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Newton
Abbott
2.15
Film D’Action
Win
Ideal vert
Each way
Colin bowe’s hand is all over this one.
This horse has been to Gordon Elliot and has plenty of big field experience. Has then gone on to win a point in April by some way before going bad again when long odds on. No show on debut but jockey has choice of two but chooses this one. Did show in front for a long way before tailed off on yard debut.
JP Macmanus has a runner here and he is my win bet given that he has shown up well on last run following wind surgery
Name to follow.Ayr 3.10
Chinese spirit
Win
End zone
Each way
Draw data strongly points to stall 6 and end zone was knocking loudly last time.A big day for me today.( hopefully)
I’m I nearing the anniversary of the day I started my first full time job. But more pertinent to the here and now I hope to land winner number forty for the month. I’m in the nervous thirties now after just two yesterday and while 35 is a good place to be, the final leg of an objective is always the hardest one.
I had a 36th at the weekend but somehow managed to lock myself out of the forum I’ve posted the other 35 on and actually posted that winner here. I was on which is the main thing. So, if I reach 39 today, just like Nikola Tesla, I can have two birthdays 🎂.
That name will come up frequently in my postings as his principles and theories around physics have a synergy and symmetry with my own assertions in events and conditions that do exist in a racing environment.
About a year ago I received some Stella advice. I say Stella as that’s the ‘name’ of the kind neighbour who gave it to me. She’s an artist blest with patience and a disposition to suffer fools gladly and with the skill to study a patient thoughtfully before making any assessment and giving a reply that both satisfies and placates in equal measure and paints a canvass an oil painting and a portrait which even the subject will like. So her tactful reply whilst lost on me initially for over a year took just one day to bear solid fruit in the form of a fifty to one winner.
I was waxing lyrical again about the marvels of free energy to this poor soul and how it could change the world eventually. I told her all about the physics and how this horse A did this and that because of B not being there and traverse law and Tesla and once I’d taken a breath she took one herself and said “ write it down Sam!! Write it down!! Get a book or something. You could be right.
The very next day at cartmel a horse was clear on the home turn of what is a very idiosyncratic track when disaster struck enroute to a maiden victory for horse and jockey. The saddle weight fell off and Write it Down the runner up was awarded the race. I’m not of course superstitious or fatetalistic but it told me something and reading the race card it was a qualifier of free energy. Even armed with that knowledge the stellar advice continued to be ignored and ignored, until today I’m writing it down in a little blue book. A thousand thoughts and recall has been what I’ve relied on, no notebook has been set up.( until today) The book won’t instantly make a difference but it will in time and the point is you have to start somewhere and write it down Sam is singularly the best piece of advice I’ve had in the last year over racing. “Here is four grand. Now go away and do your research and come back to me when you’ve achieved something “ is the next best but that happens next week.
I tend to dwell on where I’ve gone wrong rather than right and @richard-westwood put a winner in my lap yesterday and somehow I spurned that excellent piece of advice. Playing whodunnit instead and the butcher and the baker got my vote as the usual suspects, forgetting that keyser soce lies always in plain sight and cluedo duly bolted up. Concentrating on what’s gone right in the last ten days is what will get me over that invisible line today. For me a five timer has always been five singles and all at the post. I’ll stick to that formula today, but if the chance does arise, then a double would be nice.
I’ve had a look at the opener in Ireland 🇮🇪 a juvenile hurdle. We used to have an expert assessor on the internet Batchelors Hall and I think he’s moved on to pastures greener either in his life ventures or in racing as he had a deep wealth of academic knowledge which he crammed into literary masterpieces of Race assessments dedicated to the breeding pedigree of the assembled field of juvenile hurdles. These write up put anything I’ve read anywhere on the subject in the shade such were the depth of his articles. He was locked away in twitter last I saw of him.He’d always slip in some historic reference to Homer or whatever which only someone with classic knowledge found in alumni could grasp. It was like watching an episode of Morse where the pathologist would come down from the mountains and read from his literary pillars of stone when addressing the plods and only morse could follow him. As a two year day release at my local college was my university education I couldn’t always get the references but I got the gist in the main.
Sadly, twitter or twatter as I call it is a closed shop thanks to the less than useful megalomaniac Musk’s latest hiJack of something with a useful purpose. Musk’s other faux pax was the theft of the name of our greatest scientist to use as a tin car apology for something which destroys rather than enhances the environment.Bachelor’s Hall would not touch the Irish arm of juvenile hurdling due to the Irish’s clear indifference to the drugs fuelled intoxication of it’s leading and minor trainers. This meant unless one of Mullin’s own crossed the Irish Sea to race on our patch his work would be incomplete come Cheltenham.
