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Value?
6/4 now is a joke Joe,there’s a chance he’ll run nothing for one reason or another and if the rest of the field do make it,’Valseur lido, ‘Black Hercules’, ‘Djakadam’, ‘Coneygree’ etc neither Thistlecrack or Cue Card will go off less than that price on the day…Of course the King of foresight has 10/1 and 12/1 respectively and my now annual 25/1 about ‘Cue Card’ winning the Million…A bet I hope you too have?
Depends if Native River turns up or not, without the Hennessey winner it’s 7/4 either CC or This’ wins.
Also depends if Cue Card’s age is catching up with him by March and if Thistlecrack keeps jumping…
Depends if Don Cossack gets there in fine shape, if the Irish horse were to run near his best before March could easily go off favourite. But there’s a fair chance he won’t run again. Coneygree has also been fragile. Douvan won’t run…Could be left with Mullins and ex-Mullins Vs Tizzard.
So if I were laying the bet at this stage, certainly wouldn’t want to offer more than 6/4.
Value Is EverythingWouldn’t take 6/4 either.
Actually, changed my mind. Considering at the moment all three would need to get there and be in good form – for the bet to be a good one – 6/4 is poor.
Value Is EverythingWouldn’t take 6/4 either.
Actually, changed my mind. Considering at the moment all three would need to get there and be in good form – for the bet to be a good one – 6/4 is poor.
That sums you up Ginge…A 50/50 wager and you back and lay both
Ginger sits on more fences than Humpty Dumpty
His g/f told me he’s terrible
on taking sandwich to the races
g/f – cheese or ham…?
ginge – yes, please
g/f – ok, brown or white….?
ginge – one of eachCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Douvan won’t run…
What’s your take on where Douvan runs, ginge….?
I’d have said not GC but now Vautour is no longer with us I’m not as confident. Djackadam sets a good standard but has to get there etcCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Wouldn’t take 6/4 either.
Actually, changed my mind. Considering at the moment all three would need to get there and be in good form – for the bet to be a good one – 6/4 is poor.
That sums you up Ginge…A 50/50 wager and you back and lay both
…And that sums you up too… saying I’ve said something when I haven’t.
Take another look Gordy Boy.Where did I say I’d back it @ 6/4? :lol:
Value Is EverythingDouvan won’t run…
What’s your take on where Douvan runs, ginge….?
I’d have said not GC but now Vautour is no longer with us I’m not as confident. Djackadam sets a good standard but has to get there etcDouvan undoubtedly runs in the Qeen Mum, Nathan.
Ryanair may now be a Grade 1, but doesn’t have the same prestige.Value Is EverythingWouldn’t take 6/4 either.
Actually, changed my mind. Considering at the moment all three would need to get there and be in good form – for the bet to be a good one – 6/4 is poor.
That sums you up Ginge…A 50/50 wager and you back and lay both
…And that sums you up too… saying I’ve said something when I haven’t.
Take another look Gordy Boy.Where did I say I’d back it @ 6/4?
“Actually changed my mind”…. means one thing to me Ginge but obviously its normal for you as a look at your Hennessey wagers shows you must change your mind about 20 times when you assess a race.I on the other hand load a double barrell at big prices and unleash both knowing one will hit the target!
Hope so
But why run Vautour in the Ryanair if that’s the case.
Who’s to say if the going is on the softer side of good and both Un De Sceaux and Douvan are both flying at home that Willie and Ruby will be more interested in winning both races and stick Douvan in Ryanair or if anything was wrong with Djackadam the Gold Cup….?Charles Darwin to conquer the World
“Actually changed my mind”…. means one thing to me Ginge but obviously its normal for you as a look at your Hennessey wagers shows you must change your mind about 20 times when you assess a race.I on the other hand load a double barrell at big prices and unleash both knowing one will hit the target!
In my first post said:
So if I were laying the bet at this stage, certainly wouldn’t want to offer more than 6/4.
ie By saying that – as with the vast majority of prices bookies offer – in this post I would neither lay or back at 6/4…
But I…
Actually, changed my mind. Considering at the moment all three would need to get there and be in good form – for the bet to be a good one – 6/4 is poor.
So I’ve gone from believing there was NO value in laying or backing @ 6/4… To believing a LAY bet is advised @ 6/4.
Oh and… I went from having Native River as just a saver bet ante-post to making him a main bet, because I recognised the going was wrongly described as soft. It was in fact proper GOOD groundI was right to change my mind.
