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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Analysing data

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 16 total)
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  • #1488384
    adminadmin
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 720

    I do a bit of analysis – excel spreadsheet stuff exclusively – and while it has been generally successful, to degrees, I increasingly feel this is quite a limited analytic approach which can take too long and which isn’t dynamic enough.

    I wondered what others do –

    What tools do you use?
    What data do you use – where do you source it?
    Any programmers out there using any stats packages (R, Python, etc)?

    Be great to hear from anyone starting out in this or people who have sophisticated set ups, and all in between.

    David (Cormack15)

    #1488633
    Dynamite21Dynamite21
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    Hi David,

    i am interested in passing on my experience of writing code and developing meaningful visual horse racing displays.

    Excel is perfect at doing this, and most people are familar with this application. Use of the powerful VBA code that lies behind this program is the key to increasing the dynamism and speed of operation.

    Lets walk before we start running… the use of Artifical Intelligence is something i am looking into. This is still relatively new to me atm. Definitely very exciting scope
    for future improvement in this area though.

    I run web scraping software and spend a couple of hours a week doing some extra data entry :mail: Just call me Mr Data… Happy to make this available to seriously keen (beginners / developers)

    D21 :good:

    #1488638
    colosus68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 80

    Ok D21

    I am after average winning distances on racetracks. Not the spread just the winning distances.

    Powers and Boyles have this intelligence.

    Lets say they haven’t and are making them in house.

    We have to start somewhere so lets start with five furlong handicaps at Dundalk.

    5F HANDICAPS DUNDALK.

    I love winning distance betting on long odds on shots

    ok

    COLOSUS

    #1488653
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26576

    What tools do I use?
    Just the one.
    Timeform Race Passes. :heart:

    value is everything
    #1488655
    colosus68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 80

    Did you know that your “beloved” timeform is owned by Flutter Entertainment.

    Paddy Powers new entity.

    Good luck with that Ginger !

    Colosus

    #1488674
    Bachelors HallBachelors Hall
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1279

    I am using openoffice calc to create a spreadsheet pertinent to juvenile hurdlers – sires, damsires, source trainers, sales history. I am having to manually input the details of the 4101 horses who have ran as juveniles since the 2012/13 season which is very time consuming but it’s an endurance exercise.

    Some code or webscraping tool would be useful although by the time I have figured out how to use them, I will have completed the spreadsheet. Especially where there are variables such as horses running for numerous trainers, ascertaining the horse’s flat handicap mark and searching for French ratings. Analysing the data is easy enough using sort functions and simple countif formulas and I can find the information I want without much hassle.

    That said, learning and acquiring useful tools and skills would make future endeavours much easier!

    #1488695
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26576

    Am aware Timeform is owned by Paddy Power (or its parent group) Colosus. tbh Was apprehensive when they took it over but they seem to have let Timeform do what Timeform want, some of the new stuff since they took over is pretty good too…

    That said, Paddy Power own Timeform… And Betfair (exchange and Sportsbook) now…
    They know I buy Timeform…
    They know my record on the betfair exchange…
    … I wonder why both Paddy Power and Sportsbook have closed – or rather, put limits on them they just as well be closed?

    value is everything
    #1488701
    Dynamite21Dynamite21
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    Yeah Gingertipster i also use TIMEFORM for my finetuning of selections.
    I consider this a “drop into your lap” service and not a personally crafted tool.

    Love the flag graphics flags
    This is what i like to create.
    VISUAL POP CANDY!!!

    D21 B-)

    ps “the snooker hybrid is clever”

    #1488702
    Dynamite21Dynamite21
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    Colosus Hmmm :scratch:

    “take a look this sample my dear”

    race date~course name~race distance~won by (lengths)
    04/01/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~1.75
    11/01/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~1.00
    01/02/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~2.50
    15/02/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~.50
    08/03/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~.10
    15/03/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~.10
    29/03/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~2.00
    17/04/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~1.00
    20/09/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~.30
    25/10/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~.75
    01/11/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~1.75
    15/11/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~.50
    22/11/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~1.00
    06/12/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~.30
    18/12/2019~DUNDALK (A.W)~5f~.20

    D21 B-)

    #1488703
    Dynamite21Dynamite21
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    Hi Bachelors Hall,

    juvenile hurdlers is a good area of study with plenty of scope for new variable generation.
    (no pun intended)

    sires, damsires, source trainers, flat OR, are easy enough to produce as a bulk data file.
    Sales information and French ratings are more difficult :scratch: to access.

