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Hi Seagull,
Dont know if there is any benefit from betting largely on the earlier races in a day, suspect not. But the fact is, that to get a true reflection of the chance of going bust, you need to see a string of unending favourites since inception and see if you have ‘survived’ any run of 10 losing favs.
There may have been times you’ve won on the (say) 5th fav, only for the remainding favs on that day to have lost. Followed by the first few of the next day that would have blown the bank had the sequence have started after the 5th race of the previous day.
Continued good luck
Sean Rau
One of the shops used is William Hills in Baker Street the other as you will know is Ladbrokes just around the corner. You will also know how close tha bank and the cash points are should the need arise.
Do You use Hills in Baker Street? There are some heavy hitters there!
rgds,Seagull,
A couple of things. First, let me explain my change of mind. I based my predictions on an average price of 7/4 for favourites and a bank of £2,500.
Somewhere along the way, I’ve got it into my head that the bank is £5000 rather than half that figure. The larger bank would extend the losing sequence needed to break it. Also, I’m aware that the average price of favourites at this time of year might be lower than 7/4, and this factor obviously reduces the chances of a long losing run.I’m really pleased to hear the old boy(Mark) is doing alright – I didn’t know until your last post that he had lost his bank on several occasions. This makes the whole thing more plausible. However, despite his honesty and integrity, I would still find it hard to accept that his particular pattern of betting is profitable unless I was his bookmaker and all his bets were with me.
I know I probably come across as rather cynical and a Cassandra like prophet of doom, but many years in the betting industry and a healthy repect for mathematics have tempered my credibility in punters with a winning system. Everything I know and that of all the expert witnesses I would call upon to testify, suggests to me that we have not got all the facts in this drama.
I think you have kindly posted the daily events and kept us entertained. You have also seen some evidence and heard Mark’s story. Do you believe that the old boy makes £5000 a year out of it?
I think to try and get an understanding as why/how this type of system may be profitable it’s neccesary to look beyond the idea of ‘races being independent events the outcomes of which are down to random chance‘.
For, while on the one hand the above statement is true with regard to a specific race, does all or some of the above statement apply to the betting markets collectively?
In this system it is the efficiency of the ‘market’ that is being back.
Artemis,
I personally think Mark has won what he claims but not because the system works forever but by being very lucky it certainly has worked since I began posting the results, but there again it could have crashed on day one.It is perfectly feasible that he could have built up a profit during the last few months or even the last day of the year.
That may be the reason that he has no problem getting bets on as it is simple for betting shop managers and head office traders to see his ‘cunning plan’ as Blackadder might well have said.
I think the problem is how long is the short term basis ……………no one knows it may end today but it could go on for a year………no one knows.
The filters of non handicaps and limiting to 9 runners will also hit the buffers one day. The problem is I dont know what day!
I will stop if and when I make enough for a holiday for myself and my partner.
Only won the beer money so far!As long as I have the time I will keep posting the results up. When I go on holiday I will ask for a volunteer to keep posting the results.
With regards to methods or systems though following certain trainers trends has made a good level stake profit for each of the past 7 years both on the Flat and National Hunt but that is a seperate subject.
rgds,
I think so much of P+L depends on where and when we start or finish: ie. the cut-off points can make a difference. An accountant showed me that, years ago.
In a way, it’s all a bit like Irish music – just when you think it’s coming to an end, up it starts again! A never-ending roller-coaster that, in retrospect, was probably a helterskelter all the time.
Personally, I don’t really think anyone is totally immune from loss; things are forever changing and I guess there are plenty of Nick Leeson emulators about. I note that even JP Mac gets stick here on the main forum!
" Get it while you can; it won’t be there for ever" is something else that an old guy told me, and now I’m old, too, I think he was probably right.
Finally, Colin, ( why did a name confuse that strange guy the other day, I wonder?) I regret to say I don’t come to Brighton much nowadays. I love coming down there, but mostly my betting gets done up at the track when I’m around.
