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I agree regarding fairlyand steve as i said above, she looked to me like she needed the run, shes better than her rating suggest anyway (105) but i disagree regarding the macken bullets abillity to improve from run to run after 4 starts at her age, some horses, especially from “smaller yards” take more runs than most to show how good they are. Fairyland may only have ran 2lbs below her or at the time, shes clearly capable of more, money before the off suggests she was closer to her actual form than first thought, as with AH in the race, the money wouldnt have came if she wasnt near her best.
Ham, to our knowledge if Fairyland wasn’t at her best, she’s likely not even run to Ascot form? Since i think that, that would mean it’s below the standard for the race in recent times.
Interestingly unless it’s in error the RPR given to Fairyland for this race is 105….so they suggest she’s improved today…which to my mind is absurd.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!If fairyland hadnt had time off jack, shed likely already be 110+ with how shes shaped, the money late today suggests they believe she was forward enough to do herself justice, she may have well ran 105 again, which in theory isnt so absurd as she should have by this stage improved again, s for that reason maintaining 105 is entirely possible IMO
wouldnt be unusual for AOB to have one running there rating without a prep after a break/virus.
Difficult to tell for certain of course,she may have been 1 or 2 lbs below 105 which would mean TMB has ran to about 101/102, which doesnt look out of the question having already achieved 97 after just 4 starts at her age…
why would she have won on form ginge?, your basically ruling out any improvement from TMB because of how close she got to fairyland, absolutely does not work how your suggesting that, especially over 6f trips with 2yos lol if TMB was trained by gosden you would simply say she improved….
I said the form “suggests” Angel’s Hidaway would’ve won, ham; not “ruling out” anything.
It’s all about probabilities for me. Just that The Mackem Bullet was beaten 2 3/4 lengths by Angel’s Hidaway last time and only a short head by Fairyland today. So “form” suggests had Angel’s Hidaway would’ve won had she been at her best. Of course, if TMB has improved the equivalent of 2 3/4 lengths in lbs then AH might not have won today. Everyone has to make their own decision as to how likely that is. imo TMB has probably improved, but (equally) probably not as much as 2 3/4 lengths… Especially as beforehand (if Little Him was like she was at Newbury) then The Mackem Bullet was the only one rated within around 5 lengths of Fairyland).One reason I do not believe TMB did not improve much is the other placings/how far the others were beaten. If this is to be be rated a good renewal of the Lowther then to achieve their positions/distances beaten, Queen Jo Jo, Firebright and Orange Blossom would all need to have improved imo around 21 to 28 lbs. That’s possible – but imo for all three to do so is unlikely.
Personally, I don’t believe Fairyland has run to the same rating (standard) as she did at Ascot; not that she’s much behind it.
Value Is EverythingThe Racing Post ratings need us to believe that Queen Jo Jo has improved 20 lbs today.
Her first two runs were at Beverley, running to 71 the first time and then 79 the second time. No evidence whatsoever that she could improve to 99 today.
The fourth home Firelight has gone up 19 lbs according to today’s ratings.
66/1 shot Orange Blossom has gone up 20 lbs on today’s ratings.
One raise of that proportion you might explain away but THREE in the same race is one hell of a coincidence.
I can’t believe that was a PB from Fairyland there and good luck to Queen Jo Jo if she gets pointed to a Nursery off her new mark.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Delighted with that
Thought she was beat with 20 yards to go. Game as you like she’s fought back.
As much as i think fairlyand wasnt at her best why is the assumption its a poor form race?
Ham, even if we accept that Fairyland ran to her Albany form of 103, that would be the lowest figure of the last 10 runnings of The Lowther.
Last year, the inconsistent Threading recorded 110, while Queen Kindly ranked 112 in her year. Tiggy Wiggy was the best in recent times with 116.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That doesnt mean its a poor form race atall, means compared to previous years they ran a lower figure, but it doesnt mean they have less scope for improvement goingforward, as fairyland wont be racing tiggy wiggy anytime soon, its sort of irrelevant comparing it year to year. Wouldnt be surprised if fairyland went on to win a group 1, does that mean the form of the race is poor because he figure was the lowest in the last decade? No it doesnt
Form is how the race shapes going forward not necassarily on the day, cross counter a good recent example of this…
IMO of course im not ruling anything out, not saying anyone is incorrect.
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