Yes, am well aware you’d refuse to change your mind.Value Is EverythingI think it’s a tough one to call on value, but my instinct is that I’d probably take it. I think there is every chance that on the day the fav will be 6/4 and that it’ll be one of his anyway.
What happens if Cue Card wins the King George? He turns 11 a few days later but is his engine going to start spluttering so much that he loses a 8 or 10 pounds ratings-wise in 10 weeks?
His Haydock performance suggests strongly to me that he’d have beaten DC last year so even if DC makes it, he’s still got to beat CC off the back of an injury and a rushed prep.
The Fellow proved that you can bounce back after placings in Gold Cups to win one, but Djakadam has won just twice in the past two seasons and he’d have DC to beat and on that, admittedly tenuous line through CC, beating DC would not mean he beats CC. He wouldn’t be nearly as good as The Fellow either imo.
Coneygree? He needs to stay sound and he needs to turn around a big deficit from Haydock. He’ll come on a lot in my opinion and better ground will suit, but he was beaten a long way (although eased, CC wasn’t thrashed home by any means).
Douvan? Mullins’ laserlike objective at the festival is to aim his horses at the races most easily won. All being well with Tizzard’s team, that is most definitely not going to be the 2017 Gold Cup.
On to Thistlecrack. Speculation, I know, but how about this? He turns up in the King George and beats CC. You’d do well to get 1/1 for the GC. He misses the GC and wins the Feltham then goes for the Denman which has produced 2 Gold Cup winners in the past 5 years. He wins that and goes to the GC a five-in-a row winning novice. What price does he go off?
Native River. 20s can be had and after yesterday I’d say there’ll be much worse value around than this rapidly improving 6-y-o. Will he get a KG entry? If not, where will he go before Cheltenham?
Will all three run? Tizz has said numerous times that the Gold Cup is the pinnacle of the sport. The horses are with different owners. None has had recent soundness problems (touch wood).
On the reckoning of my aged brain, a level stake bet at best price on each of the three Tizzard horses today return:
7/2 Thistlecrack: 1/2 your cash
6/1 Cue Card: 11/8 your cash
20/1 Native River: 6/1 your cash.
It’s by no means improbable that those horses will be 3 of the first 4 in the betting on the day and, all in all, I think 6/4 is decent value.
And to add to this, the yard has apparently acquired the 6yo French chaser Alary (best RPR 152 and improving) which will be trained for the Gold Cup – not impossible for the better British/Irish trainers to improve such a horse 20lbs!
Ginger sits on more fences than Humpty Dumpty
His g/f told me he’s terrible
on taking sandwich to the races
g/f – ok, brown or white….?
ginge – one of each:lol:
You’re closer to the truth Nathan.
Not exactly “one of each” but…
Make all my own bread using half white flour and half wholemeal with a little seeded malted thrown in.Value Is EverythingAnd to add to this, the yard has apparently acquired the 6yo French chaser Alary (best RPR 152 and improving) which will be trained for the Gold Cup – not impossible for the better British/Irish trainers to improve such a horse 20lbs!
Another one and Tizzard will be in Michael Dickenson territory!
Value Is EverythingJoe,
Hate to be pedantic, but in this sort of bet also need to take in to account the chances of one or more horses not running for whatever reason.ie When backing one horse ante-post a punter only needs to rely on one horse to get to the race without injury and/or change of target… and rivals non-participation will result in your selection shortening.
Where as backing three horses for the same race ante-post – just one of three need to be absent to reduce combined “value” significantly.
There’s always a possibility of injury, but with these three there are other considerations too…
Thistlecrack’s jumping needing needs to remain good – I think it will, but (as we saw at Cheltenham) there’s always a chance it won’t. Also a possibility won’t prove good enough in the Pillar/Aon and change targets.
With Cue Card being 11 year old there’s a good possibility he’ll be on the downgrade.
Will Native River go for the Gold Cup or Grand National? Connections at the moment favouring Cheltenham, but imo the Aintree suits ideally, particularly with two bigger Tizzard chances in the former and (something that isn’t yet considered) Colin may need both to have any chance in the Trainers title.All are only possibilities, but possibilities do add up to – in all – a fair chance one will happen. That “fair chance” reduces combined value and is why – if bookies give odds for this type of combined price – they usually give bigger odds than what adding the three particular individual prices together provides.
Value Is Everything
Yes, am well aware you’d refuse to change your mind.
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