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66/1 winner? Or nice forecast for back up.

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  • #1505881
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 196

    1 50 Hereford

    £5 Win – JAYCOL STAR 66/1

    Straight forecast:

    £2.50 Darlac to beat Jaycol Star
    £2.50 Monbeg Theatre to beat Jaycol Star

    Both Darlac and Monbeg Theatre are well ahead on OR and with a clear round should both comfortably beat Jaycol Star.

    Darlac cannot be trusted to complete the course however. He has fell in 2 of his last 3 starts and 3 times in his last 6 races. He is 0/7 in chases.

    Monbeg Theatre is 0/5 in chases and will be 12yo in a few months. He has failed to complete in 3 of his 5 chases and is probably in decline.

    Neither of these horses can be trusted to complete the course today. Even if 1 of the 2 fails to complete you will land one of the forecasts at worst or will be on a 66/1 winner at best( assuming Jaycol Star completes).

    Jaycol Star has 12lb to find with the odds on favourite but he is only 5 and so still open to improvement. He makes his chase debut and could easily improve for the switch to fences so it’s not impossible that he could improve past him even if Darlac does complete the course.
    Katy Prices horses are running very well with 5 of her 6 runners finishing either 2nd or 3rd in the last 2 weeks (the only runner not to finish in the top 3 was a 100/1 shot). She has a 25% strike rate with her chasers at Hereford (1 from 4).she has just a 3% strike rate with her hurdlers over the last 5 years but a very respectable 15% strike rate with her chasers so plenty of reason to think this could improve massively for the switch to chasing.
    Jaycols Star is by Mediciean who’s favourite surface is gd/firm which is what the ground is today at Hereford offering further hope of a major shock.

    This just looks a 66/1 shot well worth taking a gamble on to me.

    #1505882
    Captain Robbo
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    • Total Posts 196

    Just checked after spending the last 15 minutes writing the above post and price has collapsed into as low as 22/1. Bet365 are still offering 50/1 though if quick, it won’t last much longer.

    #1505887
    Captain Robbo
    Participant
    • Total Posts 196

    Into as low as 14/1 with many firms now. I don’t think my £5 bet caused that.

    Gutted I didn’t take Skybets early price of 80/1 this morning and instead chose to wait til 9am for BOG at which time they cut it to 50/1. Still happy with 66/1 on a horse that is generally now 14/1 and may yet shorten further.

    We don’t follow the gambles. We start them!!!

    #1505890
    sporting sam
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    • Total Posts 2766

    That is an excellent pick Cap’n.
    Hope it works, you are in a great position on at that price.

    #1505899
    Captain Robbo
    Participant
    • Total Posts 196

    Cheers Sam just hope he can jump fences now. It’s not impossible that none of the 3 will complete the course. Maybe they all will and mine will come last but was definitely worth the risk at 66/1 I think.

    #1505901
    Captain Robbo
    Participant
    • Total Posts 196

    Just realised Jaycols Stars true rating is 85 not 116. He is running from 31lb out of the handicap.

    So if the others complete they should be in a different parish but the fact that both are far from guaranteed to complete still makes it a good bet.

    #1505902
    Captain Robbo
    Participant
    • Total Posts 196

    Backed the winning distance to be over 10 lengths at 13/8 as well.

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