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According to the Racing Post site another dry day but with further rain forecast it seems safe to assume the ground will be softer than Cheltenham, how much so we will just have to wait and see. Punters are faced with the puzzle of a quicker track but slower ground.
As I said on the other thread I will be quite happy to watch Big Bucks notch another win. I wouldn’t be overly confident of who is going to place. If the ground wasn’t too bad perhaps Won In The Dark could outrun his 100/1 quote.
The juvenile division was something of a nightmare going in to Cheltenham and isn’t any easier now. Despite his price Countrywide Flame appeared to take the Triumph on merit but you have to worry about him being outpaced on a quicker track. Clearly the more rain the more chance he has of doubling up. If he drifted out to 7/1 he could represent some value. Dodging Bullets looks the speed horse but how will he cope with the ground?
I took the 10/1 Hunt Ball earlier in the week on the basis that he looks the one really progressive horse in the race. There are doubts about trip and ground but the same could be said about several of these. Riverside Theatre did really well to win at Cheltenham but that was a very hard race.
No interest in the Foxhunters – I am sure you could consider yourself an expert in this field and still get this badly wrong. I certainly don’t think there are any Grittar’s or Spartan Missile’s amongst this lot.
Pretty much a re-run of the Grand Annual. Expect Kumbeshwar to go close again and perhaps Oiseau De Nuit represents some each-way value on a course where he a run a couple of decent races.
Although the next is a small field it is still very tricky with horses stepping up in trip on ground softer than ideal and others returning from poor runs or stepping up in class. Too much guesswork for me.
I liked the Newbury race Gullinbursti ran in but the 6/1 quote looks very short for a horse who wouldn’t want the ground to get any worse. His price is probably a reflection of the lack of obvious improvers amongst the opposition.
Best of the day – Hunt Ball
I’ll start the day by buying some money on Big Buck’s who surely cant lose.
I’m very hopeful John Quinn’s Countryside Flame can follow up his win in the Triumph. The soft ground is sure to make stamina count nad he acts well on the ground. I’ll most likely back him to win and place on the machine.
I’ve already backed Hunt Ball ew ante post
Next is a very tough race but My Way De Solzan has won well on faster ground than this recently but I would have to think the softer the better for him these days. I’ll have a few quid on him.
I very seldom listen when tipped a horse trained by Alan King but the word is so strong for Kumbeshwar I make him my nap of the day.
Al Feerof should have too many guns for these but his worst run came at Sandown on similar ground and that’s a slight worry. If I am doing well I will back him if not I wont.
Wouldn’t have a bet in the last with stolen money.
G/L all
My fancies on the opening day:
Livius – take a chance that jumping has improved, Im steering clear of the Cheltenham runners in this race rightly or wrongly.
What a Friend in the bowl.
Silk Drum & Free World in the same race. Both have good each way chances.
Cape Tribulation to back up the Cheltenham win in the last.
Good Luck all!
Martin
My fancies on the opening day:
Livius – take a chance that jumping has improved, Im steering clear of the Cheltenham runners in this race rightly or wrongly.
What a Friend in the bowl.
Silk Drum & Free World in the same race. Both have good each way chances.
Cape Tribulation to back up the Cheltenham win in the last.
Good Luck all!
Martin
My Way De Solzen=Classiest horse in the race by a mile.
Pearl Swan is an interesting one.
Hunt Ball and What A Friend look good in the Bowl.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Zippy really likes this meeting so is going to tip you a L15 for day one.
Burton Point
Take 9/2 if you can get it. Won on this track before and certain to stay. Jumps well and is very gutsy and hasn’t had a hard season.
Gwanako
– I remember when he won buff boy Zippy a few quid over these fences in a handicap. Class runner who can be waited with until withering through the field.
Free World
– Lotsa experts (I’m not an expert you see..a sexpert, yes, but not an expert) say this horse was very unlucky in the Grand Annual and was pulling treble when falling.
Pepite Rose
– Very impressive last time and Al Feorf is vulnerable. 3/1 would be a good price.
Over to you guys,
Zip
Interesting that trainer states wants further rain for Gullinbursti – she should know better than me. We shall see – he now looks even worse value at 9/2 than 6/1.
It’s got to be Big Buck’s 2.00 at Aintree for 17 in a row, although as expected, the odds are quite skinny.
The 3.05 at Aintree poses more questions than answers and I can’t really decide between Riverside Theatre and Burton Port, although there are others horses like Hunt Ball, Medermit and What A Friend to consider. There’s no real value for an each way bet with any of them, so Riverside Theatre for the win I think
AWESOME indeed
What a superb start to the Aintree festival, hope the fallers are all OK and returned sound!
That will have boosted Mr Nicholls coffers for the title race with a 1-2-4 and more to come today.
Once again O’Regan gets Cape Tribulation home. One ride one winner. Very brave horse under top weight to back up the Cheltenham win.
Thanks Denis – saved the bacon again!
Martin
John Smith’s Mildmay Novices’ Chase
Whether Cheltenham has left is mark on Finina’s Rainbow or Alberta’s Run remains to be seen.
There are negatives about both.
Alberta’s is said to want good ground and it’s definitely on the soft side of good.
On the Plus side he’s at the age when some horses preference in ground changes and they are actually happier with a bit of cut and the ground isn’t as bad as it is on the National course.
Another factor is he actually won the RSA on softish ground so unless it’s really bad in which case Jonjo would withdraw him I think he’ll run his race.
As a novice I always thought Finian’s Rainbow would win a King George until Nicky Henderson said he wasn’t suited by 2m4f and his best trip was 2 miles. He certainly done well over the trip 2nd in the Arkle and he proved too fast for Sizing Europe.
Enter Sprinter Sacre and all of a sudden they decide after the Queen Mum Finians will step up in trip. Now here he is racing over the distance his trainer reckoned doesn’t suit him.
Casting my mind back to the Neptune he ran in running miles below what was expected backing him is something I am not prepared to do.
I think this is very much an experiment and if he loses badly he will be stepped back to 2 miles.
He’d definitely faster than Alberta’s Run but these chases at Cheltenham can spread horses out like yesterdays washing and stamina is essential.
I reckon Alberta’s Run will outstay Finian’s Rainbow and win this.
1st race If Darlan is going to join Spirit Son and Grandouet as part of the Henderson Champion Hurdle team he’ll have to win tis doing handstands. He’s as tough as old boots when it comes to getting over races and I can’t see anything in this race who would come anywhere near to achieving what he has to date.
Darlan (Nap) was 13/8 earlier he should be 8/13 IMO so I’m hoping he can go along way to making it a profitable day.
2nd race Champion Court has won at Aintree but he’s an easy horse to pick off on a course like this.There’s a good race in Silviniaco Conti 2/1 and I think Friday could be his day.
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Can’t nap 2 on the same day but can still get stuck in when a good un comes along. I’ve doubled Darlan 13/8 with Fingal Bay 2/1 and have 2 singles on. Both favs but both look rock solid.
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