An old boy I know swears this one makes money.

[Seagull]

Thurs 31 Jan
Any fav and race
It was not until the 8th race today until the first fav won.
(In the 9th race another fav won)
King Troy won @13/8 so should have been £640 on which made a profit today of £401.85
Total to c/f +£627.84

Any fav in non hand up to 9 runners.
Today I backed Another Genepi £10 lost
West End Lad £20 lost
Cryptic £40 on bf got 2.745 (7/4) sp was 6/4
profit after comm £67.70
Total to c/f £197.46

[snowman]

Seagull,

If you got 7/4 on Cryptic then your profit on that race may be £67.70 after comm, but surely profit on the day is only £37.70, allowing for the two losers at £10 & £20 respectively?

It is this figure that should be added to profit c/fwd methinks.

[Seagull]

Snowman
yes sorry I forgot to deduct the £30 sobs on the 2 losers
The profit to c/f should be £167.46.

I use betfair a lot but not solely so I have listed these bets seperately in my diary.

On the matter of flipping a coin heads or tails or betting on a red or black in a casino I realise overall it must be always be evens.

But do you think that becuse it is well documented that winning favourites in horse racing have for years have around a 33% strike rate that after a few losing favourites the odds alter in favour of the next one winning?

So is it safe to assume therefore then betting whether or not the next fav will win or not and flipping a coin to fall heads or tails should not be linked?

Grand Lodge,
The Lingfield scenario you mentioned would have only occured if that was the days sole meeting.

rgds,

[snowman]

Seagull,

The 33-34% favs win stat is based on very long runs indeed.

Adrian Massey shows these stats for a complete year for example and whilst I do agree with Grand Lodge’s ‘feeling better’ about looking for a fav after (say) 3 losing favs, in reality the 33-34% norm is not necessarily going to occur per meeting or even per day, maybe not even per week.

EG Toss a coin 10 times, you may get 5 of each. Toss it another 90 times so that you have 10 results of 10 tosses each and I wouldn’t be at all surprised in one of the samples to see 8 of one and only 2 of the other or maybe even 9 & 1.

It is trying to apply the long run averages to a short run that sees many casino gamblers going broke, so I’m afraid I don’t agree at all that (say) seven losing favs means that the next has a bigger chance than if 3 of the 7 had in fact won. It is this mentality that Artemis referred to when he mentioned casino gamblers that wait for 5 red spins and then back black, theorising that black now has a ‘better’ chance.

[Seagull]

Snowman
I am still of the opinion that it will overall all end in tears.

However if one looks at the Adrian Massey stats kindly provided by Wallace they do look remarkedly consistent.

I think that it is safe to assume that if all the figures are correct that the 18 years figures are ample enough to provide enough data.

If one looks at the yearly figures from the past 18 seasons in 15 out of the last 18 years the overall strike rate for favs winning has been between 34% -37% in 15 out of the past 18 seasons.
(I note that it is currently high on 38% so it is highly likely to fall soon)

If one then looks at the Monthly data provided the figures again are again quite consistent normally falling between 34-36%

Adrian Massey has even listed the daily percentages for the past 18 years and again they are remarkably consistent and vary from 34% to 36%.

I think that if one had been tossing a coin to fall heads or tails over the same number of times as the number of races as Adrian has listed over the past 18 years it would still be around a few decimal places from evens.

[grand lodge]

"As snowman points out, it is an example of gambler’s fallacy because each race is independent of any other race as far as favs are concerned."

Maybe with coin tossing because the chance (50%) remains constant has does the number of sides (two) to the coin. Casino games will also have fixed odds to a fixed amount of numbers/colours – none of them disappear during the game, changing the odds.

Take horse racing (you guy’s can do the math’s); The fav has, roughly a 30% chance of winning one of the seven races at a meeting:

To simplify things, we shall look at it this way; Mr Fav has a 9/4 (30% ish) chance of winning a 7-runner race. One runner drops out a few hours before the off. Does Mr bookmaker keep Mr Fav at 9/4? Just a minute, another horse has dropped out before the off! What price Mr Fav?

[Artemis]

grand lodge,

I’m not recommending adopting a losing mentallity, just suggesting that racing is an entertainment that must be paid for. The majority of betting office punters do not expect to make a profit in the long run, rather they enjoy the social aspect of the experience, expecting to win some days but lose most.

This social aspect of betting office life (and many other forms of gambling) has been well chronicled by sociologists. From my own experiences as a former betting office manager and also regular punter(many moons ago), I believe that this social aspect is an important factor in the continuing success of many betting offices in the face of competition from the internet.

On another point, you may be right about judicious use of filters to make a selection. There are a few that I’ve found which the betting public tend to overlook. A lot of people try to build their systems around these neglected filters in the hope of beating the market, and this part of the forum has been a good place over the last few years for discussing these filters.

