An old boy I know swears this one makes money.

[Drone]

Spot on Artemis

A classic case of counter-intuition

[LetsGetRacing]

I worked it out as consecutive rolls of the same dice

My apologies.

[Seagull]

Wed 20 April

ANY FAV
Roasleen won 3rd race (where no j/fs) @15/8

profit on day £22.50

bank to c/f £4,834.67

ANY FAV NO HNAD TO 9 RUNNERS
Rosaleen won 1st race @ 15/8

profit on day £18.50

bank to c/f £617.26

Artemis,
Spoke by telephone to Mark last night.
He is expecting a losing day and to lose around half the profits only because it has happened in the past.

He is of the opinion however that one cannot factor in what day this may occur just on starting prices and at what rate an even money shot for example may win.

He thinks ‘on the odds’ an even money shot should win half of the time but as we all know they do not.
If one factors in the bookmakers overounds the even money chance should probably be around 11/10 anyway and a 4/5 horse after the overounds should be around evens.

So unless one knows exactly at what percentage an even money chance actually wins at and all other prices also he thinks there is no way any one can predict at what day 9 favs will lose in a row.

So if there were 8 races with all favourites starting at evens unless 4 won and 4 lost all the time no one could confidently predict at what day he may lose half the winnings and at what day he can expect to lose the other half.

He expects to make around £5,000 this season based solely on the fact he has done so for the last few years.

P.S.
He may or not have some idea of the maths I dont know but he said he used to work at Parker Pens ‘quite high up’ in the accounts department.

[Artemis]

Fair comment, Seagull.

Horse racing, dogs, football etc. are not quite the same as dice, cards and roulette because of the variability of the odds. However, the maths(statistics) is just the same.

The average price for a favourite varies according to field size and quality of the racing whereas it’s always evens for red/black in roulette.

The margins working against the backer at SP ensures that it is impossible for the guessing punter to make a profit unless he is lucky enough to hit a big accumulator or a jackpot.

The unnamed favourite backer is the archtype guesser and is always welcome in the betting office or anywhere else that takes a bet because they are perpetual losers.

The idea that applying a staking plan to a losing type of bet can transform it into a winning one is a proposition I will never be able to accept. If I was a layer, with resources, I would gladly accept any bets of this type up to a reasonable limit. I cannot believe any major bookmaker would refuse any bet on an unnamed favourite up to about £10,000.

[dave jay]

You also have to bear in mind Artemis, that winning and losing on the day isn’t really whats at stake here. Chasing losses can actually cause gambling addiction, so long as everyone is aware of that then there’s no problem.

The bookies don’t all have warnings on their websites telling people not to chase losses for nothing, or because they want to. Its because this method of betting is no good, its self taught pathalogical behaviour.

Just suppose, this or any other system which links 6 unrelated events per day by martingale staking was used successfully by a gambler of four or five years. That would take him more than 1000 betting sequences to get there. He hadn’t had a serious run of bad luck, so he had never lost his bank.

Then one day he has a run of bad luck and he blows his bank. Does he use another bank? Does he stop for a pre-determined period of time? Does he throw it in completely? Lets say he has a reserve bank and he’s really unlucky and he blows that as well, then what? Does he stop, or get out another reserve bank?

I would suggest that he cant stop, it’s like deciding to take heroine everyday for four years and then just giving it up because you have run out of money.

If it can happen it will and the longer you do it the more likely it is to happen.

[Seagull]

Dave Jay
I agree with you over continually chasing losses.

Mark stops after 9 sole favourites in a row have lost so in a way if that is what he does and keeps to it he could be classed as not chasing losses.

Mark does no other bets except these. So I think he is not a ‘problem gambler’ as such. He does nothing except these bets until the first winner and then departs from the betting shop.

I do not actually think he has any problem with this as he expects to lose £2,550.00 on various days through out a year.

It seems to be he is not risking the weeks food money to blindly chase losses occured earlier in the day

On the figures today (£4,869.67) he can afford to lose it nearly twice without touching his original bank. I started posting his results on Jan 1st although I knew about him for a while and what he was doing.

