An old boy I know swears this one makes money.

[ahitchcott]

yes database includes all uk and ireland, its on http://www.horseracebase.com which i recommend to anyone interested in system building. donation based and getting better as each day passes

if you include irish the worst ever was a run of 37 consecutive losses of clear favourites, the worst in 08 has been 19 (again on 1st March)

i think as you can see from your results it can work but i would agree with an earlier poster about having a limit in place as otherwise eventually one day the bubble will burst (in my opinion)

incidentally if you look at clear favs in non-hcaps with between 3 and 9 runners the worst ever consecutive run was 16 (in ire or uk). in 2008 there was a run of 12 as detailed below

9.02.2008 Newbury Voy Por Ustedes (FR) Evens 2/6
9.02.2008 Lingfield Ace of Spies (IRE) 2/1 4/8
9.02.2008 Warwick Oward (FR) 9/4 PU/5
9.02.2008 Newbury Here’s Johnny (IRE) 15/8 PU/5
9.02.2008 Lingfield Hurricane Hen 8/11 2/6
8.02.2008 Wolverhampton Swallow Forest 15/8 6/6
8.02.2008 Wolverhampton Mama Leo 11/4 6/8
8.02.2008 Bangor Play On Words (FR) 7/4 2/9
8.02.2008 Bangor Armaturk (FR) 1/3 UR/6
8.02.2008 Southwell West Lorne (USA) 6/4 3/9
8.02.2008 Kempton Gwanako (FR) 4/6 3/6
8.02.2008 Southwell Bethanys Boy (IRE) Evens 2/9

[Seagull]

ahitchcott
Thanks again for your input.

Wed 5 March
ANY FAV
Bremen won the 3rd race of the day but @8/11 there was another small loss on the day of £0.54
bank to c.f £1,410.81

ANY FAV ON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
This went until the 4th race until Doubtful Sound won @6/4
profit on day £50.00

bank to c/f £249.06

[Seagull]

Thurs 6 March

ANY FAV
Jaunty Flight won 2nd race of the day.
profit on day £17.50

Bank to c/f £1,428.31

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Laredo Sound won 1st race that fitted the filter.
11/10 profit on day £11.00

bank to c/f £259.06

[Seagull]

Fri 7th March

ANY FAV
Bonchester Bridge won the 2nd race of the day @5/4

profit on day £7.50

Bank to c/f £1,435.81

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Nikola won the 1st race that fitted the filters.

profit on day £12.50

Bank to c/f £271.56

[Pompete]

