An old boy I know swears this one makes money.

[Seagull]

Wed 5th Aug

ANY FAV

Reccession Proof won 1st race 15/8
profit on day £9.37

prof/loss this year -£2,813.12
prof/loss since jan 08 +£15,971.89

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Hoof It won 2nd race 3/1

prof on day +£50.00
prof/loss this year +£138.65
prof/loss since jan 08 +£1,970.42

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Thurs 6th Aug

ANY FAV

Diamoind Duchess won 1st race 9/4
profit on day £11.25

prof/loss this year -£2,801.87
prof/loss since jan 08 +£15,983.14

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Diamond Duchesss won 1st race 9/4
profit on day £22.50

prof/loss this year +£161.15
prof/loss isnce jan 08 +£1,992.92

**************************************

Friday 7th Aug

ANY FAV

Babarasta won 2nd race 15/8
profit on day £13.75
prof/loss this year -£1,766.12
prof loss since jan 08 +£15,996.89

ANY FAV NON HAND YTO 9 RUNNERS

Babarasta won 1st race 15/8
profit on day £18.75

prof /loss this year +£179.90
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,011.67

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Sat 8th Aug

ANY FAV

Pollys Mark won 3rd race 5/2
profit on day +£35.00

prof/loss this year -£2,753.12
prof/loss since jan 08 +£16,031.89

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Manifest won 2nd race @4/7
profit on day £1.42

prof/loss this year +£161.32
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,013.09

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Sunday 9th Aug

ANY FAV

Vivachi won 10th race 15/8

profit on day £2,245.00

prof/loss this year -£508.12
prof /loss since jan 08 +£18,276.89

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Diggeratti won 5th race 10/11

loss on day -£4.56
prof/loss this year -£176.76
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,008.53

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Mon 10th Aug

ANY FAV

Ottoman Empire won 1st race 15/8
profit on day £9.37
prof/loss this year -£498.75
prof/loss isnce jan 08 +£18,286.28

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Gene Autry won 1st race 4/6

profit on day £6.67

prof/loss this year +£183.43
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,015.20

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Tues 11th Aug

ANY FAV

Berkely Court won 3rd race 4/7
loss on day £3.58

prof/loss this year -£494.79
prof/loss isnce jan 08 +£18,282.70

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Birkside won 4th race evens
profit on day £10.00

prof/loss this year +£193.48
prof/loss isnce jan 08 +£2,025.20

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Wed 12th Aug

ANY FAV

Mon Cadeaux won 2nd race 9/4
profit on day £17.50

prof/los this year -£477.29
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,300.20

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Ave won 3rd race 5/4
profit on day £20.00

prof/loss this year +£213.48
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,045.20

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@
Thurs 13th Aug

ANY FAV

Rocket Rob won 3rd race 2/1

profit on day £35.00

prof/loss this year -£442.29
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,335.20

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Waseet won 2nd race 4/11
loss on day -£2.72

prof/loss this year +£210.76
prof/loss since jan 08 +£1,042.48

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@’

Fri 14th Aug

ANY FAV

Pounced won 1st race 4/5
profit on day £4.00

prof/loss this year -£437.25
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,304.20

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Society Rock won 1st race 9/4
profit on day +£22.50

prof/loss this year +£233.26
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,064.98

[MrStacky]

Ive been following this thread with interest.

Ive been fiddling about with betting systems for a wee while now and just when I think I have it cracked I find something trips me up.

Online betting has proven a boost to getting closer to having a system which is workable. Im in New Zealand and my local bookie is this website http://www.tab.co.nz/racing/ which runs multiple meetings per day. It also covers Australian, South African and some British meetings.

So here is my latest version.

Firstly I am using the Martingale sequence however I have noted peoples thoughts and seen its failings so I have a couple of stop triggers in place.
I also dont use 1,1,2,4,8,16 etc I have dumped a 1 and use 1,2,4,8,16 etc.

I use a spreadsheet with various fomula in place which let me know how much I am winning or losing as I go through a sequence. With the online betting I use I am able to wait till the last seconds before placing a bet ensuring I do stick to a fav.

I stop betting on a race meeting the moment a selection wins. If its the first race of a meeting and the payout is meagre I still stop and move on to the next meeting. The danger is that I may have already picked the only fav to win at that meeting.