On the current rate he has been making an average of £1,208 per month for each of the first 4 months of this year and if this current rate was maintained that would make him £14,500.00 for this year but he only expects to come out £5k in front.

So he has factored in to expect big losing days.

I agree it goes against all logic as he expects to lose heavily some days and I think can take that on board.

On a personal front I have been doing the non hand to 9 runners and while I do not expect to make much I do not expect to lose as there are not normally that many races per day that fit the filters I have put in place.

Thursday 1 May
ANY FAV
Knavesmire won the 3rd race @5/2

profit on day £35.00

bank to c/f £4,869.67

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Knavesmire won the 1st race @5/2 (got 3.62 betfair)

profit on day (sp) £25.00

bank to c/f £642.26[/b]

[dave jay]

Seagull, he doesnt know he’s a problem gambler until he has a long losing run, that’s the whole point.

[Seagull]

Friday 2 May

ANY FAV
Most likely won the 1st race @3/1

profit on day £15.00

Bank to c/f £4,884.67

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Most Likely won 1st race @3/1

profit on day £30.00
bank to c/f £672.26

[Seagull]

Sat 3 May

ANY FAV
Orion D’Oudaires won 1st race

profit on day £7.50

bank to c/f £4,892.17

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Heaven Sent won 1st race @6/4

profit on day £15.00

bank to c/f £687.26

Sun 4 MAY
Divine Power won 4th race @2/1

profit on day £45.00

Bank to c/f £4,917.17

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

4 losers
loss on day £310.00

profit to c/f £241.74

[Seagull]

Mon 5th May

ANY FAV
Shampagne won the 1st race of the day @13/8

profit on day £8.10

bank to c/f £4,945.27

ANY FAV NON HANDTO 9 RUNNERS

one loser on day
loss on day £10.00

bankto c/f £231.74

[Seagull]

Tues 6 May
The method went to the distance today as it was not until the 9th race of the day that the first favourite won.

ANY FAV
Look So won the 9th race of the day @10/11.
total staked up and including 8th race £1,275.00

Look So returned £1,163.52 plus stake

loss on day £111.48

bank to c/f £4,833.79

ANY NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Robbers Glen won 4th race @8/13
loss on day £10.80

bank to c/f £220.94

[Seagull]

Wed 7th May

ANY FAV
Deadly Encounter won the 2nd race of day @5/2

profit on day £20

bank to c/f £4,846.79

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Deadly Encounter won 2nd race that matched the filters

profit on day £40

bank to c/f £264.94

[Seagull]

Thursday May 8th

ANY FAV
Green Propsect won 6th race @ 7/4

profit on day £125.00

bankto c/f £4,978.79

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Dr Freemantle won 3rd race @11/8

profit on day £25.00

bank to c/f £289.94

[Seagull]

Friday 9 May

ANY FAV
Art Princess won the 3rd race of the day @evens

profit on day £5.00

bank to c/f £4,983.79
( Seems slow to make profit this week but the loss of £111.48 on the 6th May which incidentally was the biggest days loss so far stopped it breaking the £5,000 profit barrier.)

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Zilcash won the 3rd race @10/11

profit on day £6.36

bank to c/f £293.60

[Seagull]

Sat 10th May

ANY FAV

Blue Bajan won the 4th race @4/1

profit on day £125.00

bank to c/f £5,108.79

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Red Rocks won 1st race

profit on day £6.67

BANK TO C/F £300.27

[Seagull]

Sunday 11th May

ANY FAV
Haddaaf won the 1st race of day @evens

profit on day £5.00

bank to c/f £5,113.79

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Fourt Acers won the 2nd race @4/9

loss on day £1.20

bank to c/f £299.07

[Seagull]

Mon 12 May

ANY FAV
Brenin Tarin won the 3rd race of the day
but at just 2/5 loss of £8.00 on day

bank to c/f £5,106.76

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Brenin Tarin won the 1st race
profit on day £4.00

bank to c/f £304.07

[Author]

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