    I have often thought that a jumping ability rating figure :yes: would be great data to engineer.

    D21 B-)

    ps “The ‘Juvenile’ category is only open to three-year-olds if the race takes place in October-December; or to four-year-olds for races between January and April.

    so it can get a bit complicated… does this sound like a good definition…or is the word “Juvenile” in the race title a better data marker?

    pps What about foaling date… that would be a good data field.

    #1488704
    Dynamite21Dynamite21
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    David wrote…

    Any programmers out there using any stats packages (R, Python, etc)?

    R programming language is a new one for me :-)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(programming_language)

    #1488708
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2340

    They know I buy Timeform…
    They know my record on the betfair exchange…
    … I wonder why both Paddy Power and Sportsbook have closed – or rather, put limits on them they just as well be closed?

    PP + Betfair are quick to limit you Ginge, and i’d say regardless of your Timeform membership etc. you’d have been banned/limited anyway.

    I have seen people mentioned being banned from the exchange, unless they are betting on funny business like laying low level football games. I wonder why they would be banned?

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1488765
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26576

    Banned from the exchange is a new one on me Jack. Although there was that TV documentary about people betting in obscure tennis tournaments (on each point) – having someone in the Grandstand. Umpire took so long putting the point through that the punter bet while knowing the outcome. Like you, can’t see any reason for being banned from exchanges unless skulduggery.

    value is everything
    #1488818
    Blackcountry Kid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 74

    An interesting thread David which deserves success!
    However,one should be careful for what one wishes for as an AI which becomes too good at the job it was designed to do makes little sense as it risks killing off the goose that lays the golden egg.But I’m glad to say in my experience such a thing doesn’t exist or likely to come about for the foreseeable future.
    Over my years I’ve come across many levels of ability & experience and seen many ‘systems’ touted as being infallible usually backed by a staking plan which the vendor claims to have used for years making a fortune along the way.The one question that never can be answered ……why sell to the masses if you are making a healthy living from it and in consequence alert others which will surely in the long run dilute profits?
    I’m sure people here will have read countless books about how to achieve profitable betting some good,some bad and some just complete & utter rubbish.The tomb’s more likely to succeed do have in my opinion one thing in common the depth of research & analysis needed to make betting pay.While I’ve stated previously that the effort put in pays dividends with the returns earned I don’t believe the exhaustive work is necessary to obtain the desired results.
    Overly complicating the selection process makes for indecision ……keep it simple
    With me it’s a numbers game with qualifiers registering a par value to be considered as potential selections.
    Personally I subscribe to Racehorses (have done for 40+ years now) and Racing Post website then using the knowledge learned studying Clive Holt’s books narrow the few qualifiers down to a selection.
    However I would be remiss not to point out that my methods are restrictive due to specializing in handicap sprints,class 2 & 3….and
    to tackle betting in a professional way …….have a BETTING BANK ……money if lost will not impact your living standards,discipline not to chase loses,learn from mistakes and withdraw from the game if necessary until such time a new bank is saved and confidence that the ups & downs of betting can be part of your everyday life.
    Timeform was brought by Betfair which is part of PP now renmaed Flutter.
    I’ve read that PP was originally named Flutter Entertainment some years ago so it seems a return to their roots?
    Can’t say I’ve ever heard of anyone being banned from the exchange?
    good luck to all

    #1488820
    Dynamite21Dynamite21
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    All very good and telling views Blackcountry Kid.

    The betting industry relies on “mug punters”. It’s amazing how few bettors use computer software. (visiting Timeform, RP website etc isn’t coding) and not EDGY enough.

    If someone can make 200pts profit a year with an ROI 20% (£100 per point and growing) without enslaving a PC i would describe him as GODLIKE :heart:

    My current state of genesis is to replace the labouriously stilted pencil & paper like tasks with speedy and increasingly ingenious computer output.

    Personally i know how to win money it’s the enormity of the doing it thats the difficult part. Solidarity with cohorts will make the difference imo.

    Keeping your head STRAIGHT must be nailed deep, with 10 inch jobies. Luckily enough computers NEVER gamble B-)

    Being boringly proftable is my drug, thanks to my cyborgian appendage.

    Well thats the plan :mail:

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