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4/5 Kauto for King George – take it!

Home Forums Horse Racing 4/5 Kauto for King George – take it!

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  • #5995
    TheOneAndOnlyTonyMcCoy
    Member
    • Total Posts 202

    I think that Kauto Star at 4/5 is pretty good for the King George.
    You may think that 4/5 is not worth backing and a big price is work having each way. But i think that Kauto is a banker and if you see the price of 4/5, the take it. Ladbrokes think that it will finish at 4/6.
    Exotic Dancer, right handed track – i think not!
    Back Kauto!!!

    Im bound to have people disagree, so i will love to here what you have to say :D

    #131053
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    If you can post on here over the course of a year regular odds-on chances and make a profit I’ll eat my virtual hat.
    I’m sure TDK will tell you that bookies will lay odds-on shots in Grade 1 races all day and night because they know they’ll come out ahead over the long run. Do yourself a favour and stop trying to back winners! To win in this game you must back overpriced horses- few odds-on chances are overpriced enough to be worth backing.

    #131054
    TheOneAndOnlyTonyMcCoy
    Member
    • Total Posts 202

    I was just saying, if you want a bet in the King George then get Kauto at 4/5!
    Im not relating to big prices, im just saying that that price for Kauto is brilliant as it wont lose. Im basing it on this one race only!
    So i dont see why you are saying about how many favourites come in over the year. Read it right please
    :(

    #131063
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3777

    If you can post on here over the course of a year regular odds-on chances and make a profit I’ll eat my virtual hat.
    I’m sure TDK will tell you that bookies will lay odds-on shots in Grade 1 races all day and night because they know they’ll come out ahead over the long run. Do yourself a favour and stop trying to back winners! To win in this game you must back overpriced horses- few odds-on chances are overpriced enough to be worth backing.

    I subscribe to Sir Peter O’Sullevan’s sage advice: that those who refuse dogmatically to bet odds on shots are only doing themselves a disservice. I would much rather back a 1/3 and 1/2 shots in a double than an even money chance. Of course, betting blindly and without due care and caution, can obviously take you on the rocky road to disaster.

    I always say, bet the way which suits you personally and not the way which suits others. Temperament is everything… oh yes, and our old elusive friend, profit.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #131065
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Do yourself a favour and stop trying to back winners! To win in this game you must back overpriced horses- few odds-on chances are overpriced enough to be worth backing.

    I think you’ve inadvertently hit the nail on the head of how I approach it, Carvills. An overpriced horse is an overpriced horse, whether it be 1/2 or 33s. You are of course right about there being more margin for pricing errors with bigger-priced horses, but the flip side is that a 12/1 shot priced at 20s is still a 12/1 shot, whereas a horse at 4/5 when it should be 4/7 is a safer bet to get a return on your bargain-spotting!

    As for Kauto Star, I see 4/5 at this stage with a week still to go as about right. If I can get 4/5 on the day however (assuming the ground isn’t desperate) I’ll definitely be on!

    (BTW, any prices being quoted for the Christmas Hurdle yet? IMO Harchibald is the certainty of the Xmas period, regardless of who turns up.)

    #131067
    Gazs Way De Solzen
    Member
    • Total Posts 2440

    I personally dont see the problem with Exotic Dancer on a right handed track.

    He showed in last years’ King George that he was more than capable of going right handed and got a very good ride from Tony McCoy.

    #131072
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    Your a bit slow I got 5/6 yesterday but in a double with Denman….Now as Kauto only needs to jump round to win,,,,,,,,,that gives me 13/8-7/4 Denman which is a knocking bet in my book, short odds or not…….The only horse I really backed at short odds in singles was Istabraq but then I went crazy and backed him all year leading up to the race. Was like taking candy from a baby.

    Backing horses you think are overpriced is dangerous, backing horses who you know for sure are over priced is clever.

    Example……Sublimity was overpriced on form but to the trained eye he was as big as a bull and should have been 20/1.

