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Sprint Cup 2019

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  • #1453242
    potato
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    • Total Posts 832

    Thanks for the input Kevmc.

    Im going to completely change my persona and mindset just because some randoms off the internet dont like it. Here is my new posting style for the 3 20 brighton:

    The odds on favourite should win this but Prescots Ramatuelle could win if getting the breaks.

    Royal Dancer and Expo could get involved if on going days.

    Risk Mitigation and Miss Green could go well at bigger odds.

    Atlanta Breeze shouldnt be ruled out on hcap debut.

    50/1 Mystical Jadeite is a big price who may or may not go well. (though 100/1 would have been a bigger price.

    Hopefully my horse runs really well but if it doesnt then I hope somebody elses does.

    #1453243
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 832

    Atlanta Breeze wins at 12/1.

    I told you it shouldnt be ruled out. :mail:

    Potato quote:

    AN OPINION THAT ISNT SERVED WITH TOTAL CONVICTION AND ABSOLUTE BELIEF SHOULD BE KEPT TO YOURSELF :yes:

    #1453421
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21378

    I see connections are saying they think Khadeem suffered a foot problem in this race

    Member since March 2008
    #1453444
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26376

    This wasn’t a top class 6f Group 1. Commonwealth/Maurice winner Advertise and July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns missing and Blue Point retired. The Tin Man had looked as though age had caught up with him. Doubt he was at his very best but did have good market support on Saturday, suggesting a better performance was expected… And Haydock on soft ground suits the Fanshawe horse perfectly. Both he and third Waldfpad came from well back in the field. Latter quickly returned to form, softer surface seemingly important to the German colt. Winner helped by three with better form, Brando, Khadeem and Dream Of Dreams not showing their form. Khadeem on the ground, Brando with a physical problem amd DOD slowly in to stride and samwitched between Brando and The Tin Man. Just because TTM ran well doesn’t mean DOD wasn’t adversely affected; in a barging match one usually comes off worse than the other. Jubilee form may not be quite what it seemed at the time. Blue Point didn’t need to run to his Kings Stand best, just hanging on over a stiff 6f and Katchy went too fast early-on – so both winner and third below form. That said, DOD beat the other Jubilee runners a long way and is better than managed since; might be an Ascot specialist. Hello Youmzain seemed suited by making all at Haydock, not that there was any strategic positional/sectional advantage, just being ridden prominently suits him so well. Probably would’ve been closer to Advertise at Ascot had he been more prominently ridden. Being slower away there made that impossible. Although Stott has a good record on the horse, it’s not surprising a “better”/more consistent jockey was sought for this race and Doyle did the job perfectly. Nobody knows whether Stott would’ve been as successful so criticism of the change seems strange to me. Sprint Cup wasn’t a top class 6f Group 1, however Hello Youmzain is going the right way. Still with some physical scope and if progressing at the same rate will be a danger to all in the Champion Sprint.

    value is everything
    #1453492
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 832

    If Ryan trusts Stott to ride his day in day out winners and he has ridden more winners for Ryan than anyone else in the last 5 years then he should show his jockey some respect and put him on the horse. when you realise Stott rode the horse in 5 of his 6 races and won at group level on him and never finished out of the places then its wrong he got jilted for the man who had been unplaced on him on his only previous ride.

    I have no idea how anybody could think that opinion to be a strange one.

    So Dream of Dreams is now 0 from 16 at group level 1-2-3. Yet still they make excuses. This time he was bumped. Ok then :wacko:

    If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then its fair to assume it is a duck.

    #1453719
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 832

    Ginger please explain why you continue to say that Dream of Dreams didnt run to form? (and anyone else who agrees).

    Surely if a horse has been beaten in 16 group races and he gets unplaced in a group 1 then he is prettybmuch running to form.

    His only piece of form in a group race that actually looks decent is clearly false form;

    Blue Point won a group 1 just days earlier. It was an incredible feat to land the royal ascot group 1 double just days apart. Unsurprisingly he was stopping at the end which made the closers appear better.

    Look at the 3rd in that race KACHY at 33/1.
    An all weather specialist (5 from 6 on aw). His 2 best ever wins were at lingfield polytrack at listed level.
    Never won at group level as a 3yo + being unplaced in 12 of those 13 group races. This isnt a group horse either.

    The 4th in that race was 50/1 SPEAK IN COLOURS. A curragh specialist who was unplaced in 7 grouo races away from the curragh.
    He was 1st and 2nd in a curragh group race though even when he won he only beat the old boy 10yo Gordon Lord Byron.

    The 5th horse LE BRIVIDO did win a group 3 over 7f as a 3yo in a 3yo only race. He was unplaced in 6 of his 7 runs at group level since. The only place coming over 7f. Clearly not a group 1 horse or even a group horse at 6f.

    6th horse THE TIN MAN had been running so badly most assumed he was gone. Did return to form at his beloved Haydock for the sprint cup but his run in this race was well below his best.
    Forget about the tired winner Blue Point and its listed/bad group 3 form at best.