I know that you are well aware of the obvious pitfalls of chasing losses by backing favourites and any remarks I made about that were certainly not directed towards you, more for the general reader(what few there are!).

Seagull,

True, horse racing is not roulette, but the laws of probabilty apply to both. The main difference is that roulette wheels will obey the laws to fixed and known percentages for evermore, while horse racing’s percentages are subject to human influence and hence changeable over time. 33% of successful favourites is historical: this might shift in the future due to factors such as field sizes, betting margins, better information etc.
For all practical purposes, it can be assumed that the odds for each favourite are proportionate to its chance of success and each race is an independent event, unaffected by the results of previous races at other meetings or the same meeting*.

*It could be argued that a run of successful or losing favourites might actually depress the price of the favourite in the LAST race, for two reasons. If all previous favourites have won, there may be a considerable amount of running-up money for the last favourite causing the price to shorten. If all previous favourites have lost, bookmakers might feel that punters will pile onto the last favourite at virtually any price using the psychology of the ‘gambler’s fallacy’. Both of these are cases of favourites at a ‘false’ price, probably an area worthy of a topic on its own.

[snowman]

Seagull,

The percentages stand up of course, but it is asking them to stand up in VERY short runs that is the problem.

Walk into any casino that displays the previous numbers at roulette tables, you will soon see runs of 10 or more of one colour or the other, odds or evens, high or low and this from a bet that is practically evens. By the end of the day it may be roughly 50/50 in %age terms but ‘dipping in’ for 20 spins you cant expect the stats to hold up.

[Seagull]

Fri 01 FEB

any fav any type of race
1st lost
2nd Forest Penant won @evens profit on day £5.00
Profit to c/f £632.84

any non hand up to 9 runners
1st King Daniel won @9/4 profit on day +£22.50
(was at a birthday meal out so did not actually back that one)
Profit to c/f £167.46

[snowman]

Seagull,

Even though you didn’t back it, I think you should still include the £22.50 profit in the system’s results. After all the system won even if you did not profit personally from the selection

[JimF]

There is something really alluring about this thread, even though I am firmly in the "it can only end in tears camp". I keep coming back to check, and the bottom line keeps increasing in an attractive sort of way. It also pushes ‘greed’ buttons for me, in the sense of, "take my money and increase it in the same way".

But, and here is the punchline, for those that believe in the underlying statistical distribution, as I do, the bank WILL (inevitably) increase every single day, until … tears. Still, it is fun to observe, but sad that I will eventually think, "told you so". Until then, good luck to you.

[Seagull]

Snowman
Of course you are correct. I did realise that although I did not back King Daniel the results should be included.
I just forgot to ammend the profit /loss in my diary.

Otherwise the results would be incomplete and unreliable and if there was a day where it went t*ts up and for some reason I had other things to do or heavens above claim not to have backed any on the inevitable day the method failed that also would make posting all this up a complete waste of time.

On thursday 31 Jan I understand from someone who knows the old boy Mark that he did indeed have £640 on KingTroy so it seems he is actually still doing this.

Sat 2nd Feb.
ANY FAV
1ST won lost
2nd ASHKAZAR WON 4/7 (0.571)
profit on day +0.70
proffit to c/f £628.54

ANY FAV NON HAND UP TO 9 RUNNERS
1ST won Ashkazar won did this in Lad****s
profit on day +5.70
ammended prof to c/f £195.60.

[Seagull]

Sun 3 Feb

ANY FAV
5TH WON Western Gale won evens
Profit on day +£5.00

PROF TO C/F £633.35

ANY FAV NON HAND UP TO 9 RUNNERS
1ST Simba Sun lost
2ND Western Gale won evens

Profit on day +£10.00

PROF TO C/F £205.50

[Seagull]

Mon Feb 4
any type of race
1st Cerebus lost
2nd Whats For Tea won evens

profit on day £5.00

profit to c/f £638.54

any non hand to 9 runners
1st race Whats For Tea won evens
profit on day £10.00

profit to c/f £215.60

[Seagull]

Any Fav any race
Hopkins won the 6th race baut at 2/5 lost £91.00 on day

profit to c/f £547.54

Any fav non hand to 9 runners
Hopkins won 2/5
prof on day +4.00

prof to c/f £219.60

[Seagull]

wed 6th Feb

ANY FAV
1ST RACE MINSTER SHADOW WON EVENS
PROFIT DAY £5.00

PROFIT TO C/F £552.24

ANY FAV NON HAND
1ST RACE MINSTER SHADOW WON EVENS
PROFIT ON DAY £10.00

PROFIT TO C/F £229.64

[snowman]

The show rolls on!

Keep going Seagull

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