A great place on a fine day, but, like Goodwood, not so nice in the mist!
PS
I forgot to mention that I was always a fan of your Trainer Trend ideas.
Like you said, that’s another story.
A more profitable one, imo.Seagull,
I thought the trainer trends was quite impressive when I looked at it a while back. I’m sure it has possibilities for the disciplined backer – it might be worthwhile running it for a few months if a volunteer can be found to post up the selections – I’m presuming the data is still available or obtainable from published sources.
With regard to Mark, he may well have been very lucky with this system, in which case he is a rare bird. I spent about ten years in a smallish company with about 30 betting shops and I cannot recall any regular punter in any of those shops who was a consistent winner over the time I spent there. Not a single one. A few who had good runs and lucky streaks, but they all lost in the end. There were a few occasional punters and strangers who came and went over the period and might have shaded in front, but not the day- in, day- out backers. Nobody was ever barred or refused a bet because they were too shrewd. I was quite friendly with the Area and Regional managers of Ladbrokes and Corals and they never concerned themselves with their regulars, although they had to watch out for ‘clever’ money and cheats.
By the way, hope you get that holiday!
Pompete,
I think I chose my words incorrectly and apologise for the misunderstanding it might have caused.
I really meant that it is the sequences of results that are subject to random chance and not otcomes of races. Individual races are decided by numerous factors and no doubt luck plays its part, but putting races into days or cards or any other order is artificial and cannot have any bearing on the result or sequence of results.
Sorry Artemis, I understand and agree with what you’ve stated, I was just attempting to highlight what effect the of information/quality of information going into a ‘market’ from a a prior event i.e. jockeys calling the going as tacky after the first race rather than the Offical going of Good
And, how this type of information may provide this sort of system with an edge.
The staking is odd and very high risk in this system. Being prepared to accept a profit of £5 on a day and also prepared to risk thousands,seems crazy. Also the system produces the best profit (and highest risk) following a few losing bets. As my coal miner Father would have said its all ar$e for elbow!!!
Anyway a few stats on all favorites from 2007.
Races 8,047
Wins 2,714
SR 33.73%
Loss at SP -£498
Longest winning run 10
Longest losing run 16
Average odds 2.2/1
Average win odds 1.78/1Arkle,
I cannot remember where it was but I’m sure I saw threads by Seagull ( Colin) on this website or maybe another.
In these, he showed a great knowledge of trainers and their ways.In fact, I think he may have written a book about the subject.
Sorry to be so vague; my memory isn’t good, and I could be way off beam.
Seagull will put us straight, i’m sure.
—
Btw,
I’m one of those who hasn’t been able to make favourite following pay. Didn’t lose much when I tried, but a loss is a loss.
Wallace has put up the figures. The only way to try catch up the shortfall is to increase stakes. When this hits problems, then it can be difficult, to say the least!
Not for me, I must admit, though I believe some can do it.I used to write Trainers4Courses books for 7 years which was two books per year, one for the flat and one for the jumps.
I no longer write these books but compile a list which I personally use.
The reason I no longer write the books is solely because I never received all monies due to me.
The method made a level stake profit every year both on the flat and over the jumps. Google up ‘Trainers4Courses’ and you will see I have sold the copyright to a former customer of mine and he is planning to continue publishing.
Right thats enough of that.
Mon 25 Feb
ANY FAV
Morbick won the 3rd race of the day
profit on day £17.50
Bank £1,335.74ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
The worst day so far with 4 favs all losing.
Loss on day -£150.00
Bank reduced to £234.34.Just a small intrusion to apologise for muddling up "Seabird" (Colin) with "Seagull". Two different posters, I think.
Sorry about that, though it seems I wasn’t far off with the bit about trainers.Right, back to the favs!
SEAGULL
Trainers 4 courses website is not working any other thought please.Seagull how much did the books sell for .
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