    How many more chances does this horse need til you realise he just isnt a group 1 horse.
    Are you prepared to give him another 4 chances and make it 20 group runs and 20 defeats before you say “hold on a minute maybe this horse who has been beaten 20 times at group level, isnt a group horse”.

    The team eagerly await when the forum has that lightbulb moment.

    If its ok for everybody to pretend that Dream Of Dreams is just unlucky and is actually a group 1 machine then I am claiming that ELEGANT ESCAPE is the rightful GOLD CUP WINNER 2019. I refuse to acknowledge or recognise AL BOUM PHOTO as the champ becaude EE was clearly unlucky :yes: :wacko:

    #1453747
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26376

    I find criticism of the jockey change a strange one Potato, because where it REALLY MATTERS (in Group 1 races)… Under Stott, Hello Youmzain was slower away in the Commonwealth and – as I said – without being slower away would’ve given Advertise a harder time of it at the finish… And yet (where it mattered) under Doyle on Saturday Hello Youmzain got a quicker break (tick), got (for this horse) an ideal position racing prominently/leading (tick) and WON the race (treble stars). Going some way to justify the change. Just because a jockey is successful at lesser levels (like Stott has) doesn’t mean he/she is as consistent at Group 1 level where there’s much more PRESSURE involved. Not only is prize money on the day of race more valuable, but is also worth many millions in stud value! We’d all have loved Stott to have been in the saddle, but when we’re talking about difference between winning and losing being many millions of pounds, we’re not involved. Therefore can’t blame connections. Nobody can say whether Stott would’ve won the Sprint Cup or not… But changing jockeys (putting a “better” jockey up) is all about consistency, the more consistent a jockey is the more chance a horse has of winning… And Doyle WON!

    Personally, doubt whether Ryan had much say in the matter either, suspect it was the owners who made the (imo completely understandable) decision. Suspect trainer and (in many ways) owner would’ve rather Stott been in the saddle, but having Doyle increased the horse’s chance and they WON!

    value is everything
    #1453762
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26376

    If you look at what I’ve said, Potato. I’ve already concluded both Blue Point and Kachy were below their bests in winning and third in the Jubilee. Yes, Kachy is at his best on the all-weather (and/or turning turf track like Chester). However, allowance must be taken for the standard of race and performance. 2 1/2 lengths behind Blue Point and Dream Of Dreams may be a little behind Kachy’s best all weather performances, but it’s not a massive amount behind…

    On turf Katchy had been beaten just a head and short head by Battaash (who gave 5 lbs) in the 2018 Temple. ie On that run comes out just 6 lbs inferior to the rating Battaash put up in that race. Or ignoring Battaash a short head (rated the same as) Washington DC.

    At that same course in 2017 in a Conditions race he was a short head second to Magical Memory at levels, the pair a long way clear of the rest. ie On that form Kachy comes out rated the same as Magical Memory. (Magical Memory had been 2 1/2 lengths second to proven Group 1 horse Tasleet in a Group 2 previously and Magical Memory (remembering Kachy and MM can be rated similarly on their turf form) also won a Group 3 by 1 1/4 lengths on his very next start).

    Kachy had also been beaten only a length by future Champion Sprinter Quiet Reflection in the 2016 Group 1 Commonwealth Cup – over the same course, distance and meeting as this year’s Jubilee. ie On that form (and with QR’s 3 lb sex allowance) comes out rated the same as or at most 1 lb inferior to Champion Sprinter Quiet Reflection (albeit the latter improved afterwards). Again finishing close – 1/2 length – a pound (or two at most) in front of the third Washington DC.

    So although it is true Kachy is at his best on the all weather/round turf track – those best turf performances – 2018 Temple, 2017 Bet365 Coditions Stakes, 2016 Commonwealth – can all be rated in the same ball park as Kachy’s turf Jubilee third.

    How you rate horses is up to you. But forget judging horses by finishing position, Potato. Instead try judging by distance finished ahead/behind horse X and you may then understand why/how I (and many others) rate horses.

    Jubilee 4th placed Speak In Colours was beaten a total of 3 1/4 lengths by Dream Of Dreams. It is imo unfair to reagard Speak In Colours as a “Curragh specialist”. Seemed to finish with a bit left in him at Ascot; imo jockey rode more to get the best placing rather than to win. Possibly a pound or two below his best but not much. ie Worth rating as 3 lengths or 2 3/4 behind Dream Of Dreams rather than 3 1/4. Where as…

    Speak In Colours was only beaten 2 1/4 by Sir Dancealot in Group 2 Lennox at Goodwood at level weights.

    Only beaten 3 lengths by Shine So Bright and Laurens in the City Of York.

    Speak In Colours was 4th at Ascot, Goodwood and York. But tbh am struggling to find any Curragh form Speak In Colours has produced that’s any better than Goodwood and/or York. Winning form or even placed form is not always better than a 4th place in a better quality race/s.

