my gut says he won’t stay. If he does stay though, what will beat him?
Telescope looks a ridiculous price to me, a 4 grand maiden winner who was beaten by John Gosden’s Snow King, albeit narrowly, on his first start. Snow King has been rubbish since then, looking all out of place and out of his depth in the side card at The Breeders Cup meeting before finishing stone last behing Ninjago, after going off 4/1 Fav, in a listed race at Ascot last week. Telescope’s maiden win looks nothing special thus far and he will have to improve mightily from 2 to 3 in order to close the gap to anything near Dawn Approach’s level. Battle Of Marengo is game but looks a battler who might not like Epsom and may be better the more that emphasis is put on stamina. Ocovango represents a powerful figure in Andre Fabre but his form looks modest to me. I have not been impressed by the way he has been winning and I think a lot of his position at as low as 8/1 for Epsom is the fact that he has been treading in the footsteps of Pour Moi in his preparation, and it would not surprise me if he stayed at home for now. Either way, I think he’s a silly price.
I can’t see me having a bet on the race this year unless something emerges that looks a decent each-way on the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not today is he a stone behind Frankel if time means anything.
In around 30 years of following horse racing in the UK I have come to conclude that winning times for races on a year in year out basis, and for track records, are more or less bollocks when trying to evaluate relative merits.
If you look at athletics, when competitors are in a big final and "eyeballs out" over shorter distances, you can more or less set your watch on who will win based on their personal best times. If you watch those same athletes farting around in the races with less importance attached the times are often shockingly far away from what they are capable of, particularly in longer, more tactical affairs. Bring that to horse racing with all the elements that can affect a time and it becomes way less reliable, although you could perhaps argue that horses over sprint distances are pretty much flat out all the way. Having said that Dandy Boy clocked a faster time than Black Caviar at Royal Ascot last year, on the same day, so are we to assume he is the better horse?
The horses he defeated today and the ones he faces in the future will determine where Dawn Approach sits on the all-time list. I suspect he beat moderate opponents today. Toronado was bitterly disappointing after all the hype. He was beaten some way out and I don’t think he ever travelled like he would win it today. O’Briens team had a look about it before the race that he had passed his entire three year old string of colts through a gold pan and these were the three tiny nuggets he found that had any shine to them. They pretty much ran as if that was the case as well, not disgraced but not the contenders he has had in previous seasons.
It might well have been the case that we would see Dawn Approach tackle his elders and give us some indication of the relative merits of successive generations, sadly, it would seem that many of last year’s three year old colts, over a mile at least, are now licking ice creams on Blackpool Beach for a living
Good post Steve – I like that gold pan analogy
Thanks Joe
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If he sticks to Frankels agenda he will be beating the same old bunch until next year.However even with stamins doubts he is going for the Derby.I guess some trainers,or owners,are braver than others.
I think Bolger might have more gall than Cecil and take on the older horses this season. Whatever you say about Sea The Stars ability, the trainer really laid it all on the line and took a massive risk with the Arc. Henry was so busy protecting Frankel’s perfect record he never took any risks until it was too late. Sad really.
Disappointed in you Admiral. I thought you had an insight with eventing and realise how temperament is vital to how a horse performs. You may have forgotten that Frankel wanted to get on with things as a young three year old miler. First having to be taught how to settle at a mile before going on to 10f glory at four… And Frankel did "take on older horses" at three, in both Sussex and QEII. Taking on an excellent field.
Sea The Stars relaxed well in his races. The Arc was his obvious target at the end of his 3 year old year. Starting the 4/6 favourite, it was hardly a "massive risk". Just as the QEII was Frankel’s obvious target in a year where he never totally relaxed at a mile. Indeed, Frankel showed so much exhuberance in the 2000 Guineas that 5f would’ve been preferable to 1m4f as an alternative trip.
You could also say that connections took a risk by keeping Frankel in training at four, where as Sea The Stars retired.
Had Frankel been rank in the Derby it could’ve ruined his entire career. We may never have seen his brilliant best. Do you throw a young eventer at a target he is not ready for? Of course not. Horses mature at different rates. You bring the horse on bit by bit, stepping him up when ready, reaping the rewards later.
Bolger has intimated how on breeding – there are some doubts about Dawn Approach staying the Derby trip. However, temperament – settles and even been described as "lazy" – means he will probably stay.
Make no mistake Admiral… Had Sea The Stars or Dawn Approach won the 2000 Guineas in the same way Frankel did – neither would run in the Derby.
Value Is EverythingOn reflection, the 2000 Guineas gave the impression of being one of the worst since Cockney Rebel’s year apart from the winner.
