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Gord what chance you give MONTASER in cesarewitch trained by former winner DARLEY SUN this horse is a lighty raced sort who is being targeted at this race.14/1 he is
Gord what chance you give MONTASER in cesarewitch trained by former winner DARLEY SUN this horse is a lighty raced sort who is being targeted at this race.14/1 he is
Interesting bit of foresight as usual Darren,
Montaser
is only a 3yo too and I’m not a great fan of 3yo’s in this particular race,although I did back the Marquessa de Moratallas 3yo trained by Jimmy Fitz some years back at 16/1,smart hurdler too he was.I like the look of
Motivado
for this he actually surprised me in the Ebor as I never expected him to have the pace required for it,he’ll love the more sedate pace in the Cesarewitch and I wouldn’t go past him myself!
The St Leger fast approaches and I haven’t a clue which one of Johnny G’s is going to chase home ‘Camelot’,he has 4 decent horses engaged in the final classic and all 4 would win an ‘average’ Leger but having a Guineas/Derby winner in the line up kind of makes you feel we’re all running for 2nd place.At the prices and looking at the history of the race,I’ve stuck my pin in and come up with
Shantaram
,there’s something slow and maturing I like about this fellow, a bit like a ‘Latour’ he’ll develop with time and he’s been patiently treated up to date!
Shantaram
£100 e/w 10/1 St Leger Ladbrokes
£5900
I made it to one of our Knights around the table the other evening,I’ve missed a few recently but 12 of us managed to get our teeth into next years Cheltenham Gold Cup,we sat till 1am drinking Port and watching visual form via a Laptop on an 8ft screen,I’ve enjoyed these meetings with the knowledgables over the years and between us have hit Cheltenham with some amazing Ante-Post wagers,’our’ horse for last years festival was undoubtedly
Sir des Champs
for the Jewson backed at prices down from 30’s on the machine by some,I was a little late on the bandwagon but settled for a little bit of 16’s and a load of 12/1,a couple of the lads on here certainly helped cement our impression of the horse,they know who they are!Anyway the one thing that came out of our little get together was to continue supporting the 2 Gigginstown horses for the Big one,what will be a cunning move is the fact that
First Lieutenant
who currently trades at a best price of 16/1 will no doubt drift throughout the season as he gets beaten on Soft ground a bit like he did last year,granted Good ground this fellow will go off around the 6/1 mark come the day so I’m happy to continue to take anything bigger,
Sir des Champs
looks the Class act but like
Synchronized
this year,its down to battling qualities in a Gold Cup,Clocks tickin and I’m already excited! This flat season has been a damp squib in more ways than one! (Frankel apart)!!
First Lieutenant
£100 e/w 16/1 William Hill Gold Cup.
£6100
Interesting Gord. FL is too ground dependent to be getting stuck in antepost this early for my liking.
Not convinced he’ll improve past Bobs Worth either who had his measure this year and will be going for a hat-trick of festival wins on a course he clearly loves.
Excellent news TAPK, those Knights certainly know their onions
For me this is the one time that I could see the Giggs horses both running in the same event! Will be a great race.
There are some nice trebles and accas to be had at the moment for the past winners,
Been doing a bit of Gold Cup study myself today Gord. Gigginstown have an embarrassment of riches in the 3 mile chase division, so I’ll start with their horses.
I think
Quito De La Roque
would have won this year’s Gold Cup but I doubt he’ll make the first three next year. I was disappointed with Colm Murphy’s handling of the horse last season and with what looks a cracking bunch of novices from last year around, and injury problems, it’s hard to see him winning more Grade 1’s. Not an ante-post proposition imo.
Last Instalment
did me a few favours last year and is a thoroughly likable horse. He was brilliant when dispatching with First Lieutenant in Leopardstown on ground that was thought to be too quick for him. However, he was unsound post race and I doubt they’ll run him again on anything faster than good – soft. I’m not sure if he’ll be back for the Lexus but it’ll take a good one to beat him in the Hennessy. Not really an ante post proposition at this stage but definitely one to keep on the right side of with cut in the ground.
Sir Des Champs
is my favourite horse in training. I’ve made no secret of how highly I’ve rated him since his Martin Pipe win, where he overcame what was a poor ride to win from what looked an impossible position. He showed a serious turn of foot that day which is a weapon that many of his rivals fail to possess. His relaxed style of racing is beautiful to watch, conserving energy at every jump and settling perfectly. He’s not a Sprinter Sacre type that the jockey merely has to let out the rein and he moves through the gears, but as soon as he get’s a squeeze he quickens impressively. I get the impression that we haven’t seen nothin’ yet as they say, and there’s plenty more in the tank if and when it’s needed. The trip is a slight doubt but he relaxes so well that I don’t think it’ll be a problem.