    Look at those distances beaten, Potato. It’s true that Dream Of Dreams is not the most consistent – and yes that’s a definite negative! But every horse has negatives and positives. At his best and/or at Ascot – on a line through Speak In Colours – seems to me Dream Of Dreams is worth rating slightly ahead of Sir Dancealot at that horse’s best and currently either on the same mark or 1 lb less than Shine So Bright. Laurens had a 5 lb penalty less 3 lb sex allowance, so Laurens is better than all the above.

    value is everything
    #1453767
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 832

    How you rate horses is up to you. But forget judging horses by finishing position, Potato. Instead try judging by distance finished ahead/behind horse X and you may then understand why/how I (and many others) rate horses.

    Why do you think I want to understand how/why you rate horses?

    lol at you talking to me as if you are my teacher on racing matters. :wacko:

    You have your ways (timeforms ways) I have my ways. Its obnoxious that you think I need to learn from you.

    Winning form or even placed form is not always better than a 4th place in a better quality race/s.

    Again you are talking to me like you are my teacher. you think I dont knlw the above. I could race 100 mtrs against 10 year old children amd come 1st. I could race 100mtrs against usain bolt and other top athletes and come last.
    Its completely obvious that the race where I came last could be better than the race I came first.

    You have written a lot of irrelevant things above.

    The bottom line is DREAM OF DREAMS 16 group races and 16 group defeats no matter how you try to jazz it up.

    #1453768
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 832

    With all these formlines you quote you havent looked at ground conditons did it suit all runners you quote, were all the horses fully tuned, were all the horses at there best, was it the right time of year, what were the conditions of the race, what was the trainer form like at the time of each run and many other variables so ultimately these form figures you are quoting is irrelevant and this is why you WRONGLY think Dream Of dreams is a group 1 horse. He isnt its that simple.

    #1453778
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26376

    Why do you think I want to understand how/why you rate horses?

    All I’ve done is to answer your question, Potato. It was YOU who asked me…

    Ginger please explain why you continue to say that Dream Of Dreams didn’t run to form?

    You keep on asking me questions and then – after I spend hours answering – you accuse me of all sorts.

    Of course – as I said – “how you rate horses is up to you”. But if wanting me to “EXPLAIN WHY you (I) continue to say Dream Of Dreams didn’t run to form”… To do just that then I need to “EXPLAIN WHY”.

    Yes – as I said – “how you rate horses is up to you”, but if wanting to understand why I rate Dream Of Dreams or any other horse the way I do, (NOT NECESSARILY AGREE WITH ME, JUST UNDERSTAND WHY) then (for future reference) you can do so by looking at how far a horse beats or is beaten by X, rather than position finished… Because I do not want to spend hours explaining why I rate every race to you.

    :negative:

    value is everything
    #1453784
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26376

    Again, it was YOU Potato who said of Speaking In Colours:
    A Curragh specialist who was unplaced in 7 group races away from the Curragh”.

    The implication is you believe his Curragh form is better than form shown elsewhere.

    Therefore in me saying:
    “winning form or even placed form is not always better than a 4th place in a better quality race/s”. What I am saying is in finishing 4th at Ascot, 4th at Goodwood and 4th at York all in Group races, they are imo on form (comparing who he finished behind and by how far) no worse than any Curragh victory/performance. ie Just because Speak In Colours wins or places at the Curragh and is unplaced in 7 Group races elsewhere does not mean the Curragh form is better. He is no “Curragh specialist” because he’s capable of showing the same form elsewhere.

    value is everything
    #1453807
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 832

    I questioned your comments.

    If I wanted to ask somebody a question on racing you wouldnt make my top 10 list of people to ask to be honest and neither would any of your other ids :good:

    #1453817
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 832

    Can I also point out that you said the following recently after you asked yourself a question in one of your other IDs on your thread recently about Copper Knight and this us what you replid (to yourself):

    Copper Knight is a York horse so can excuse him the Goodwood run, Istabraq

    The implication is you believe his York form is better than form shown elsewhere.

    Yet his last 2 runs at York produced a RPR of 107 and 109 but he has produced an RPR of 111 at Newcastle this season.
    Last season he got a RPR of 102 at York but a RPR of 104 at Nottingham.

    He is no “Curragh specialist” because he’s capable of showing the same form elsewhere.

    So what you are attempting to belittle me for saying above you have done and do the exact same thing. Copper Knight is clearly not a York specialist as he is capable of running to the same level or better elsewhere.
    You are a walking talking contradiction who thinks they are special. Clearly not.

    Pot, kettle black. Case closed. Thanks for coming :bye:

    Pro gambler who talks to himself on internet forums in different ids and contradicts left right and centre. :good:

    #1453838
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21378

    I saw a race the other night at Kempton Ginger
    Where a horse took a hell of a bump in the final furlong and was literally on the floor, picked himself up, rallied and won I believe or lost in a photo, I can’t remember but that certainly puts to shame Dream of Dreams if his little nudge was to blame for him running like that

    Member since March 2008
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