I have found that this works better with the gallops rather than harness racing. Harness racing seems to run less horses and fav dividends are less generally. Sometimes if I am up to the 8 or 16 multiplier in a dividend and my horse comes in it will be paying too low a dividend for me to make a profit from that sequence. I havent had this show up with the gallops so far.

The thing I have found when things go wrong is that I havent followed my own set of rules, for example I might start betting on a meeting a couple of races in to its running or I jump to another meeting with my sequence.

I started this 3 months ago with a real account but started with a balance of $50 (nz) I use $1 bets as my base. I did get it up to $275 and then had a horror sequence which dropped me right down to less then 60. However the loss in this sequence came when i fell asleep and the horse I had marked for the next race actually won….

My balance is currently back up to $222 and the worst sequence of losses I have had was 9 races where the fav didnt come in. I stopped at 16 on that one and then won some of the losses back in the following sequence to 8.

Interestingly when i was doing all of this with an imaginary balance of $1000 I was just creaming it and doubled the imaginary balance in 20 days. Funny how the moment you go with real money it isnt as spectacular.

I would like to have a base balance of $1000 so I can extend my sequence out by 1 or 2 more numbers but at this point Im still not convinced that in the long run this will actually work. If I end up feeling more confident later I will give it a go.

I have researched the fav winning percentages with the race meetings I follow down here and in 2 years of race results have only found a couple of meetings where at least 1 fav hasnt come in.

These websites have the results and fav indicators for the meetings I follow, the results there do give me some encouragement. If you go through the results listed its rare you find a meeting with no fav winners and the stop trigger can lessen the impact of these.

http://www.hrnz.co.nz/
http://www.harness.org.au/

Having a stop trigger has helped and trying to be disciplined about what I do is also important. The returns per race meeting generally arent that big however I do see steady small growth as it goes.

I have no knowledge of horses or betting and Im only following a slightly muddled statistical approach. I suspect if I had deep knowledge of horse racing combined with the stats approach I could do better. I think an understanding of why horses do better ( race conditions, form, jockeys, venue factors etc) is pretty important to success and its an area I will have to research some more.

Cheers

[Seagull]

Welcome to this site Mr Stacky.

All I can say is that Mark who swears by this sticks rigidly to it day after day.
He has no real interest in actual horses or races for him Sea The Stars could be a novice hurdler to him its just another horse.

[Seagull]

Sat 15th Aug

ANY FAV

Azmeel won 3rd race @8/13
loss on day £2.70

bank this year -£434.55
bank since jan 08 +£18,301.50

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Azmeel won 1st race 8/13
profit on day +£6.15

bank since jan 09 +£239.36
bank since jan 08 +£2,071.13

*****************************************

Sun 16th Aug

ANY FAV

Our Jonathon won 1st race 2/7
profit on day £1.43

bank since jan 08 -£433.12
bank since jan 08 +£18,302.93

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Same as above
profit on day £2.46

bank since jan 09 +£241.82
bank since jan 08 +£2,073.59

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Monday 17th Aug

ANY FAV

Sarsota Sunshine won 2nd race 2/1
profit on day £15.00

prof/loss this year -£418.12
prof/loss isnce jan 08 +£18,317.93

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Brief Look won 2nd race 4/7
profit on day £1.42

prof/losss this year +£243.24
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,075.01

[MrStacky]

Hi Seagull, thanks. Tell me are you doing this with real money or are you just testing the theory with an imaginary bank balance?

Cheers

[Seagull]

Mr Stacky,
The other guy does them every day in real money. If you read all the post you will see he has had trouble in getting them on as 3 bookies stopped him doing them he does them on betfair now.
When hes away his son does them for him over £18k up since Jan 1 2008 but he tells me he has made a profit each last 4 years.

I have been doing the 9 runner race non handicaps but not every day.

