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Im going to the Grand National for the first time this year, pretty excited about it. It’l be a lot different to newcastle hexham and carlisle like im used to. Hoping to se a few good horses. with Cheltenham just finishing been hearing trainers and owners talking abot taking their horses to aintree or punchestown [long run, peddlers cross, celestial halo] just wondering if these horses were going to aintree would it be likely to be on the saturday as im only going that day, i know the grade 1 aintree hurdle is that day. Cheers
I am hoping to see Cue Card, Spirt Son and Al Ferof and co in the first on the Friday. One of them will make my day. Menorah just touched off after Supreme glory last year.
I tend to back horses that bypassed Cheltenham as I think Aintree comes too soon after hard races. Good luck on your first visit with whatever you back and, win or lose, I’m certain you’ll have a cracking day out.
I tend to back horses that bypassed Cheltenham as I think Aintree comes too soon after hard races.
I dont know whether this is a good idea. I have tried this tactic for the last 5 years to no profit whatsoever.
I think when you are looking at Aintree you are better to look for previous course form and ignore the Cheltenham form from the month previous.
In the interests of pure after-timing (to some extent), 8 horses I backed at Cheltenham last year won at Aintree – and I only backed 3…
I tend to back horses that bypassed Cheltenham as I think Aintree comes too soon after hard races.
I dont know whether this is a good idea. I have tried this tactic for the last 5 years to no profit whatsoever.
I think when you are looking at Aintree you are better to look for previous course form and ignore the Cheltenham form from the month previous.
I agree that my statement looks s bit silly based on last year’s results but I’m going by the last 20+ years of form over the 2 festivals. Also, there were less than 3 weeks between them some years & that makes a difference, imo, after some hard races in the mud at Cheltenham. I think the form holds up well when there’s been at least 3 week break and decent ground.
I tend to back horses that bypassed Cheltenham as I think Aintree comes too soon after hard races.
I dont know whether this is a good idea. I have tried this tactic for the last 5 years to no profit whatsoever.
I think when you are looking at Aintree you are better to look for previous course form and ignore the Cheltenham form from the month previous.
I agree that my statement looks s bit silly based on last year’s results but I’m going by the last 20+ years of form over the 2 festivals. Also, there were less than 3 weeks between them some years & that makes a difference, imo, after some hard races in the mud at Cheltenham. I think the form holds up well when there’s been at least 3 week break and decent ground.
Yes that makes sense given the conditions of the ground, I dont think horses that have had hard races at Cheltenham in soft conditions seem to struggle to recover in 3 weeks (especially when they are back in listed races or very competitive handicaps). The other thing about Aintree is that you should steer clear of short priced favourites ie. Imperial Commander, Denman.
With there being 3 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree i would not discard all runners. There are certain races that Festival runners thrive in here but the horses that had hard races (Denman, Bobs Worth, Kauto Star) i would be wary of.
I can tell you the following races often get won by horses that took part at the festival:
Liverpool Hurdle
Matalan Anniversary Hurdle
Totesport Bowl
Mildmay Nov Chase
Mersey Nov Hurdle
Maghull Novice Chase
Have a great day
I was alongside Paddy Brennan on an Aintree preview panel a couple of years ago and he was asked about Cheltenham horses running at Aintree.
His view was that the recent trend to provide good to soft ground at Cheltenham by means of watering had improved the prospects of horses trying to double up, as they were less likely to come back from Cheltenham sore and/or exhausted after running flat out on quick ground in fast times.
He said that horses which might have needed two weeks off after Cheltenham five years ago, were now back cantering after a week and therefore in better shape going to Aintree.
Of course this year, especially on the third and fourth days on the New Course, the ground was much quicker than has been normal in recent years, reflected in the fast times and course records. So if he’s right, and it seems a plausible theory, the Gold Cup, Ryanair and Triumph horses might be less able to repeat their form.
I’d add that imo, some horses find it easier to double up nowadays, because the race conditions at Aintree have changed to reduce the number of horses that carry a penalty for wins earlier in the season.
AP
Anyone got any stats on horses that have double in the last 3 years or so?