I was confident
First Lieutenant
would reverse form with Last Instalment at Leopardstown if they met in the RSA, such is the importance of the ground to the horse. It’s obvious he’s the apple of Davy Russell’s eye and his jumping improved no end on good ground. He was too keen in the RSA and he would have been closer had he settled better but it’s debatable whether he would have beaten Bobs Worth at any rate as Barry Gerathy always looked comfortable on that horse. I’ve had First Lieutenant in my notebook for the
Ryanair
for a while now. He’s got plenty of pace and it’s the trip over which he won the Neptune. Gigginstown like a runner in the Ryanair and I can’t see them with three or four in the Gold Cup and no runner in their own race. I can’t see Sir Des Champs going anywhere but the Gold Cup and the others don’t have the speed for the shorter trip thus leaving this fella. Mouse Morris will have the Gold Cup in mind but Giggy and Davy will want to run him in the shorter race imo.
This leads me on to
Bobs Worth
. He’s a similar operator to First Lieutenant, in that he produces his best around Prestbury Park, but he’s got less speed and more stamina. He looks an ideal Gold Cup type, with accurate jumping and he looks sure to stay. I like the way Henderson brought him along slowly last year, using the Feltham and Reynoldstown as stepping stones to an impressive win in the RSA. You can be sure he’ll have a similar campaign this season, and the fact that he’ll probably get beat along the way means he’ll probably be as big a price as he is now at some point much closer to Cheltenham. He’s a serious player.
Grands Crus
is not a Gold Cup horse imo. I’ve backed him for the King George, he was a completely different animal in the Feltham than in the RSA. His Feltham performance was truly sensational, using his jumping and cruising speed to pulverise the opposition. But as I said, I don’t think he’ll be seen at his best at 3m 2f around Cheltenham.
Flemenstar
is another horse with big hopes for the coming season. He was untouchable in the Powers Gold Cup and I think it’s likely he’ll get the distance, but it is a doubt nonetheless. I’d aim him at the John Durkan if he were mine, then his options are open. He could go to the Lexus for a potentially cracking clash with many of the above, or he could go to England.
I’ve never been
Long Run
‘s biggest fan but at the same time I thought he’d have enough ability to win last season’s Gold Cup. He disappointed me there and in what looks like a better season for 3 mile chasers it’s hard to see him regaining his crown.
Excellent contribution as usual Tommy,you are very clued up on the Irish scene and your posts regarding
Sir des Champs
certainly bolstered my own confidence in the fact he had to run in the Jewson last season as we both know the nonsense that was printed in the media regarding his target. I still look back at the week that was with a huge sigh of relief!
Now then Tommy i’m afraid we differ hugely on respective targets for our 2 horses this year though,I cant believe you thinkFirst Lieutenant
will go the Ryanair route,yes I know he beat the Champion hurdle winner in the Neptune but this fellow has stamina in abundance so much so that when the entries for the NH Chase over 4m were opened he was along with
Four Commanders
the only 2 Gigginstown declared.I honestly believe that
Sir des Champs
is tailor made for the owners own race and can see the will he wont he scenario raise its ugly head again with him,particularly as he’s in a stable that wouldn’t tell you the time of day if you were stood outside waiting for a bus! I’ve gone right off
Quito de la Roque
as a Gold cup horse,more an Irish national sort methinks now!
Weapons Amnesty
was a certainty for a Gold cup and would have beaten ‘Long Run’ again in the 2011 renewal had he been fit,his days have gone now sadly! Exciting times make up for what has been a dismal Flat season,not only for TAPK but Dandy Nicholls,Sir Michael Stoute,Paul Hanagan and Sheikh Hamden,Silvestre and Godolphin and Frankie Dettori himself,its been poor and its not over yet!
Interesting Gord. FL is too ground dependent to be getting stuck in antepost this early for my liking.
Not convinced he’ll improve past Bobs Worth either who had his measure this year and will be going for a hat-trick of festival wins on a course he clearly loves.
Pants, watch
First Lieutenants
2 Cheltenham runs,his Neptune victory over ‘Rock on Ruby’ shows his battling qualities then watch how he loses the RSA early on by pulling his head off,he jumped for fun and was beaten by a bloody good horse in ‘Bobs Worth’ who is certainly still a danger for this years Gold cup,I beleive a proper gallop will suit my horse the better this season and he’s still got a bit of strengthening up to do,he certainly has more scope than Bob
and Mouse will play him like an out of tune fiddle for most of the year but come March he’ll be tuned like a ‘Stradivarius’! Get on mate 16/1 is still too big!
Gigginstown got their way over Willie Mullins with Sir Des Champs last season Gord and I don’t think there’s any way Willie will let that happen again. He wanted to go to the RSA last season and there’s now way he’ll let him run in the Ryanair unless weaknesses in his stamina appear (unlikely).
Bobs Worth won the championship 3 mile novice chase event last season and I’d say Davy Russell is looking forward to another crack at him, but not with First Lieutenant. In the immediate aftermath, perhaps feeling unlucky, I thought that using up energy early on cost him the race, but looking at it now I’m not so sure. Barry Gerathy looked quite confident on Bobs Worth when Davy was going for the whip. There’s obviously very little between them and on another day First Lieutenant may well beat Bobs Worth, but he’d be odds against to do so.
