An old boy I know swears this one makes money.

[LetsGetRacing]

Have only just stumbled across this…

Unless you’re unlucky enough to bet on a day without a winning favourite you’re a guaranteed a return using this system, though no profit is assured should the winning favourite be odds-on. It’s basically the same as putting £1 on red on a roulette table and doubling up until you win, a profit of £1 always being guaranteed (assuming your bank is sufficiently large to cope with numerous consecutive defeats).

So the only time such a system is ever likely to pay off is if you have 3, 4 or 5 (or more, of course) consecutive losing favourites and end up having a large stake on the winner of a big handicap (where the price is likely to make for a substantial return).

Does T4C somehow stand for chasing money?

[Seagull]

LGR
Thank you for your observations. No one has come up with such a definative reply as yours so far.

Maybe you are a follower of Fibonacci and his famous sequences or could it be that you understand Pascal’s triangles where it determines probabilities and solves problems concerning combinations?

Or was it was that time of the night where you were alone with a few cans of Special Brew.

[Seagull]

Sun 27th April

ANY FAV
Pepporoni Pete won 1st race @2/1

profit on day £10.00

bank to c/f £4,784.14

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Shavansky won 2nd race

profit on day £32.50

Bank to c/f £574.76

[arkle55]

LETSGETRACING
Would you happen to know which is the most likely on a roulette table
RED RED -BLACK BLACK-RED BLACK-BLACK RED

[Seagull]

Mon 28th April

ANY FAV
Nawamees won 3rd race @6/4
profit on day £15.00

bank to c/f £4,799.14

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Nawamees won 2nd race @6/4
profit on day £20.00

bank to c/f £594.76

[LetsGetRacing]

I’d answer your question, arkle55, but I’m not sure that I know what it is.

If you’re asking which of the, I presume, four combinations is most likely to come up then it’s a fairly simple answer…

[arkle55]

LETSGORACING
Sorry for the confussion , the question should have been put in exactly the same way as to what you have written. Which is the most probable outcome , and would you happen to know the %figure as well please.

THANK YOU
PAUL

[arkle55]

SEAGULL
I see the system is still going strong, well done to you as it’s lasted a lot longer than most people thought the system would . I wonder how many of the knockers of the system are know actually playing the system.

[LetsGetRacing]

The percentage chance of any combination of two colours is the same, arkle55, as each event is independent from the other – in much the same way that you have just as much chance of rolling 1-5 on a dice as you do 2-3 (both 1 in 36, and hence 35/1).

The chance of hitting either red or black is a little less than evens in each case given the presence of the green zero (and additional double-zero in the case of American roulette), with the equivalent percentage being 48.65. The chances of winning on any two-colour combination then is a little less than 1 in 4, or 3/1, the percentage being around 23.67.

The example I gave previously, about doubling your stake, assures a win of £1 whenever you place a winning bet – assuming of course that you place a bet of £1 to begin with. If you place a starting bet of greater than £1, though it must still be an odd amount, then you guarantee a profit to the same value as long as you don’t ‘win’ on your second spin.

And that’s the basic principal behind this ‘system’, though a loss would be devastating should a) no favourite win on any given day, or b) a significant number of favourites lose prior to a large stake bet on a horse at short odds (less than evens). Conversely it will only ever yield a large return if a significant number of favourites lose, prompting a large stake bet on a favourite in a competitive race (leading to a relatively big price).

[Nathan Hughes]

SEAGULL
I see the system is still going strong, well done to you as it’s lasted a lot longer than most people thought the system would . I wonder how many of the knockers of the system are know actually playing the system.

Im currently useing the system’s stake plan but with football draws, it’s a slow burner and wont make me rich quick but it’s made a profit so far.

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[Artemis]

LGR and Nathan,

You might profit from looking back through the thread. The certain failure of such systems as this one is discussed in detail.

[LetsGetRacing]

I think I understand it well enough, Artemis, and have gone through numbers in a roundabout way in my previous posts.

The system will only prove successful if a winning favourite is backed, at a relatively decent price, within the first three or four of races. Any significant run of losing bets would lead to unmanageable stakes, prompting either a) a massive loss, b) a reduced loss should the resulting winner be odds-on, or c) a large, if unlikely, return should the increased stake be bet on the winning favourite of a competitive handicap (11 losing bets and then a winning 7/1 favourite is a tidy return, for example).

[cormack15]

I have two die.

What are the chances that I’ll get a 5 and a 1 on the first occasion I throw them both together? (Not a trick question btw.)

[Seagull]

Tues 29 April

ANY FAV
Yakimov wonthe 3rd race but @2/5
lost £7.00 on day

bank to c/f £4,812.17

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Yakimov won the 1st race that fitted the filters @2/5

profit on day £4.00

bank to c/f £598.17

I personally have been doing the ones with the filters. I do not expect to win much but as there are never that many races per day that fit the filters I do not expect to lose the bank of £2,500.00.

I telephoned Mark the other day to enquire how he’s doing and he said he still gets on ok but has not had to risk large sums in the past few weeks.
Mark said he stops when he ever the 9th bet loses that is the one where he has staked £1,280.00 on.

The reason is, has he said he had already told me is that he just feels sick at losing £2,500 in one day. The actual figure is £2,555.00 the total lost if the first 9 in a row lose.
So when it has 9 losers in a row on any one day I should except defeat on that day as he does and then re start afresh the following day.

He is expecting 9 in a row to lose soon but he still maintains he comes out in profit.
I told him someone on the Internet (Artemis) expects it to go bust on 16th May.
He said he thinks its impossible to guess what day.

[Drone]

I have two die.

What are the chances that I’ll get a 5 and a 1 on the first occasion I throw them both together? (Not a trick question btw.)

17/1

a ‘double’ would be 35/1

[LetsGetRacing]

If I have understood corm’s question, Drone, he is asking what the chance is of rolling a 5 on one dice, and a 1 on another. As both events are independent, and the chance of any outcome equal, the odds are 35/1.

[Artemis]

There are two ways to achieve 5 and 1 because either die can fall as 5 or 1.(when both thrown together). If they are thrown independently, it will be 5/1(0.167 probability) and 5/1 coupled, as in a double = 35/1

Therefore there are 2 chances from 36, or 17/1.

Seagull,

I did not say the system would fail on a particular day. What I did say was that given an average price(which varies), such a system has a 99% probability of failing within a set period, which is entitrely dependent on the average odds of the bet. My prediction was based on the estimated average odds at the time I made it. I do not and cannot know when any system might fail. I only know when such things are likely or unlikely to happen based on probability calculations.

[Author]

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