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4.15 Kempton

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  • #20533
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2805

    People always talk about "racing is crooked" and with the recent bans for jockeys and trainers, how the hell can a horse be 14/1 in the morning and then open 7/2 and win easily at 3/1. Also in the same race, a horse opens 4/1 and goes off 10/1 and looks like it will never finish out of the first 3 based on its form and watching the race, is going backwards two out. Racing is a joke!!!

    For the record, i didnt have a bet in the race but you can see why people form opinions about racing being crooked on the back of this. Its not like there will be a huge crowd at Kempton and that much of significant market support to swing the prices of the two horses.

    You only have to look at Green Earth’s form to realise it’s been mucked about with. 6 furlongs and 12 furlongs in it’s last few runs. It was 10lbs below the mark it won over that course and distance a year ago.

    Now why does this happen ?

    A low rated animal who cannot cope with large increases in weight, heavy handed handicappers, poor prize money. It has just won a race which, after deductions, will probably not cover the training and entry fees for the month.

    I was very disappointed to hear Tanya Stevenson claim on Channel 4 recently that what she wanted changed most in racing was an end to this type of gamble. Too many of the industry pundits and commentators are influenced by the bookies. Part of the beauty of racing is spotting these ‘ plots ‘.

    Racing needs to solve the problems, not just punish those who are legally working round them. Those practising in illegal activities should be severely punished.

    Todays meeting at Kempton would have been far better if it had been a split card – better quality flat and NH races.

    Too many bad horses in racing

    #383152
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5957

    Dear Mr Fed Up

    Well if it’s that bad go and find something better to do with your time and stop moaning about it. Please!

    Rob

    #383159
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 28471

    Its not like there will be a huge crowd at Kempton and that much of significant market support to swing the prices of the two horses.

    Fedup,
    If there is a sparse crowd, then that is a big reason why this type of thing happens.

    Example 1
    With a

    big

    crowd there is a lot of money placed on every/most horses. So two or three big bets on one particular horse will not change its price more than a point or two (unless we’re talking exceptionally large sums).

    Example 2
    With a

    small

    crowd (and probably fewer bookmakers) with very little money being gambled, two or three large bets (of the same size as in example 1) could well be a massive percentage of over all money taken on the race. Therefore, bookmakers have no choice but to slash the price of a horse they have one or two big bets, to produce an equal book.

    Bookmakers can lay these bets off on exchanges, but those markets aren’t exactly strong for smaller meetings. So again, prices are more likely to fluctuate wildly.

    Value Is Everything
    #383160
    Pompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    [deleted]

    #383167
    Mr. Pilsen
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1684

    Why has Pete’s post been deleted, and my copy of it that was deleted from this post?

    Shocking bias! You should be ashamed of yourself, Corm. This isn’t the first time this has happened.

    #383170
    Oasisdreamer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 305

    Ano,

    No idea who you are but you’ve as much right to post as anyone else (as long as you remain civil and the language is above board).

    To answer your original point the All weather game is clearly more prone to plotted up horses. With prize money not even covering monthly fees it is hardly any wonder that some connections try to set one up for a gamble. I’m not saying that is right or wrong but it is clearly a factor.

    With less liquidity the liabilities are harder to lay off. As a result the market can be far more sensitive to price movements either way.

    #383178
    rory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    Intriguing to note Green Earth tipped up by a good form judge on another forum last night (based on speed figures). He was also tipped up by Hugh Taylor when winning at Brighton in the summer. There’s no doubt something of a gamble was landed, but if there’s a villain of the piece, then it’s undeniably the AW handicapper(s) who are responsible for needlessly dropping a couple of recent winners by double figures for no apparent reason. With such ham-fisted assessments going on, there are bound to be similar situations in the future.

    #383180
    Zamorston
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1140

    I would love a logical explanation why the horse merited a 10lb drop for it’s 3 previous runs that were over 6f, 12f and 10f respectively?

    It seems to me that horses who are genuinely trying every time they go to the racecourse get stuck around the same marks for ages, but run a horse over 3 different trips and never get competitve and be allowed to drop 10lbs and enough to be confident to wade in and land a gamble.

    The handicapping system makes absolutely no sense at all to me….. The worst ones for me are the ones like the George Baker horse the other day who are heavily restrained out the back and never get competitive race after race, but are then steadily dropped down to a mark they think they can win off so the money comes and hey-ho all of a sudden the horse cracks out in a prominent position and either wins or goes close.

    Whilever the handicap system works like it is doing at the moment it’s wide open to be abused like it is being done…

    #383184
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    [deleted]

    #383186
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8979

    Where was it 14/1 in the morning?

    #383190
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5551

    Ladbrokes and William Hill opened up at 14/1 this morning Corm.

    #383191
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    Where was it 14/1 in the morning?

    My mate Victor Chandler up to 10am.

    #383194
    harrythehat
    Member
    • Total Posts 15

    As MarkTT says, the information was there in a quick glance of the form. Distance and possible addition or removal 0of tongue tie can also sometimes be an indicator. On the turf, there is also the going to consider.
    These things are not ‘bent’, merely the game between trainer and handicapper.
    As an aside, I have had a horse put up 2lb whilst standing in its box.

    #383195
    kasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    Oddschecker gives historic odds and their times – it was 19-1 on Betfair in the morning.

    #383269
    Pompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    Why has Pete’s post been deleted, and my copy of it that was deleted from this post?

    Shocking bias! You should be ashamed of yourself, Corm. This isn’t the first time this has happened.

    Mr P to be fair a) it was quite right my post was deleted and b) perhaps I have got away with more than some others in the past and perhaps that is not fair.

    In response I’m going to post one more thread, which I hope you will take part in, and then I won’t post anymore…how’s that for a deal….

    #383345
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I don’t think this kind of behaviour in racing will ever change, it’s a part of low quality racing that any punter or fan has to accept. There’s not enough money in the sport at lower levels to avoid it happening, and the handicapper can’t have seperate marks based on distances and ground preferences.

    Sir Mark Prescott uses the handicap system in this way all the time and he has a knighthood. True To Form (who I’ve followed since) was backed from 10/1 to 5/4 on his last run for Prescott, it won and has won off 19lb? higher since.

    You can always stick to the pattern races, where this kind of gamble and fluctuation in form is less likely.

    Me, I prefer to gamble on the low quality racing and sit and watch the good racing. This allows me to really enjoy the top stuff while (hopefully) making money off gambles and finding horses that have been dropped 20lbs, that are returning to C&D etc.

    #383365
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    The master of Heath House has a hereditary title rather than for his services to the Jockey Club handicapper.

    In fairness, he probably tells his owners what the long term plan is and if the owners can afford 18 months of training vets etc, before the green light then I think it would be spiteful to deny them the opportunity. After all, not every gamble is landed, but most of the jealousy stems from those outside. I’m sure if they were inside looking out, they would want as few people knowing as possible, someone might call it greed.

    I better stop or I will work my way through all the cardinal sins.

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