    Nothings easy and TDK is more likely to tell you that………..ok if you are JP McManus and in the know but for the everyday punter.my advice………never think about the price (unless it’s 1/10 or something real silly) and never change your mind because of it. Bet your fancy and enjoy your racing and listen to no one. Not unless AP McCoy rings you and tells you to get on that is.

    I think the guy is spot on grabbing the price if he fancies the horse. Incidentally he is grossly overpriced in my humble opinion The King George is only just over a week away and Kauto Star will be 4/7 on the day

    #131076
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2930

    I was just saying, if you want a bet in the King George then get Kauto at 4/5!
    Im not relating to big prices, im just saying that that price for Kauto is brilliant as it wont lose. Im basing it on this one race only!
    So i dont see why you are saying about how many favourites come in over the year. Read it right please
    :(

    Tony Son, calm your knickers lad or you will give me a heart attack.

    Like you I think he is nailed on to win but so was Arkle and we all know what happened there.

    The only way you can say a horse won’t lose (I say it all the time but you have to be in my club to do that :lol: ) is if he doesn’t run.

    The point Carvill is making is overall it is a very dodgy thing to do. Maybe not as dodgy if you are talking about proven Champions like Kauto and Istabraq but let’s look at Denman even although he is not odds on.

    Denman could be the biggest certainty who ever ran in a Gold Cup and at the current price you would think the bookies think that. Not a bit of it.

    How many people jumped on at 9/4 right after the Hennessy? The bookies must be in La la land singing happy songs. They needed Denman badly as Kauto was a huge skinner before he came along.

    If you went to ladbrokes right now and asked for 50,000 pounds on Kauto at 5/2 I bet you a quid to a penny they would not lay you half of it. You asked for the same bet on Denman at 2/1 they would probably bite the hand of you.

    At this stage for all we know Denman could be the biggest hype in the history of racing and the bookies know it. They have made him favourite over one of the best horses seen on a racecourse over the last 30 years and the truth is he could get stuffed in the Lexus and not even run in the Gold Cup. He is to me what is commonly known as a false fav.

    It is that type of thing the bookies thrive on and in a season there will be a dozen AP horses like Denman and 4 might win , 4 wont run and 4 will get stuffed. All will be between 4/5 and 3/1 at some stage.

    Obviously if you only bet the odds on horses the statistics don’t change enough to put make your chances better and of course you will end up losing. Unfortunately for us horses don’t know when they are odds on and they are supposed to trot up………..well all except my old friend Arkle who read the Sporting Life every day :wink:

    #131096
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    If you can post on here over the course of a year regular odds-on chances and make a profit I’ll eat my virtual hat.
    I’m sure TDK will tell you that bookies will lay odds-on shots in Grade 1 races all day and night because they know they’ll come out ahead over the long run. Do yourself a favour and stop trying to back winners! To win in this game you must back overpriced horses- few odds-on chances are overpriced enough to be worth backing.

    It is all about whether they are under or overpriced rather than whether they are odds-on or not. Kauto Star is beatable in the King George, but to be honest I would rather be a backer than a layer at even money.

    #131099
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Without really wanting to open the "value" debate again it doesn’t matter if a horse is overpriced or not if it doesn’t win.

    Yes you need prices but fundamentally if you don’t pick winners you ain’t gonna win a bean.

    The concept of "overpriced" depends really on ones individual opinion / interpretation.

    #131101
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    Don’t go there Flash!

    None of us know for certain what is going to happen in the King George, but I bet every single one of us would be happy to back Kauto Star at 10-1 or to lay him at 1-10. The debate here is what is the "true price" price of the horse? If you back him at under this price then you might get lucky on King George day and back a winner, but keep taking unders and you will lose money in the long run.

    Yes it is all open to interpretation and without knowing the exact conditions or opposition we can’t nail an exact price at this stage, but that doesn’t change the underlying principles of value betting.

    #131103
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Don’t go there Flash!