May – National Hunt 2006-07
Date Race Result Stake SP Return 2500.00 P/L
30 Apr 1 L 5.00 5.00 2495.00 5.00
2 W 10.00 1.50 15.00 2510.00 10.00
1 May 1 W 5.00 2.75 13.75 2523.75 23.75
2 May 1 W 5.00 2.75 13.75 2537.50 37.50
3 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 2532.50 32.50
2 L 10.00 10.00 2522.50 22.50
3 L 20.00 20.00 2502.50 2.50
4 L 40.00 40.00 2462.50 37.50
5 W 80.00 2.50 200.00 2662.50 162.50
4 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 2657.50 157.50
2 L 10.00 10.00 2647.50 147.50
3 L 20.00 20.00 2627.50 127.50
4 W 40.00 4.50 180.00 2807.50 307.50
5 May 1 W 5.00 4.50 22.50 2830.00 330.00
6 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 2825.00 325.00
2 L 10.00 10.00 2815.00 315.00
3 W 20.00 0.91 18.18 2833.18 333.18
8 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 2828.18 328.18
2 L 10.00 10.00 2818.18 318.18
3 L 20.00 20.00 2798.18 298.18
4 W 40.00 1.50 60.00 2858.18 358.18
9 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 2853.18 353.18
2 W 10.00 0.17 1.67 2854.85 354.85
10 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 2849.85 349.85
2 L 10.00 10.00 2839.85 339.85
3 W 20.00 0.36 7.27 2847.12 347.12
11 May 1 W 5.00 1.75 8.75 2855.87 355.87
12 May 1 W 5.00 1.50 7.50 2863.37 363.37
13 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 2858.37 358.37
2 L 10.00 10.00 2848.37 348.37
3 L 20.00 20.00 2828.37 328.37
4 L 40.00 40.00 2788.37 288.37
5 L 80.00 80.00 2708.37 208.37
6 L 160.00 160.00 2548.37 48.37
7 W 320.00 1.50 480.00 3028.37 528.37
14 May 1 W 5.00 0.67 3.33 3031.70 531.70
15 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 3026.70 526.70
2 L 10.00 10.00 3016.70 516.70
3 L 20.00 20.00 2996.70 496.70
4 L 40.00 40.00 2956.70 456.70
5 W 80.00 2.75 220.00 3176.70 676.70
16 May 1 W 5.00 1.63 8.13 3184.83 684.83
17 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 3179.83 679.83
2 W 10.00 0.67 6.67 3186.50 686.50
18 May 1 W 5.00 1.10 5.50 3192.00 692.00
19 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 3187.00 687.00
2 L 10.00 10.00 3177.00 677.00
3 L 20.00 20.00 3157.00 657.00
4 L 40.00 40.00 3117.00 617.00
5 L 80.00 80.00 3037.00 537.00
6 L 160.00 160.00 2877.00 377.00
20 May 7 L 320.00 320.00 2557.00 57.00
8 L 640.00 640.00 1917.00 583.00
9 W 1280.00 1.38 1760.00 3677.00 1177.00
21 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 3672.00 1172.00
2 L 10.00 10.00 3662.00 1162.00
3 L 20.00 20.00 3642.00 1142.00
4 L 40.00 40.00 3602.00 1102.00
5 L 80.00 80.00 3522.00 1022.00
6 L 160.00 160.00 3362.00 862.00
7 L 320.00 320.00 3042.00 542.00
8 W 640.00 4.00 2560.00 5602.00 3102.00
23 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 5597.00 3097.00
2 W 10.00 0.83 8.33 5605.33 3105.33
24 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 5600.33 3100.33
2 L 10.00 10.00 5590.33 3090.33
3 W 20.00 2.25 45.00 5635.33 3135.33
25 May 1 W 5.00 2.25 11.25 5646.58 3146.58
26 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 5641.58 3141.58
2 W 10.00 0.73 7.27 5648.85 3148.85
27 May 1 W 5.00 4.50 22.50 5671.35 3171.35
28 May 1 W 5.00 0.44 2.22 5673.57 3173.57
29 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 5668.57 3168.57
2 L 10.00 10.00 5658.57 3158.57
3 L 20.00 20.00 5638.57 3138.57
4 L 40.00 40.00 5598.57 3098.57
5 W 80.00 1.75 140.00 5738.57 3238.57
30 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 5733.57 3233.57
2 W 10.00 0.67 6.67 5740.24 3240.24
31 May 1 L 5.00 5.00 5735.24 3235.24
2 W 10.00 1.75 17.50 5752.74 3252.74

I know it’s not the clearest thing to read but the above shows a £3252.74 profit for May 2006 (NH & British Only) using Seagull’s system.

I intend to work through the rest of last season over the comings weeks, on a monthly basis. I’ll post the results on here but if anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet to check my findings PM me an Email and I’ll send it over.

[Artemis]

Pompete

I have to say I admire your meticulous approach to this subject, but I can assure you that such painstaking research isn’t really necessary for two reasons.

First, what has happened in the past won’t happen again. These sequences you are looking at cannot be repeated.

Second, you can only make future predictions using a model and the theory of probability. No-one knows the future; we can only make estimates based on what we know about our model. Even then, we are on tricky ground, having to construct the model from past data.

The model, based on every race run in history, is that the horse with the best perceived chance (the favourite) wins the greatest proportion of races compared to say, the second or third choices. The data shows that the rewards for level stake betting on favourites are negative in the long run. Therefore, any system you care to construct based on backing favourites in the past would eventually have lost.

From that, you could infer that this condition will persist into the future with a very high degree of probability(about 99.99999%).