For this reason I think the Gigginstown team (not Mouse Morris obviously) will want to run him in the Ryanair. Of course a lot will depend upon how the season pans out for both horses. First Lieutenant will probably run, and get beaten, in the Lexus. I’d say there’s a big chance 20/1 or 25/1 will be available during the season, as it was last year, and I’d probably back him at that price. After all, he didn’t exactly let us down last year!
He’s a different animal on good ground.I’m not sure what the plans are for Sir Des Champs in the opening half of the season. He’ll hardly run in the Lexus if First Lieutenant, Last Instalment and possibly Quito De La Roque are engaged. Doesn that mean he’ll travel for the King George? I’d love to see it!
I find it hard to see either horse out of the first 4 in the Gold Cup if that’s where they run.
Gigginstown got their way over Willie Mullins with Sir Des Champs last season Gord and I don’t think there’s any way Willie will let that happen again. He wanted to go to the RSA last season and there’s now way he’ll let him run in the Ryanair unless weaknesses in his stamina appear (unlikely).
Bobs Worth won the championship 3 mile novice chase event last season and I’d say Davy Russell is looking forward to another crack at him, but not with First Lieutenant. In the immediate aftermath, perhaps feeling unlucky, I thought that using up energy early on cost him the race, but looking at it now I’m not so sure. Barry Gerathy looked quite confident on Bobs Worth when Davy was going for the whip. There’s obviously very little between them and on another day First Lieutenant may well beat Bobs Worth, but he’d be odds against to do so.
For this reason I think the Gigginstown team (not Mouse Morris obviously) will want to run him in the Ryanair. Of course a lot will depend upon how the season pans out for both horses. First Lieutenant will probably run, and get beaten, in the Lexus. I’d say there’s a big chance 20/1 or 25/1 will be available during the season, as it was last year, and I’d probably back him at that price. After all, he didn’t exactly let us down last year!
He’s a different animal on good ground.I’m not sure what the plans are for Sir Des Champs in the opening half of the season. He’ll hardly run in the Lexus if First Lieutenant, Last Instalment and possibly Quito De La Roque are engaged. Doesn that mean he’ll travel for the King George? I’d love to see it!
I find it hard to see either horse out of the first 4 in the Gold Cup if that’s where they run.
Exciting times already Tommy,yes I too would love to see
Sir des Champs
contest the King George………What am I saying? Of course I dont want him running at Kempton as I’m all over
Grand Cru’s
at 8/1 for that! So long as Mouse Morris trains
First Lieutenant
he runs in the Gold cup,its written in Stone that mate (War of Attrition) saw to that.No being realistic our 2 go for Gold and
Last Instalment
goes the Ryanair route,he too has a mixture of speed and stamina but not the pre-requisite ‘Cheltenham form’ to go for Gold so there we are mate sorted!
2013 Gold Cup Result;-
1st,
First Lieutenant
6/1
2nd,Sir des Champs
6/4 fav
3rd,Long Run
9/2
4thBobs Worth
6/1
Seems we have a pretty similar view of the Gold Cup Gord!
We think the same horses will be in the shake up but with different results.
Flemenstar
is the real unknown quantity, do you think he’ll stay the trip? I’ve already taken 14/1 about him because he could be anything but then again he’ll have to be special to beat Sir Des Champs
I see William Hill have cut their 10/1 about Sizing Europe already, that didn’t last long!
The other race I’ve been looking at today is the RSA. I’ve hit the crossbar the past two years now with
Jessies Dream
going agonisingly close at 16/1 and
First Lieutenant
at 20/1 this year. Have you any strong opinion on the race?
Exciting times indeed
I dont see
Flemenstar
as a Gold Cup horse Tommy,christ I remember his grand sire ‘Beau Sher’ winning a Mile handicap for Ben Hanbury,he’s another Ryanair type to me.
I’ve backed next years RSA winner at 66/1,he’s calledBatonnier
and ticks all the boxes!
CORBALLY GHOST my novice chaser to follow a real chasing type he is
Gord also any thoughts on BIOGRAPHER see he is in cesarewitch i thought ran well other day to be 2nd only time i bet on he comes 2nd he does.Windsor
Lingfield and at weekend.Also gord any thoughts on TELESCOPE a unraced highclere horse trained by SMS in betting for derby even though not made debut yet.
Gord, do you think it’s best to take a price about Cirrus Des Aigles/Nathaniel now for the Champion before they announce Frankel’ going for the Arc?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Gord, do you think it’s best to take a price about Cirrus Des Aigles/Nathaniel now for the Champion before they announce Frankel’ going for the Arc?
I have finally come to the conclusion after just over 2 years that wherever
Frankel
runs,he wins and thats including the Arc Nath so I would have to say that 8/1 about
Nathaniel
for the Champion stakes is a cracking bet,so long as you do him e/w as you will still make a 50% profit on your stake should ‘Frankel’ run,obviously if he doesn’t run at Newmarket then ‘Nathaniel’ goes off the 7/4fav so 8/1 looks massive then! Good thinking Soldier!
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