The top surface was too loose for both of the Henrythenavigator colts. Mars needs further. Toronado didn’t stay. A 90-something rated horse came second. The Racing Post Trophy winner didn’t take part. Dawn Approach’s clear win doesn’t reveal much about his ability or chances in the Derby. At least he looks like he will stay.
Of course, Frankel didn’t beat any genuine G1 milers in his year either, for all Dubawi Gold and Native Khan were solid. Dawn Approach could still prove himself to be exceptional. I would like to see him beat Cristoforo Colomobo and George Vancouver on genuine quick ground and/0r win The Derby to prove it.
Had to smile whilst watching the last couple of frames in snooker final earlier this evening. John Parrott compared Ronnie O’Sullivan to Frankel. He said something along the lines of "He’s like Frankel. When other horses get near him, he keeps pulling out more"
On reflection, the 2000 Guineas gave the impression of being one of the worst since Cockney Rebel’s year apart from the winner.
The top surface was too loose for both of the Henrythenavigator colts. Mars needs further. Toronado didn’t stay.
I thought Toronado didn’t appreciate the storm wettened surface and Hughes took it easy in the final furlong. Staying wasn’t a problem.
One of the worst fields since Frankel’s Guineas.No? Dawn Approach won by five lengths Frankel won by six.Big difference.Sea The Stars won by 1 1/2 lengths,with Delegator, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman behind him.What does that say about winning distances? I do not believe that DA will stay the Derby distance but credit to connections for not ducking and weaving and any excuse will do.Henry to his credit had us believing that Frankel was practically untractable,if not untrainable, and lucky that he was his trainer since he is such a master of his craft.
Had to smile whilst watching the last couple of frames in snooker final earlier this evening. John Parrott compared Ronnie O’Sullivan to Frankel. He said something along the lines of "He’s like Frankel. When other horses get near him, he keeps pulling out more"
Parrott stole that line I think. I am sure that the late porn star John Holmes was compared in a similar way back in the early 80’s
"He’s like Nijinsky, when other porn studs get near him, he keeps pulling out more"
Then again I may only have dreamt that!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
.Henry to his credit had us believing that Frankel was practically untractable,if not untrainable, and lucky that he was his trainer since he is such a master of his craft.
I am glad that the title of this thread means you have finally come around to the idea that Frankel was a decent horse having spent three years denying it.
You should read the Cecil biography if you really want to know how difficult he was in his early days.
Honestly when I read your posts I have to remind myself they come from an 80 year old not a little child. Will you never give up you silly old man?
BTW what a marvellous horse Dawn Approach is. His story is not yet finished and who knows what is left in the remaining chapters but I’ll enjoy reading them!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
One of the worst fields since Frankel’s Guineas.No? Dawn Approach won by five lengths Frankel won by six.Big difference.Sea The Stars won by 1 1/2 lengths,with Delegator, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman behind him.What does that say about winning distances? I do not believe that DA will stay the Derby distance but credit to connections for not ducking and weaving and any excuse will do.Henry to his credit had us believing that Frankel was practically untractable,if not untrainable, and lucky that he was his trainer since he is such a master of his craft.
Andyod,
It was xxxxxxx obvious Frankel wasn’t going to go for the Derby after being far too free in the 2000 Guineas. Immediately after the horse past the post at Newmarket I hit the lay button for Epsom. Someone’s got to take advantage of punters with limited race reading skills.Value Is EverythingOne of the worst fields since Frankel’s Guineas.No? Dawn Approach won by five lengths Frankel won by six.Big difference.Sea The Stars won by 1 1/2 lengths,with Delegator, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman behind him.What does that say about winning distances? I do not believe that DA will stay the Derby distance but credit to connections for not ducking and weaving and any excuse will do.Henry to his credit had us believing that Frankel was practically untractable,if not untrainable, and lucky that he was his trainer since he is such a master of his craft.
Both Frankel and Dawn Approach turned the Guineas into a procession but who knows what Toronado, Cristoforo Columbo, George Vancouver and Mars will go on to achieve it’s just the start of the flat season.
Toronado is an extremely talented horse things just didn’t go his way in the Guineas. It was a gift from heaven for Dawn Approach that heavy rain fell 25 minutes before the race and although it didn’t get into the ground too much it was enough to be a problem for a fast ground horse like Toronado. Dawn Approach would still have beaten him but Toronado might have had more in the tank to have given a bit more when he took DA on.
Now Derby favourite, Dawn Approach has more to do, but if connections think it is within his grasp then let him take his chances. If he handles the track then he will win
and there’s more to come.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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