- This topic has 65 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
As promised –
Lanzarote Hurdle – those holding strongest trend credentials are Sharp Rigging, Mr President, Chockdee and Without a Doubt. My advice is to wait until ten minutes before the off and back any of these quartet that are 10/1 or under (at the moment Mr President is only qualifier but that could change).
Anyone interested in seeing the rationale for the above should PM me and I’ll e-mail a copy.
I muck about too much, but sensing the likely intention of the trainer of a horse I’m interested being important to me (among a host of interesting considerations, such as the opposition, for example, to name but one!) good class races at good class meetings seem to eliminate or considerably reduce that hideous factor: is it intended to win?
When choosing horses, I find it useful to study the horse’s profile. Coming back after a year or two, so down in the weights but showing fair recent form?
A poor favourite, and falsely priced at that, can sometimes be identified by an easy win in a slow time, and there is often a sounder bet to be had in the race.
I’ve found that the quality of my reasoning (not to speak of self-discipline and everything else) on a given day is very important. It is prone to vary. Nor do I think that always seeing a glass half full is helpful for a serious punter, but it’s a besetting sin of mine, bettingwise.
You pick up a million little wrinkes though over the years, though, and that help to offset my lack of professionalism. When I’m winning, that is…!!!!! In other words, alas, there’s no substitute for professionalism.
Grimes,<br>I certainly agree with your notion about picking up countless wrinkles that build up into valuable experience, and guide our judgement. Intuition plus the confidence that ensues when it is proved right are a formidable pair of betting allies.<br>The bedrock of my approach to form study is the mantra that:<br>’ a moderate horse CANNOT win a race in an exceptional time'<br>It follows(rather obviously) from this that an exceptional time denotes exceptional ability and I regard with mild suspicion any good class race which is run in a moderate time. I know the mantra is something of a truism, but it surprises me how many so-called experts forget to apply it when assessing form. I’m not saying a moderate time means a moderate performance, by the way. Just that it doesn’t prove anything.
"The pace of the race affect’s the veracity of the result.True races that are competitive and run in a fast time will produce result’s that accurately reflect the difference in ability between horses.Conversely,tatical,slow,and non competitive races will yeild outcomes that fail to reflect the true merit of the runner’s"
Dave Lee Priest <br>Against the Odds
<br>share the love<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 6:15 pm on Jan. 15, 2005)
Lanzarote Hurdle –
Trends blown to peices shock! Glenn must have been right all along!
But then again…. there’s always next week.
EW, Dave Lee Priest is pretty much spot on. The only thing is that falsely-run races sometimes do prove one important thing about the horses concerned, namely their ability or otherwise to quicken, and this is likely to be replicated in simailar types of races (though the tactics of the jockeys and the positioning of the horses is also crucial).
Recently, we have seen Stallone put in two very good performances in slowly-run races against horses who probably have more stamina than he does: on one of the occasions he did this despite seeming to be set too much to do. It was no surprise that he bombed out when faced with a much more truly-run race the other day.
Pru
Does not your example show(Stallone) that collateral form is not worth a carrot
This is mysystem
Take everyone’s opinion; <br>
- <br>
- Filter out all of the people who have an opinion and make a loss (not Glenn).<br>
- Filter out all of the methods that I can’t operate because I’m risk averse (no disrespect to seagull).<br>
<br>And then bet accordingly, taking each race as a stand alone event and framing my bets within it.<br>:biggrin: <br>
Corm, don’t beat yourself up too much about the Lanzarote, I had it down as a no-bet race on a trends basis because they have changed the conditions- it’s now a 0-135 and for some reason this type of change in my experience buggers up any patterns which have previously emerged- keep the faith!<br>On the Pierse Hurdle front, I agree that the winner didn’t fit the usual profile in that he had no handicap hurdle start in the current campaign, but he was still a young unexposed horse with few hurdle runs, as most of the winners are.<br>We’re going to have to be very adaptable this year with the changes at Cheltenham, will be interesting to see how the new races affect the trends in races like the Gold Cup and Champion Chase.
Firstly I should say I only bet in flat sprint handicaps.<br>I tend to gather horses to follow throughout a season –  due to them running good races in difficult circumstances. This could be because of draw, going, how the race was run etc… etc…
I then study these horses likes/dislikes, and with sprinters these are plentiful ;) I know of one horse who runs pounds better when it’s raining during the race itself!!
I then wait for a suitable betting opportunity. It could be a back or lay depending on the conditions.
Handicap sprinters run regularly, win a couple of races a year more or less, and most importantly they can pop up at big prices.
Apologies if I have missed this during this lengthy, but interesting, thread.
I’m not a trends person as such, but I did start doing some reviews of previous races during the course of the season. I will admit to finding them useful, although some of the time you will just find them pointing out the bleedin’ obvious. However, if that happened I didn’t just follow them blindly, I tried to make a choice on value.
As most have said, it’s not about a single issue but a variety of issues to suit you. I just like to review how the winners of previous races have come to get there. You don’t have to blindly follow the result of that work.
It will be interesting to see if any of the additional races at the Festival (sorry EW, I know this thread was to be devoid of Cheltenham references!) will affect the people who are following the trends of previous Festivals. (4yo handicap, ‘Brit’ Novice etc).
Tim
Artemis,<br>I like to note track record holders, but not just for the track concerned; others too.
Also, it can give a hint in terms of breeding – noting horses from broodmares such as Orient, Dish Dash, Sumoto, Sticky Case and others, while they are relatively anonymous. Maybe one of two of those few I mention were just brilliantly fast, but I mean in principle.<br>And it gives you such confidence when a horse could be a bit special and has the breeding.
Don’t larf, but I latched on to Oneway a while back, because of the racing pedigree of the trainer and owner (who are either the same or family).
Fred and Mercy must have established some great contacts, and friends for that matter, in the breeding world. So why wouldn’t an old friend look out for a top notcher or three for Mark?
Perhaps a similar story with Morrison, who I believe  beongs to the family who owned Juliette Marny and  assorted distinguished progeny. I half expect him to come up with a star or two.
I’ve had a very bad run of several weeks, so when things changed for me on Saturday, in terms of winners at a good and therefore "best bets" meeting for me, I weighted the horses I most strongly fancied and understaked those I had little doubts about.
And the strangest thing happened; yet one that has recurred again and again: all but one of my naps went down: Oneway won, but Cloudy Grey fell and Gallery God  was third.
On the other hand, Self Defense, El Vaquero and Innox won (as well as one or two interest bets in smaller races and or meetings). So finally, the penny’s dropped, I hope. And I’m going to do the opposite. Bet on those I fancy but I’m nervous about. (To me Oneway was an exception, a horse who doesn’t seem to have been extended and returning ever better speed figures). Maybe I’ll soon be able to pay off my credit cards and buy a mansion with a snooker table yet! But much as I like long-shots, I don’t think I’ll bank on it…
As regards trends, I don’t believe I pay any anywhere near enough attention to trends, as I suspect the bookies are significantly influenced by them in their pricing – as well as info and everything else. (Somebody mentioned the quality of the horse, which I think ties in with the profile/speed figure).
ÂÂÂ
(Edited by Grimes at 9:31 pm on Feb. 7, 2005)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.