[Seagull]

pompete
I am not claiming this has anything to do with me I just know some one who does it.
I have been putting money on the non hand up to 9 runners filters.
Thanks for the input.

SAT 8 MARCH
ANY FAV
1.55 chepstow had j/f so left alone.
GotAttitude won the 2nd race Gowran Park @4/5
profit just £3.00
bank to c/f £1,438.81

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Ten Down won the 3rd race but @4/7 ensured a loss of £7.16 on day

bank to c/f £264.40

[Seagull]

Sun 9th March

ANY FAV
2.25 Hereford j/f so left out
Quillan Hill won 4th race but at 4/5 lost £3.00 on day

Bank to c/f £1,435.81

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Quillan Hill won the 1st won £8.00

Bank to c/f £272.40

[Seagull]

Mon 10th March

ANY FAV
Wheres Johnny won the 1st race of the day @11/8
profit on day £6.87

profit to c/f £1,442.68

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Wheres Johnny won the 1st race
profit on day £13.75

profit to c/f £286.15

[dave jay]

Seagull, I was only jesting about having 46 losers in a row the other day.

I dont get on the forum enough to contribute properly but just for the record I would say this.

In 2000/2001 favourites did have a positive/neutral expectation over those two years. I think it was because on-course bookies were trading off onto betfair when it first broke. Since then the fate of the favourite has been a bit like -7%. If any staking plan were to work then staking on the favourite or dutching the first two in the market is the best because of the distribution of the overround. -7% roi isnt that hard to over come.

The chances of a long losing run, 6 losers in a row @ 36% strike rate is about 7%.

If you were to bet for 250 days a year, then your break even point from the losing run perspective is (250 x 7%) or about 20 losing days a year. That would balance things out and your plan will return whatever out overround is; in the case of the favourite -7%. If your lucky and you get less than 20 losing days in a year, your quids in, if your unlucky, you’ve had it.

The old boy you know is basically gambling on the order of the results and the best of luck to him.

It would be easy to say, it will all end in tears but you cant really say that because you dont know, nobody knows.

[Sean Rua]

And I think the main point is that it doesn’t really end at all – but
we do!

[Seagull]

Dave Jay
Thanks for your reply.
Sorry but I thought you were serious about that long losing run of favourites.
Yes he is gambling on a set of results every day but some days he needs just one result.
I do understand your argument for dutching but I am only reporting on what he actually does.

Tues 11th March
ANY FAV
Reasonably Sure won the 3rd race of the day @7/4f
profit on day £20.00

Bank to c/f £1,462.68

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Reasonably Sure won the 1st race that fitted the filters @7/4
profit on day £17.50

Bank to c/f £303.65

[dave jay]

Thats fair enough Seagull .. I do think that this is a bit of a dangerous strategy, because when you have an expected strike rate of 97% (day by day) its very difficult to know if you are winning or not.

Good luck with it anyway.

[Wallace]

The longest losing run of favorites in recent years was 43 in March 2005. The average losing run in the last ten years is 14.

[Seagull]

Wallace
Since Jan this year the average losing run is 2.34. I may be wrong but I do not think the average losing run is anywhere near 14.

WED 12 MAR
ANY FAV
Silver Hotspur won the 2nd race of the day but at 4/6 made just £1.67 today.

bank to c/f £1,464.35.

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Yakimov won the first race that fitted the filters.
profit today
£4.44

bank to c/f £308.09.

[Wallace]

This year so far produces the following LLR for favorites.

Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 17

These are consecutive losing favorites based on the published race times.

[Wallace]

On the 1st March 08 the following were all clear favorites and lost.

Brave Rebellion
Count Kristo
Cardinal Spirit
Lothian Falcon
Los Nadis
Royal Auclair
Rowley Hill
Schinken Otto
Bywell Beau
Stellenbosch
Mr Pointment
First Look
Or Bleu
Classic Fiddle
Just A Thought
Scriptwriter
Planet of Sound

The average longest losing run over the last ten years is a fraction over 14

[Author]

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