Tues 18 Aug

ANY FAV

Sea The Stars won 6th race 1/4
loss on day £115.00

prof/loss this year -£533.12
prof /loss since jan 08 +£18,202.93

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Sea The Stars won 1st racde 1/4
profit on day £2.50

prof/loss this year +£245.71
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,077.61

################################################

Wed 19th Aug

ANY FAV

Future Gem won 2nd race 7/2
profit on day £30.00

prof/loss this year -£503.12
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,232.93

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Showcasing won 2nd race 2/1
profit on day £30.00

pro/loss this year +£275.71
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,107.60

[Seagull]

Thurs 20th Aug

ANY FAV

Lethal Combination won 1st race @evens
profit on day £5.00

prof/loss this year -£498.12
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,237.93

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Ancient Regime won 4th race 6/4
profit on day £50.00

prof/loss this year +£325.71
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,157.60

[Seagull]

Fri 21st Aug

ANY FAV

Heritage Coast won 2nd race @4/5
profit on day £3.00

prof/loss this year -£495.12
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,240.93

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Heriatge Coast won 1stt race 4/5
profit on day £8.00

prof/loss this year +£333.71
prof/loss since jan 1 2008 +£2,165.60

[Seagull]

Sat 22 Aug

ANY FAV

Strawbeerydaiquri won 1st race 4/6
profit on day £3.33

prof/loss this year -£491.79
prof/loss isnce jan 08 +£18,244.26

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Same as above
profit on day £6.66

prof/loss this year +£340.37
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,172.26

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sun 23 Aug

ANY FAV

Mission Control won 1st race 1/4

profit on day £1.25
prof/loss this year -£490.54
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,245.51

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Mission Control won 1st race 1/4
profit on day £2.25

prof/loss this year +£342.62
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,174.51

[Seagull]

Monday 24 Aug

ANY FAV

Candyfloss Girl woin 1st race 10/3
profit on day £16.65

prof/loss this year -£473.89
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,262.16

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Liberty Trail won 2nd race 4/7
profit on day £1.42

prof/loss this year +£344.04
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,175.93

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tues 25th Aug

ANY FAV

Minquin Bell won 2nd race5/6
profit on day £3.33

prof/loss this year -£470.56
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,2665.49

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Min quin Bell won 1st race @5/6
profit on day £8.33
prof/loss this year +£352.73
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,184.26

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Wed 26th Aug

ANY FAV

Valid Point won 4th race 7/2
profit on day £35.00

prof/loss this year -£435.56
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,300.49

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

3 losers
loss on day £70.00

prof/loss this year +£282.73
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,114.26

[Seagull]

Wed 26th Aug

ANY FAV

Valid Point won 4th race 7/2
profit on day £35.00

prof/loss this year -£435.56
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,300.49

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

3 losers
loss on day £70.00

prof/loss this year +£282.73
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,114.26

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thus 27th Aug

ANY FAV

Recaclitrant won 2nd race 15/8
profit on day £13.75

prof/loss this year -£421.81
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,314.24

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

2 LOSERS
Loss on day £30.00

prof/loss this year +£252.73
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,084.26

[Seagull]

Fri 28th Aug

ANY FAV

Whippers Love won 5th race 13/8
profit on day £75.00

prof/loss this year -£346.81
prof/loss ince jan 08 +£18,389.24

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Vanishing Grey won 4th race evens
profit on day £10.00

prof/loss this year +£262.73
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,094.26

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sat 29th Aug

ANY FAV

Daffef won 1st race 13/8

profit on day £8.12

prof/loss this year -£338.69
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,397.31

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Present Alc hemy won 4th race 8/13
loss on day £26.95

prof/loss this year +£235.78
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,067.31

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sun 30th Aug

ANY FAV

Artistic Licence won 2nd race 7/2
profit on day £30.00

prof/loss this year -£308.69
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,427.36

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Sulwaan won 1st race 11/10
profit on day £11.00

prof/loss this year +£246.78
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,078.31

[Seagull]

Sunday 30 Aug

ANY FAV

Artitic Licenc won 2nd race 7/2
profit on day £30.00

prof/loss this year -£308.69
prof/loss sinve jan 08 +£18,427.36

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Sulwaan won 1st race 11/10
pofit on day £11.00

prof/loss this year +£246.78
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,078.31

@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

Mon 31 Aug

ANY FAV

Strikemaster won 4th race 10/11
profit on day £9.09

prof/loss this year -£307.33
pof/loss since jan 08 +£18,473.72

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Strike Master won 1st race 10/11

profit on day £9.09
prof/loss this year +£255.87
prof/loss sine jan 08 +£2,087.40

