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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

3 May

Viewing 7 posts - 1 through 7 (of 7 total)
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  • #2046
    dale101
    Member
    • Total Posts 37

    Sorry for such a short priced winner…and if the truth be told Kyle was blocked in! anyway lets see if we can get a good price nap…

    Todays Nap; 2.30 Ling; Sensuous<br>Hannon is leading trainer,Ryan has rode her twice before and she did have a narrow defeat in a fillies maiden (Sept05),there is a question mark over the going…i believe the danger will be from Spinning Ruby.

    ;)

    #65194
    FlatSeasonLover
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2067

    Well done yesterday Dale, though I felt my selection come home with a half-full tank and was intimidated a little.

    2:00 Southwell (AW)

    A fiendishly difficult race as my adjusted ratings produce:

    Hucking Hill 72<br>Fairfield Princess 73+<br>Crystal Gazer 72+<br>Gradetime 71

    All have handled an all weather surface with Hucking Hill having had 3 runs on it. The newcomer is passed over here as it appears unfancied and will have to be useful. This is another race where I am searching for the value which has to be Hucking Hill at 8/1. The horse has an experience advantage, has little to find with the market principals and should be finishing fast and late.

    1pt ew Hucking Hill @ 8/1 (general)

    #65195
    FlatSeasonLover
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2067

    2:20P

    Top Rated – Steady As A Rock (75)<br>Next best – Jack Rackham 69

    2pts Steady As A Rock (5.8 on Betfair)

    #65196
    schumi
    Member
    • Total Posts 166

    great call FSL  well done

    #65197
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    FSL

    What is your system for producing a rating for an unraced horse?

    #65198
    FlatSeasonLover
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2067

    Hi DJ I’ve just been working on this today and I’m quite happy if you want to pour scorn on it but it seems to be working.

    I’ve not seen a horse run to a RPR of more than 100 on debut (i’m sure it happens but I’ll deal with it if it happens). Therefore I allocate the horse a score out of 100 and compare it with the ratings of the raced ones. To get this i split it up into several sections.

    1) Sire /30. How good was the sire? What is his record with 2yo like? Did it improve with experience? Was it best over 5f (as all the 2yo races in Uk are at the minute) What type of ground did they like? An outstanding sprinter will be given 30 (Eg RPR 127 create win loss record) a mediocre one, or one that didn’t like winning will be given a low one etc. An example of these are I’ve given Rock Of Gibraltar 27, Royal Applause 25, Auction Time 17 etc. (note those are based on a good or firm surface)

    2) Dam’s Breeding Record /25. Has it bred any superstars? Does it produce banded level performers. Often they haven’t foaled any so this has to be given a rating of 13 unless anything suggests they will proficient or need a run etc.

    3) Dams Race Record /25. I appreciate this makes the dam 50% of the final score but I think this is one of the most important aspects as to how good the juveniles are likely to be. Was the dam a good performer or pretty poor. When the dam is unraced I look at the breeding and how good its family was (half brothers etc). I don’t expect as much here as i do the sire but obviously its preferences distance and ground wise etc are crucial.

    4) Bookings/ Market/ Confidence /10. This is something i haven’t really factored in until recently. Is the stables main jockey on it or is a claimer? Is there a good word for the horse or is it weak in the market? Some people say this counts for nothing but i think it helps to factor it in. i also check here that i consider its racing weight to be acceptable. (Eg I don’t like them to carry too much weight on debut and if they are racing at 7-11 is the jockey likely to make it?)

    5) Stable Form /5. Self explanatory really. Is the stable struggling or doing well.

    6) Stable Record with 2yo /5. Do the stable win with 2yo first time out? Will it need the run? Do they buy them to train to be 3yo?

    I find this filters out the deadwood and gives me a couple of conteders for the newcomers. Obviously my results show I have not been immensely successful thus far and that is due to over-estimating newcomers mbut i hope this filtering system will help my with that now. I assume as you’re asking you have some sort of system David?

    #65199
    FlatSeasonLover
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2067

    ps Schumi hope you got the forecast! ;)

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