I can only think of:
2010:
Big Bucks (Liverpool hurdle)
Albertas Run (JS Melling chase)
Peddlers Cross (Mersey Novices hurdle)2009:
Big Bucks (Liverpool hurdle)2008:
Our Vic (Totesport Bowl)
Tidal Bay (JS Maghul Novices Chase)Katchit, Detriot City, Oh Crick, Katarino, Star De Mohaison, Black Jack Ketchum are others since 2006.
There have also been quite a few that finished second at Cheltenham and won at Aintree – Mighty Man, Binocular, Walkon, Exotic Dancer, Strangely Brown, Straw Bear, Voy Por Ustedes (twice), Gwanako, Tidal Bay (over hurdles), Kalahari King, Silver Birch, Burton Port, Khyber Kim.
Makings of a system here – only back horses in non handicaps at Aintree that finished in the first two at Cheltenham. It certainly produces plenty of winners.
AP
Katchit, Detriot City, Oh Crick, Katarino, Star De Mohaison, Black Jack Ketchum are others since 2006.
There have also been quite a few that finished second at Cheltenham and won at Aintree – Mighty Man, Binocular, Walkon, Exotic Dancer, Strangely Brown, Straw Bear, Voy Por Ustedes (twice), Gwanako, Tidal Bay (over hurdles), Kalahari King, Silver Birch, Burton Port, Khyber Kim.
Makings of a system here – only back horses in non handicaps at Aintree that finished in the first two at Cheltenham. It certainly produces plenty of winners.
AP
Do I remember right, AP, that you’re a fan of hold-up horses at Aintree?
Tuffers,
Over hurdles, yes, because of the long run on the flat from the fourth last to third last, that gives the hold-up horses time to close up without a jump breaking their rhythm.
However, I believe that hold-up horses were also helped by the fact that so many of the hurdle races were run at a strong pace, because many trainers and jockeys viewed it as a sharp course. That has changed imo, perhaps because of the publicity about hold up horses dominating the results, perhaps because Martin Pipe is no longer sending twenty front runners to the meeting.
Even so, Peddlers Cross was the only hurdle winner last year to be in front before the second last and he was always going to outclass the opposition as we know with hindsight. Most of them have ‘led last’ in their comments, and a couple have ‘led close home’.
In the chases, the fences are so stiff that imo, a clean round of jumping is way more important than any pace angle.
AP
Katchit, Detriot City, Oh Crick, Katarino, Star De Mohaison, Black Jack Ketchum are others since 2006.
There have also been quite a few that finished second at Cheltenham and won at Aintree – Mighty Man, Binocular, Walkon, Exotic Dancer, Strangely Brown, Straw Bear, Voy Por Ustedes (twice), Gwanako, Tidal Bay (over hurdles), Kalahari King, Silver Birch, Burton Port, Khyber Kim.
Makings of a system here – only back horses in non handicaps at Aintree that finished in the first two at Cheltenham. It certainly produces plenty of winners.
AP
Yes it sounds like a good plan in the non-handicaps. I think its the handicap races that are the problem.
Its also worth noting how many big priced winners there are at Aintree, especially in the last few years.
Well the opening day of Aintree is far from a bad card, although the Bowl turn-out’s a little disappointing.
Denman’s due to start a short-priced favourite but does he warrant such a skinny price? The ground at Cheltenham was really fast, the quickest it’s been in a very long time and they went a hell of a gallop. Aintree’s a sharp course and last time ‘The Tank’ was here he was struggling against Madison du Berlais when he took a huge fall. I couldn’t possibly have him at the price. Nacarat has proved time and time again that he doesn’t stay 3 miles, Deep Purple won’t stay, Follow the Plan not good enough.
Punchestowns interests me a lot. Ignore all his runs at Cheltenham, he plain doesn’t like it there. The concern for me is the trip, but I definitely think he’s at least 2nd best here.
I can’t understand why Grands Crus is the same price he was at Cheltenham pretty much. He’s such a progressive horse, wouldn’t surprise me at all if he were able to beat Big Buck’s by a few lengths. He’ll be running on softer ground, although his long season’s a concern. Again, he’s at least 2nd best in this and I think an each-way double with 2 win singles is just the ticket.
Zarkandar should hack up in the Anniversary, although Grandouet should get a lot closer. Henderson reckoned he was a flat-track horse earlier in the year and he travelled extremely well for the best part of the Triumph.
No idea about the Manifesto yet, Medermit’s had 5 1/2 runs this year, just wonder if he won’t be over the top.
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