I’ve no indifference to Ireland’s scourge and I mention it frequently in my epistles ( by the way I can’t hold a candle to Batchelors hall but I’ve learned from the master and as I’m a gambler I just add cash to my opinions again a stellar opposite to the master)So to the race and Gordon Elliott’s runner goes off here bottom weight effectively as only two fillies go under her penalty. But on strict form lines through the horse she beat (Nurburgring) in the stewards last time, Wodhoohhas huge superiority over most of this field.
The fact as a filly she gets weight from all the principles including Joseph O’Briens runner even with the penalty, she ought to take the world of beating at the weights alone. Add to the element of improvement as Elliott horses invariably come on in leaps and bounds. This one has started straight out of the traps as a stable switcher from Sir Michael Stoute and the Bajan Bandit with the gentle burrs and a brougue laced with that Caribbean lilt and a bit of Suffolk sent over the french horse whose pedigree always meant a future over sticks. Mere speculation of course but perhaps he has retained an interest which will see the horse back at Newmarket one day.
All horses in Irish racing are tarnished by association to the drugs blight and I can understand Batchelors Hall’s indifference to the Irish arm of juvenile hurdling. But to ignore the sport is to cut off your nose to spite your face. It’s akin to ignoring athletics because of the blight of doping. I was captivated by Coe and Ovett in the eighties and later by lewis and Co in the sprints but cast your eye over over Ben Johnson’s race and few come out of that with clear reputations. Back to the race and wodooh looks nailed on to me.Back to the anniversary and to celebrate it I’m landing my three tricasts this week and bringing up the forty winners later today. If I manage that then I will crammed them into ten days rather than the thirty one which was my intended target. Once I’ve crosssed that boundary and the monkey 🙊 🙈 🙉 is off my back. I’ll be going quiet ( quieter) and concentrating on becoming a disciplined and profitable gambler. My main aim will be after today to actually earn from this beautiful game that some of us love to play in.
Hold your bets off though because this field will lose a few prior to a new market being formed and then you’ll avoid being hit with a massive rule four. This is one of the reasons I wait until the field is settled and set.
Wodhooh
win
punchestown 1350
By the way I’m throwing the kitchen sink at todays onslaught on bookiedom and one of you will be a grand better off at close of play. Clue. It won’t be a bookie. Everything I’ve listed will be used to land these five winners with the last word being ALEXANDER.1350 punchestown
WODHOOH
Win @ 6/5
As anticipated 🐜 one of the market leaders has pulled out and hefty deductions avoided. Joseph O’Brien’s Cossack Chach a non runner traverse law even at this lowly level of weights say advantage goes to first available horse at the bottom of the weights with the ability to act on it. That brings into play the most experienced horse pigeon house there is joint ownership here involving Trainer Jessica Harrington. I’m still keen however on Woodhoh being the lowest weighted horse of four contenders most able to take advantage of the free energy available and at 6:5 to frank the form of his last time out win. Imagine the huge deduction and money already lost if you’d backed him earlier?
leicester1632
the draw data throws up two runners here.
last year’s winning stall 9
presents dark horse
kitsune power
Each way
with an opportunity given he’s slipped to a low mark compared to his hat 🎩 trick run last summer badly out of form since but has had plenty of runs the change in ground here may suit Rail de silva is a great job jockey and although he doesn’t win many he can do a great specific job and is a one trick jockey.
intricacy in stall 11 however is the true draw data horse given his current form too and an assessment puts him in within one stall of the actual figure of ten occupied by hat trick seeking forceful speed ridden for AMO by our own answer to Billy Lee, Billy loughnane. I’m watching this lads progress and hoping He doesn’t come off worse in this marriage set way below the clouds ⛅️ and that he stays closer to racings roots rather than these fly by nights, lest they ruin him.
Intricacy
win
Was close up behind Greek order the Cambridgeshire runner up and the next horse won next time out.
in that group rated handicap, Greek Order lost out on the physics to a horse running the rail with a huge advantage as top weight of traverse law and free energy an unbeatable combination. So intricacy’s form reads very strongly here.Leicester 1337
draw data
Third highest weighted highest drawn horse
is
HORSE WHISPERER
Win
debued in vaunted company in a class two no chance and finished out the back winner has gone on to be rated 98
sam story second and third race but winners home to be 79
set alight on handicap debut to win and a good second latest and on bare form going to be a handful here.
