October 13, 2020 at 10:36 #1505881
1 50 Hereford
£5 Win – JAYCOL STAR 66/1
£2.50 Darlac to beat Jaycol Star
£2.50 Monbeg Theatre to beat Jaycol Star
Both Darlac and Monbeg Theatre are well ahead on OR and with a clear round should both comfortably beat Jaycol Star.
Darlac cannot be trusted to complete the course however. He has fell in 2 of his last 3 starts and 3 times in his last 6 races. He is 0/7 in chases.
Monbeg Theatre is 0/5 in chases and will be 12yo in a few months. He has failed to complete in 3 of his 5 chases and is probably in decline.
Neither of these horses can be trusted to complete the course today. Even if 1 of the 2 fails to complete you will land one of the forecasts at worst or will be on a 66/1 winner at best( assuming Jaycol Star completes).
Jaycol Star has 12lb to find with the odds on favourite but he is only 5 and so still open to improvement. He makes his chase debut and could easily improve for the switch to fences so it’s not impossible that he could improve past him even if Darlac does complete the course.
Katy Prices horses are running very well with 5 of her 6 runners finishing either 2nd or 3rd in the last 2 weeks (the only runner not to finish in the top 3 was a 100/1 shot). She has a 25% strike rate with her chasers at Hereford (1 from 4).she has just a 3% strike rate with her hurdlers over the last 5 years but a very respectable 15% strike rate with her chasers so plenty of reason to think this could improve massively for the switch to chasing.
Jaycols Star is by Mediciean who’s favourite surface is gd/firm which is what the ground is today at Hereford offering further hope of a major shock.
This just looks a 66/1 shot well worth taking a gamble on to me.October 13, 2020 at 10:39 #1505882
Just checked after spending the last 15 minutes writing the above post and price has collapsed into as low as 22/1. Bet365 are still offering 50/1 though if quick, it won’t last much longer.October 13, 2020 at 11:36 #1505887
Into as low as 14/1 with many firms now. I don’t think my £5 bet caused that.
Gutted I didn’t take Skybets early price of 80/1 this morning and instead chose to wait til 9am for BOG at which time they cut it to 50/1. Still happy with 66/1 on a horse that is generally now 14/1 and may yet shorten further.
We don’t follow the gambles. We start them!!!October 13, 2020 at 12:02 #1505890sporting samParticipant
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That is an excellent pick Cap’n.
Hope it works, you are in a great position on at that price.October 13, 2020 at 13:13 #1505899
Cheers Sam just hope he can jump fences now. It’s not impossible that none of the 3 will complete the course. Maybe they all will and mine will come last but was definitely worth the risk at 66/1 I think.October 13, 2020 at 13:40 #1505901
Just realised Jaycols Stars true rating is 85 not 116. He is running from 31lb out of the handicap.
So if the others complete they should be in a different parish but the fact that both are far from guaranteed to complete still makes it a good bet.October 13, 2020 at 13:44 #1505902
Backed the winning distance to be over 10 lengths at 13/8 as well.
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