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Actual OFF times to the nearest minute for the 7th. Drone is correct regarding the sequence. Haven’t followed the mathematics required to break the bank, would 11 losers do it?
Newc 2:00 – 2:00
Bath 2:10 – 2:10
Folk 2:20 – 2:21
Newc 2:30 – 2:30
Bath 2:40 – 2:43
Folk 2:50 – 2:50
Newc 3:00 – 3:00
Bath 3:10 – 3:12
Folk 3:20 – 3:22
Newc 3:30 – 3:30
Bath 3:40 – 3:42
Folk 3:50 – 3:51.. the bank bombs after 10 consequetive losers, we had this debate before because I thought it was 6.
Thanks CR
Confirmation of the times for the 9th August would certainly be appreciated if you can spare the time/be bothered
Artemis, I have been reading various forums for a while now and the points you make have been very valuable while I try and perfect what i have been trying to do. I had thought that i had found a systematic process with respect to betting on fav only. It had been working to what I considered a reasonable level but some of the comments made in forums by contributors who clearly have a lot of experience kept me on my toes and examining the things they mentioned as probable tripping up points in what im doing. I went to the extent of putting a huge amount of historical data into a spreadsheet based on my system ( roughly explained in my thread) and came out somewhat disillusioned with the rate of return. What im doing based on the historical data certainly worked but the return was too small for the amount of effort required to be worthwhile.
However being thick headed I carried on with the real money account I have and slowly my base bank has built up and 6 weeks in to using real money Im still moving forward. What has happened which is important is that instead of blindly backing favourites as I had been doing my horse racing knowledge has increased and Im now starting to make some judgements with that growing knowledge an increasing factor. There are a number of factors that i am now taking in to account and my selection of when to bet and when not to is more considered.
I started with a $55 account and 6 weeks on its now at $393 but I have made a large number of bets to get it to that point. I have had a couple of loss days where no favourites have won and those loss days are big as a proportion of my base and 1 loss day can take me 4 or 5 days to recover from. The $55 to $393 return could look quite favourable on the surface but there have been a large volume of bets made and I havent yet seen in real bets the number of non fav days appearing as the historical data I have shows appear.
Whats happening now with respect to my increasing horse racing knowledge is that Im avoiding certain race meetings when I know of certain factors and apply them. For example down here we are at the beginning of our gallops season and the general sentiment among the experienced punters down here is that early on many trainers are using these early meetings as training runs which in turn is showing through as a smaller percentage of fav wins.
So the comments of people such as yourself have been hugely valuable. The system I outlined in my thread wont work long term when its applied clinically as described but there is a chance that I may be able to make it work as i accumulate more racing knowledge and apply that knowledge where required.
6 weeks of this is certainly too short a timeframe to have any sort of certainty and if i were to have 2 or 3 non fav days hit me in a row it would hit my bank base very badly. Statistically that could quite easily happen, so far i feel I have had a decent dose of lady luck helping me out. Seagulls thread here has given me plenty of assistance and food for thought.
9th August 2009
time … course … off time … fav
210 … REDCAR … 02:11 … no
215 … DOWNPATRICK … 02:15 … no
220 … LEICESTER … 02:20 … no
230 … WINDSOR … 02:31 … no
235 … TIPPERARY … 02:36 … no
240 … REDCAR … 02:41 … no
245 … DOWNPATRICK … 02:46 … no
250 … LEICESTER … 02:52 … no
300 … WINDSOR … 03:02 … no
305 … TIPPERARY … 03:05 … no
310 … REDCAR … 03:13 … no
320 … LEICESTER … 03:20 … 15/8FMany thanks CR, just as I thought with the fav winning the 12th race
No idea what these two amended ‘bank busting’ days have done to the overall p/l of the system
That’s for Seagull to decipher, if he wishes
Yes, thanks CR ..
Massive bomb out for the system.
Seagull, you were told right in the beginning that it would all end in tears and here we are. It just goes to show that any progressive staking system does not work unless you have a level stakes profit.
Take note everyone .. don’t get suckered in.
This is Seagulls quote from the beginning of this thread
"I personally agree with you that overall it may all end in tears. "
Good on Seagull for doing this thread for so long
dave jay, forgive my ignorance here and I know for most this is a very basic question but what is a "level stakes profit"
Thanks
Stacky .. level stakes profit is when you bet a fixed amount of money of a series of bets and come out in front.
Hope that helps.
There are two things I never got to grips with on this thread.
First, the logistics of placing the bets in the required sequence. Some races would not be finished before the next leg started. This could easily happen when a 3 mile race is followed chronologically by a 6f sprint.
Second, why any bookmaker would refuse any bet on an unnamed fav.
That it has ended is no surprise, but all credit to our friend Seagull for keeping it going. It lasted much longer than I thought it would and that is hard to explain.
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