Lowest drawn lowest weighted Is
ENSIGN WILSON ⚽️
Mark Usher introduced monks mead in high summer in summer circumstances having shown nothing headgear and draw and weights and jockey change suggests better to come off these terms in handicap debut.the draw data horse is
BATTLEOFBALTIMORE
Each way
a Newmarket raider by exceptional South Africa ex jockey Dylan Cunha who recorded a royal ascot Victory in little more than first season.
I’ve reached target with Antrim coast.
Punchestown4:10
IRISH ENVOY
WIN
SHEEPHSVEN FLYER
WIN
REBEL WALTZ
EACH WAY
Leicester lucky last
Leicester 5:40
TUSCAN
Win
David O’ Merara
won off 87 in a class three stakes last year.
and the draw data horse
Direct Hit
win
Tim Easterby runner these horses are trained to win at will by this trainer at his time of choosing.
THE WAY TO THE STARS
Each way
Hit the xbar in Leicester’s lucky last.
All in all, not to bad a run of results in Ireland.Hopefully a winner in one of the final two contests at Southwell at 2000 and 2030 hours…..
I wonder if anyone made a grand today?
Southwell 2000
profitable Edge
win
on the balance of probabilities they gave this one a name so they could keep a straight face when walking away with the readies. He drops into a class six again having won easily at ripon. Been away running in class three and four. Way below best marks in Ireland. If not well , won’t win.
Southwell 2030
Blue Hawaii
each way
Won when last seen in the flat has a full house in national hunt and flat and fit enough from the jumps to get involved here.
Black smoke
lednekov
both lightly raced and very well treated
Lednekov 113 record here
both win
Well I got the four requisite winners yesterday in between the four that I posted on these pages I also landed a fifth winner on the punchestown card in Gavin Cromwell’s Antrim Coast to go with Wodhooh, Irish Envoy , Zanihiya, and Park of Kings.
I’m hoping today for some kind of feedback which has been absent for some time.
I’ve tried before and only seem to elicit any on the meydan thread.
Back to punchestown after winning all of the first five races yesterday.The first race and I can’t have the new favourite who in two meetings at a higher level got nowhere near the eagerly awaited non runner a dream to share at bumper level.
Take 4/7 about the new favourite if you like but this is nothing like yesterday’s race the only straw to clutch at is the drop in class 💧 but the impending deluge will wash that straw right away.
Qatar spirit
IDOLThe second point is that Noah and Nellie were due to sailing by to pick up any volunteers to get onboard the skylark due to the tonne of wet stuff being laid by paddy the cloud.
Qatar spirit
who has been around since the first flood looks a viable alternative. An all weather winner in France about 2018, this horse will sluice through any mud and would be the last up the ramp. Idol is ex Willie Mullins and these ones always take a while to bed in but won a bumper at Roscommon in the fashion of a Mullins prepared world beater (I’d need to check if he was anchored by Patrick or Paul or given an easy time with a claimer ), was unplaced behind a stablemate so that looks like a gentle intro after a break and I’d expect much more on hurdle debut for Sam curling.
Qatar spirit
each way
IDOL
win
Idol ran a dream race and although eventually out with the washing, is one for the blue book.
I was unfair to facile mode and it was indeed just like yesterday’s race.
punchestown 4:10
the non runner splits the field and either gives the bottom two an impossible task or brings one of them right into it.
the ratings suggest they have no chance the weights and the physics says different
Hurricane Georgie
win
Panda Boy
win
Nottingham 4:22
Harswell dukeEach way
Has to be considered in these terms.
I’m not watching racing right now but rain belts bare forecast all over the place and if the ground goes heavy this class dropper is in a very good place to take advantage. Johnny peatey claims three and the last run for this decent horse was in much better company on heavy going .Kempton 1900
HAMNET
each way
french newcomers very rarely prove to be exceptional and this cheap purchase is nothing out of the ordinary. But entry point is interesting given a handicap debut on yard debut.
SHEEROOD
PORT ERIN
BOTH WIN
One on potential the other form and the jockey booking.
Adding a third win horse
Nasim
win
Makes debut for new yard and drops down to winning mark from Micheal Appleby part of a group of reciprocal trainers who set up horses to win soon after leaving yard. This one may well be “oven ready “
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