    None of us know for certain what is going to happen in the King George, but I bet every single one of us would be happy to back Kauto Star at 10-1 or to lay him at 1-10. The debate here is what is the "true price" price of the horse? If you back him at under this price then you might get lucky on King George day and back a winner, but keep taking unders and you will lose money in the long run.

    Yes it is all open to interpretation and without knowing the exact conditions or opposition we can’t nail an exact price at this stage, but that doesn’t change the underlying principles of value betting.

    Lol. I know this sort of subject rumbles and rumbles.

    On Monday a horse ran called Kruguyrova. On Betfair Sunday night it was around 9/2. I thought that was huge and was the price I was looking for. By the time I signed in it was 7/2 and I never saw it go back to 9/2. My price had gone but I thought the horse was thrown in so decided to bet the 7/2 anyway.

    You could argue that the "value" had gone.

    However it went off 13/8 in the end so despite the fact that the "value" had gone it was worth my while to take the 7/2 and I’m glad I did as she bolted up.

    What WAS this horse’s real price? The 9/2 it opened? The 7/2 I got or the 13/8 it went off?

    All open to interpretation.

    In the last few weeks I missed out on Harchibald and a Paul Nicholls Novice Chaser because the price had gone – both won.

    #131105
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Ok I was trying to be controversial, but the point was a serious one.
    I spent the first ten years of my punting life doing what FOF is on about above- i.e. doubling and trebling "good things" at 1/2, 1/3 and so on, because that was what my uncle the "professional punter" did. That and backing odds-on shots for a place on the Tote and being happy with 1.20 or 1.30.
    After ten years I began to realise that I couldn’t win significantly that way and that a bad run soon wiped out hard-won profits. The stress of having to watch an odds-on shot jump a dozen fences then crumble on landing at the last to scupper my 5/2 treble was no fun either. About then I started reading books like the Fineform Formula, Against the Crowd and so on. From there came the realisation that professional punters didn’t back odds-on shots but were more likely to look for weaknesses in a short-priced favourite and take it on.
    I don’t deny that there is value to be had at short prices but it’s much harder to be sure you are getting value the shorter the odds you take. For me to bet at 2/1 or less I have to think the horse is a near certainty. I guarantee that if most of you look back on your records over the last year (if you keep them) you’ll be losing on your bets at less than 2/1.

    #131108
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Ok I was trying to be controversial, but the point was a serious one.
    I spent the first ten years of my punting life doing what FOF is on about above- i.e. doubling and trebling "good things" at 1/2, 1/3 and so on, because that was what my uncle the "professional punter" did. That and backing odds-on shots for a place on the Tote and being happy with 1.20 or 1.30.
    After ten years I began to realise that I couldn’t win significantly that way and that a bad run soon wiped out hard-won profits. The stress of having to watch an odds-on shot jump a dozen fences then crumble on landing at the last to scupper my 5/2 treble was no fun either. About then I started reading books like the Fineform Formula, Against the Crowd and so on. From there came the realisation that professional punters didn’t back odds-on shots but were more likely to look for weaknesses in a short-priced favourite and take it on.
    I don’t deny that there is value to be had at short prices but it’s much harder to be sure you are getting value the shorter the odds you take. For me to bet at 2/1 or less I have to think the horse is a near certainty. I guarantee that if most of you look back on your records over the last year (if you keep them) you’ll be losing on your bets at less than 2/1.

    I’m with you there mate, I don’t like backing anything under 2/1 or betting anything other than win singles.

    Every now and then if its "worth it" if there’s a double that looks tempting I’ll play i.e. Hardy Eustace / Kauto Star a month or so ago but its rare and it has to be a limitted risk bet overall bearing in mind profit margins.

    Backing odds on shots I don’t find worth the risk the liability is too great and the relative reward not enough.

    #131111
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    It never ceases to amaze me how many experts there are on value, yet how few there are on actually selecting winners.
    My TV is full of them!:lol:

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