An idea

[RichNFord]

Here are the entries in a thread on another forum, the first by someone else, the second by me, nobody on there has anything to say so hopefully more joy here!

Rich

[RichNFord]

Posted: 13 April 2004 at 2:25pm | IP Logged    

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hello , i’m going to post my new system selections ,

but firstly a system that produces good profits that i have noticed for all those able to bet on the off is ,

racingpost forcast price of fav 7/4 or shorter and second favourite is forcast 11/4 or bigger, now back the favourite of the race if it is not the forcast favourite regardless of price unless the forcast favourite is a non runner . for obvious reasons selections  can only be confirmed on the off , produces 10-15 bets sometimes more sometimes less a week with good profits gained.

back to my new system

305 chep shadalko

245 extr blue endevour

425 extr spring pursuit

[RichNFord]

Posted: 20 April 2004 at 8:29pm | IP Logged    

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I was intrigued by the above ‘7/4 – 11/4’ system put forward by Seaweed and decided to do a little research.

While there are nowhere near as many selections as suggested (around 3-4 a week by my calculations) it is absolutely true that this generates a good profit if you go as far back as July, indeed the SR can be increased to 50% with an equally generous ROI over that period if you ignore flat handicaps and stick to handicap & novice events over the jumps. I was even beginning to think that some kind of Fibanaci plan could be employed!

However if you go back further it seems the total opposite is true, the overall profit curve looks like one of those upside-down boob diagrams, and indeed going back to 2001 a high proportion of races were actually won by the drifting forecast favourite!

I am a little unsure as to why this should be, I’d like to put forward a couple of suggestions and seek some informed comment…..

1) It’s one of those systems that works for a period of time and then it’s crap, then it works then it’s crap and so on, meaning you never quite know if it’s safe to join in.

2) Like the Kersley Novice Hurdle system (and a few others I dare say) which has also adhered to a boom-bust cycle, it depends on the forecast odds in the RP and therefore on the opinion of the forecaster. The accuracy or not as the case may be can vary considerably, especially if a different person takes over, or indeed if different people do different races on the same day even. Are these forecast odds calculated by the person who does the Spotlight Verdict? Is there perhaps a more accurate (consistent?) way of coming up with this/similar info? Ideally one that can be backchecked!

3) Perhaps with the advent of tax free betting over the past few years, the amount of info available and the ease with which bets can be placed these days, it is the Live Market’s accuracy which is the key, creating more genuine favourites from such situations, which could account for the more recent profit upturn.

Any comments from you guys would be welcome.

Rich

[JAR]

Hi<br>Why not use two sources of forecast odds and only bet in the races where both sources broadly agree and discard those races where the odds differ.<br>

[snowman]

Hi Rich,

Seem to remember one quite similar to this. Although it was based on the price difference, it was set up on a %age difference. I think it was where 2nd fav was double the price of fav (or more, obviously) and then, as in Seaweed’s system, you backed the eventual fav if different from the original, as long as the original was still running. Can’t remember wether any great claims were made for it, but maybe you can have a look and build a hybrid of the two plus something like John’s suggestion of more than one f’cast price source.

Good luck.

[Author]

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