The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

4/5 Kauto for King George – take it!

Home Forums Horse Racing 4/5 Kauto for King George – take it!

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 40 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #131113
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    I would argue that there is generally less risk involved when backing an odds on shot than there is when backing a 2/1 or 3/1 shot.

    Maybe that is too simplistic. :?

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #131114
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    You’re right, it is!
    In terms of percentage return on turnover, betting short priced winners is obviously less productive and hence the margin of error is less- you need to be right much more often, and that to me is riskier. At longer prices you can be wrong a lot, back some real stumors and still be in front!
    Flash, I reckon SP is the closest thing we have to an approximation of value, so you were of course right to still back your selection at 7/2 if it went off at 13/8. Over a period I bet you’ll be beating SP consistently when you are winning, and if SP starts to be bigger than the price you’ve taken, your method is flawed.
    I pick plenty of winners on my Lays and Plays thread Reet, almost 83 points profit from 140 staked from July to the end of November- 60% profit on turnover.

    #131118
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Don’t go there Flash!

    None of us know for certain what is going to happen in the King George

    I do!!! ….The winner gets a big cup :lol:

    Oh look there he is down there…….celebrating already :wink:
    /
    /
    /
    V
    .
    .

    #131122
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    I would argue that there is generally less risk involved when backing an odds on shot than there is when backing a 2/1 or 3/1 shot.

    Maybe that is too simplistic. :?

    It is too Simplistic…………2/1 Denman in a big field of would be Hennesy horses round Wetherby would be less of a worry than 4/5 that CH yolk you fancy in a 9 runner Xmas hurdle race.

    Sublimey itty or whatever it’s called…………much depends on the horse you are betting and how good you know him to be. Just being odds on is not enough to give anyone comfort………false favs every day of the week are turned over.

    #131133
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    In terms of percentage return on turnover, betting short priced winners is obviously less productive and hence the margin of error is less- you need to be right much more often, and that to me is riskier. At longer prices you can be wrong a lot, back some real stumors and still be in front!

    Carv

    Six million results say you’re wrong:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1830876,00.html

    #131145
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I must just be very lucky then :lol:

    #131170
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Best advise I can give…….pick up the Sporting Life……open it cover the prices pick your horse and back it………if its 20/1 10/1 or 2/1 whatever you don’t change your mind……….Look at prices beforehand in any run of the mill race that you are unsure about then you are doomed,

    One exception is never bet in a novice hurdle with minimum form, before the 2nd or even the 3rd show, just in case there’s a massive gamble on the go. Not unless you know something that is.

    If you find yourself swithering between 2 and are looking for that last winner in your treble….don’t half your chances by chosing one…..half the bet and bet both 1 x 1 x 2 and double your chances.

    If you find yourself skint every Saturday go and buy a book for the following week and write down your days selections and bets in it….and put the money in a tin…Then lock yourself in a cupboard and get the wife to let you out after racing……..Check the results open the tin and count your winnings. Do that for 3 weeks then when you realise just how bad a judge you are and how suilly it is to bet in every other race you are ready to start making betting pay………..Start Backing 3 doubles and a treble every Saturday…….3 * 20 d and a 40 t if you can afford it……bet nothing else for a year and you will win……….no ifs no buts you will win! unless you are a totally stupid idiot with a cabbage for a brain.then you shouldn’t be betting at all.

    Anyone doubts me stick 3 horses up here every Saturday and see how you go.

    Back off to the boozers ya can all thank me in 12 months time :P

    #131182
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    I would argue that there is generally less risk involved when backing an odds on shot than there is when backing a 2/1 or 3/1 shot.

    Maybe that is too simplistic. :?

    It is too Simplistic…………2/1 Denman in a big field of would be Hennesy horses round Wetherby would be less of a worry than 4/5 that CH yolk you fancy in a 9 runner Xmas hurdle race.

    Sublimey itty or whatever it’s called…………much depends on the horse you are betting and how good you know him to be. Just being odds on is not enough to give anyone comfort………false favs every day of the week are turned over.

    My middle name is caution. I do not bet blindly. Is Sublimity even running in the Xmas hurdle? Matters not a jot – he’ll still hack up at Cheltenham in March. I recall the then reigning champion hurdler, Night Nurse, getting hammered by Bird’s Nest prior to the ’77 Champion Hurdle and still sluicin’ up in the big one – the one that matters.

    Anyhow, gang up all you like – logic still tells me that backing a 2/1 handicapper is just that bit more risky than backing a solid 1/2 shot in a non handicap. One has to take into account the probabilty factor dear boy, that is, beforehand and not after the event. :wink:

    Merry Xmas and happy punting. :D

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #131220
    Bosranic
    Member
    • Total Posts 1982

    I had a decent bet on Kauto Star in the Betfair – his price, especially prior to the day, was an absolute disgrace.

    4/5 is a price worth taking. However, this race is slightly tougher. Exotic Dancer will never be far away. My Way De Solzen will be a far bigger danger than on his latest start. I was ready to take advantage of any OTT reaction by the bookies but, to my knowledge, he never drifted any bigger than 8s – there’s better EW value in the race.

    Taranis is an interesting contender. The ‘God of Thunder’ is closely matched with Exotic Dancer on their respective efforts in last years Paddy Power and Boylesport.com Gold Cup runnings. He also ran Monet’s Garden closer than most over 2 1/2 miles in the Melling Chase last April and proved his liking for an undulating, right-handed, galloping track over 3 miles last-time out. He’s open to further improvement and is available at 12/1 on betdirect. Racing Demon is also open to improvement and shouldn’t be underestimated.