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tues 1st Sept

ANY FAV

Marsol won 1st race 5/4
profit on day £6.25

prof/loss this year -£301.08
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,479.97

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Marsol won 1st race 5/5
pofit on dat £12.50

prof/loss this year +£268.37
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,099.90

[Seagull]

Wed 2 Sept

ANY FAV

True Brittania won 2nd race 7/4
profit on day £12.50

prof/loss this year -£288.58
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,467.47

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Beelinsky won 4th race 6/5
loss on day £6.00

prof/loss this year +£262.37
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,093.90

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thurs 3 Sept

ANY FAV

Raines Cross won 2nd race 5/4
profit on day +£6.25

prof/loss this year -£282.33
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,413.72

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Raines Crioss won 1st race 5/4
profit on day £12.50

prof/loss this year +£274.87
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,106.40

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Friday 4th Sept

ANY FAV

Comedy Hall won 3rd race 5/6
profit on day £1.66

prof/loss this year -£280.67
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,113.06

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Mendip won 2nd race 5/6
profit on day £6.66

prof/loss this year +£281.53
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,113.06

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sat 5th Sept

ANY FAV

Youll Be Mine won 2nd race 7/4
profit on day +£8.75

prof/loss this yuear -£271.92
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,423.63

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Forty Thirty won 1st race 6/5
profit on day +£12.00
prof/loss this year +£293.53

prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,125.06

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sunday 6th Sept

ANY FAV

William Morgan won 2nd race 15/8

profit on day +£13.75

prof/loss this year -£258.17
prof/loss since jan 08 +£18,437.38

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Australia Day won 4th race 4/6
loss on day -£16.64

prof/loss this year +£276.89
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,108.42

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Monday 7th Sept

ANY FAV

Implication won 9th race 7/4
profit on day £645.00

prof/loss this year +£386.83
prof/loss since jan 08 +£19,028.38

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

1 loser
loss on day £10.00

prof/loss this year +£266.89
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,098.42

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tues 8th Sept

ANY FAV

Mc Murdo Sound won 1st race 5/6
profit on day £4.16

prof/loss this year +£649.16
prof/loss since jan 08 +£19,086.54

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

2 losers
loss on day £30.00

prof/loss this year +£236.89
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,068.42

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Wed 9th Sept

ANY FAV

Audacity Of Hope won 1st race 3/1
profit on day £15.00

prof/loss this year +£679.10
prof/loss since jan 08 +£19,101.54

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Hitsandallegations won 1st arce 6/5
profit on day £12.00

prof/loss this year +£248.89
prof/loss since jan 08 +£2,080.42

[Drone]

Monday 7th Sept

ANY FAVImplication won 9th race 7/4
profit on day £645.00

prof/loss this year +£386.83
prof/loss since jan 08 +£19,028.38

Hi Seagull

Think you’ll find that’s wrong. Assuming races were off on time I make it:

Corton Charlemagne 11/8F 3.50 Folkestone won the 12th race, which presumably means the bank was wiped out

[Seagull]

Hi Drone
I think by the races went off I was correct but will re check them.
I have always attempted to get all the figures correct to the nearest penny.

rgds

[Drone]

Sunday 9th Aug
ANY FAV
Vivachi won 10th race 15/8

profit on day £2,245.00

prof/loss this year -£508.12
prof /loss since jan 08 +£18,276.89

This also needs checking as I make it the 12th race, which again means bank is lost I believe?

You are including Irish races, yes?

The RP online results don’t include actual off-times so can’t be entirely certain I’m right.

Been following your experiment with some interest, particularly after last year’s extraordinary result, which if my corrections to the above two days are right would appear to be very much the statistical ‘blip’ Artemis, Wallace and others believed it was. The bank will have been lost three times this year which means last year’s profits will have been wiped out – and then some – I’d guess.

It goes without saying that experiments like this are pointless without accurate data and if this thread is to be given the prominence it has on the test pages of the new website when ‘going live’ then it would do the good name of TRF no favours at all if it was proven to be wildly incorrect.

I’ll leave it with you to ponder. I’m going west for the duration of the NH close season

Whatever, thanks for keeping the thread going.

[Author]

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