    Does anyone know if the David Pipe duo, Celestial Gold and Our Vic, are intended runners? Both normally run well fresh and have pieces of form to their name which give them an EW squeak.

    #131223
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Does anyone know if the David Pipe duo, Celestial Gold and Our Vic, are intended runners? Both normally run well fresh and have pieces of form to their name which give them an EW squeak.

    Celestial Gold is 340 on BF, so I’d suggest he won’t be running.
    As for Our Vic, am I right in thinking that David Pipe has stated that the KG has been his target all along? Currently 38 on BF, so it looks as though no one’s ruling him out of running.
    He’s an able horse, but I wouldn’t touch him. For my money he was an absolute racing certainty in the Ryanair, and he did me good and proper with his terrible attitude!

    #131224
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Does anyone know if the David Pipe duo, Celestial Gold and Our Vic, are intended runners? Both normally run well fresh and have pieces of form to their name which give them an EW squeak.

    Celestial Gold is 340 on BF, so I’d suggest he won’t be running.
    As for Our Vic, am I right in thinking that David Pipe has stated that the KG has been his target all along? Currently 38 on BF, so it looks as though no one’s ruling him out of running.
    He’s an able horse, but I wouldn’t touch him. For my money he was an absolute racing certainty in the Ryanair, and he did me good and proper with his terrible attitude!

    I thought he’d wn the Ryanair as well.

    Our Vic is a law unto himself I’m not touching him again, no chance.

    He does go well fresh though and the conditions of the King George should be absolutely perfect for him. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him run a huge race. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he turned round and ran the other way though either.

    #131225
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    After the Ryanair, Flash, I swore I’d never bet in a race that Our Vic contested again, such is the unreliability of this clearly talented horse. Should he run on Boxing Day I’ll make an exception purely because ED & KS are half a stone ahead of him even if he runs to his best.

    #131282
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    I would argue that there is generally less risk involved when backing an odds on shot than there is when backing a 2/1 or 3/1 shot.

    Maybe that is too simplistic. :?

    It is too Simplistic…………2/1 Denman in a big field of would be Hennesy horses round Wetherby would be less of a worry than 4/5 that CH yolk you fancy in a 9 runner Xmas hurdle race.

    Sublimey itty or whatever it’s called…………much depends on the horse you are betting and how good you know him to be. Just being odds on is not enough to give anyone comfort………false favs every day of the week are turned over.

    My middle name is caution. I do not bet blindly. Is Sublimity even running in the Xmas hurdle? Matters not a jot – he’ll still hack up at Cheltenham in March. I recall the then reigning champion hurdler, Night Nurse, getting hammered by Bird’s Nest prior to the ’77 Champion Hurdle and still sluicin’ up in the big one – the one that matters.

    Anyhow, gang up all you like – logic still tells me that backing a 2/1 handicapper is just that bit more risky than backing a solid 1/2 shot in a non handicap. One has to take into account the probabilty factor dear boy, that is, beforehand and not after the event. :wink:

    Merry Xmas and happy punting. :D

    Think we came out of the same mould in many ways when it comes to betting, but you won’t be moved on this Sublimity will you?

    You can remember Bird’s Nest…….I can remember Salmon Spray cruising past Champion Hurdler Magic Court and Johnnie Haine looking over at Pat McCarron and saying is that all you’ve got.

    Everone said it was because he was getting 7lbs….well we all know what happened next……Salmon Spray kicks Sempervivum and Flyingbolt into touch and Macic Court isn’t at the races.

    The only thing you can bases fancying Sublimity is the fact he won last years Chamion Hurdle……….he did ok before and has done badly afterwards albeit unfit and unfancied.

    Personaly I would put him in the Kirriemuir, Beech Road category who won it once but were never a factor again. He is way too good a price for a horse that has won a CH and is close to running in another one which you could say on paper is no better looking than the 2007 running. The bookies think it was a fluke (edit bad choice of word) a "One Off" and I tend to agree……..he just doesn’t do it for me……he doesn’t have that buzz about him you expect from horses capable of winning 2 CH’s……Like Monkee or Sea Pigeon….Se You Then etc.

    Horse is done nothing to make me think he’s special and there is no class about the horse…………Thought he looked like a boat coming up the hill this year………………I am sticking with Katchit to improve before Cheltenham but will kick myself if Harchibald wins as I have said he is not ungenuine……the hill has swung me though and the fact most people say he is a rogue………Katchit 10/1 ew much safer than Sublimity to win at any price.

    #131325
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    One of the major firms are offering 9/2 about both Denman & Kauto Star remaing undefeated before the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

    It’s xmas and I just couldn’t resist. :wink:

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #131327
    MikkyMo73
    Member
    • Total Posts 1789

    One of the major firms are offering 9/2 about both Denman & Kauto Star remaing undefeated before the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

    It’s xmas and I just couldn’t resist. :wink:

    That’s a hell of a price – which firm?

    The pair are only about 7/4 to win their next races (KG and Lexus) and then they might have just one more run before the Gold Cup, and I’m sure they will be odds on for any of those races.

    But then again 9/2 looks too good to be true, and if something looks too good to be true, then it generally is :D

    Mike

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 40 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.