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Battling win for Sea Of Grace and an absolute bolt up job from Intelligence Cross.
A horse rated 15 lbs clear of a maiden winner at 13/8. Those bookies are generous chaps.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done Steve, wish I had had the time to delve into the form like that on a Sunday it certainly paid you dividends today, spot on.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Well done Steve, wish I had had the time to delve into the form like that on a Sunday it certainly paid you dividends today, spot on.
JacThanks Jac, I only really look at the Irish Racing and sometimes the French 2yo races on a Sunday and it’s only a few races and sometimes smallish fields, so it doesn’t take as long when you are selective.
I don’t go to church, so that saves a little bit of time
An interesting son of So You Think running at Deauville Monday. Neguev is out of a Bering mare and is trained by man of the moment in France Jean-Claude Rouget, who is more than 3 million ahead of Andre Fabre in prize money this season.
He looked likely to score with a bit in hand on his debut but he swerved right across the track, losing ground and hampering the second along the way. He continued to drift right to the rail and clung on by a short head, only to lose it (Rightly enough) in the stewards room. The front pair were three lengths clear of the rest.
In effect a winner, running in a maiden he should take the beating tomorrow.
Keen enough in front last time, it still looked like he had most of the field covered and I am sure he would have won had he kept a straight line. I expect him to grow up mentally for that first run and he’s a scopey sort that I like the look of. The way he moves suggests some natural latent talent there.
This was his debut run and I hope to post the video of him losing his maiden tag later:-
NEGUEV
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2261/
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Battling win for Sea Of Grace and an absolute bolt up job from Intelligence Cross.
A horse rated 15 lbs clear of a maiden winner at 13/8. Those bookies are generous chaps.
A very well bred maiden winner though. She’ll win decent races.
Wonder now if Caravaggio doesn’t run whether they’ll switch this horse to the middle park? I know Ryan is a big fan of the horse.
In his interview, Aidan seemed to indicate that Intelligence Cross would go to the Middle Park regardless of whether or not Caravaggio runs. I think IC didn’t handle Goodwood at all, he’s a lot better than his run there, and I guess there isn’t anything left for him this year apart from the Middle Park. They have a lot of very good 2yo colts this year, they are going to have to double up in the big races.
Steve do you think horses from France come over for our classics next year sadly i not see any of them quoted by bookmakers for 3 classics.
Steve do you think horses from France come over for our classics next year sadly i not see any of them quoted by bookmakers for 3 classics.
Judging by previous seasons you would have to say it was doubtful Darren.
Andre Fabre seems the only one to grasp the nettle on occasion but he didn’t really have contenders this season.
Give Jean-Claude Rouget his due, he sent Qemah across and seems to be sending Alamanzor to Ireland for their Champion Stakes.
Alain De Royer-Dupre had stated that Trixia would likely go to Newmarket for the 1000 Guineas this season but she missed her intended prep for that and didn’t show in the Classic. Her original trainer had stated that it was his ambition to prepare her for the English version and I still feel it was a mistake moving Trixia from a trainer who knew her inside out, to Royer-Dupre, who seems to feel that the season is two years long in his approach to preparing horses.
I tend not to back the French trained ones ante-post but did back Trixia after reading Royer-Dupre’s interview. He went back on it within a week though and it was a short lived dream. The filly did get back on track recently though and was available at 10/1, so that more than paid for the Guineas no show.
It simply seems that the French trainers prefer to wait for their own Classics and so early in the season do the English Classics come, that you can hardly blame them for working toward a late April, early May agenda, when there are extra weeks to get them tip-top for their races and the long season ahead.
I had the same frustration in getting prices for La Cressonniere even for the French Classics ante-post and bookmakers seem to have pretty clueless odds compilers regarding races several months hence. I suppose it may just be that there is precious little demand to make the practice worth the man hours, as it seems that only one out of every thousand people you bump into in a bookies is willing to bet ante-post. Betting ante-post takes both balls and foresight. Your average betting shop punter normally lacks both and seems unable to accept that there will be times when you don’t get a run from an ante-post selection, for one reason or another.
Over the next few weeks I will be compiling a list of my best prospects for next season and there will be several French horses in the mix. I will be expecting that they will probably be staying at home and that I won’t get any ante-post odds until the big 2yo races have been run on Arc weekend. Even then I doubt I will get odds for the French Classic until well into next spring. Such is life or C’est la vie as they say dans Paris.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One thing I’ve noticed in two year old races is how overbet some of the horses are.
For example the second race today I got sucked into backing this good omen. Maybe I should have avoided Haggas anyway on your advice Steve, but didn’t take a price, he gets turned over by a horse with a similar level of form, Hushood.
I notice Good omen’s price was 2-1 on. I wouldn’t have even bothered backing it if I’d known the price was going to be that horrible.
Neguev duly got his head in front at Deauville yesterday. He won by half a length with the pair well clear of the field. That doesn’t begin to tell the story though.
The race summary simply said that he was held up in the early stages but when I watched the race the jockey had to battle to get him to settle. Under an iron grip Neguev kept throwing his head violently into the air in wrestling the jockey and even after he stopped that he was still pulling too hard and only really seemed to settle once he got to the lead.
As it became clear there was only one danger emerging from the field Neguev kept on well but with his head cocked to one side all the way to the finishing line.
I suspect this horse has talent but won’t reach a higher level of the game until he learns to settle and can be kept both straight and straightforward. He ran on the rails this time so there was no chance to swerve the way he had done first time up.
I was surprised to hear that this was sire So You Think’s first winner but I think this could be a decent horse if he learns to settle and use himself to better effect, he may need time to achieve this.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2309/
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One thing I’ve noticed in two year old races is how overbet some of the horses are.
For example the second race today I got sucked into backing this good omen. Maybe I should have avoided Haggas anyway on your advice Steve, but didn’t take a price, he gets turned over by a horse with a similar level of form, Hushood.
I notice Good omen’s price was 2-1 on. I wouldn’t have even bothered backing it if I’d known the price was going to be that horrible.
Punters are very poorly served by early price guides for races. I am not saying it’s easy to match what the bookies eventually put up, but they are embarrassingly far out at times.
One of my heavy punters back in the day used to call the Racing Post price guide The Dandy and the Sporting Life the Beano, because of the wayward guides to the odds.
A good example of this was Hugo Palmer’s Mazyoun last Saturday, where At The Races had him 8/1 in their price guide. The horse started 1/2 and as fate would have it he got pumped at those odds.
It’s best to wait for actual odds than trust the amateurs to steer you.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yeah totally. I saw Good Omen priced up at 9-4 in one forecast, although as it only had one credible rival, it was never going to start any bigger than evens. As you say most of these newspaper forecasts are just wrapping paper for fish and chips. In fact one of these papers, I think it’s the guardian, has so low an opinion of horse racing that they don’t even print all the cards, they just put up a few races with the description “notable races today” or some other garbage, makes my blood boil, but I guess that’s another subject.
Wonder if Owen Burrows is catching Haggas disease, as he is sending his promising juvenile Akhlaaq to a conditions race rather than a group contest, apparently the last thing he wants the horse to do at this stage of his career is “over race”. Don’t really get it, is he implying that actually being forced to exert itself to the maximum might ruin the horse?
Another good example today in the second race at Goodwood. Brodie, put up at about 4-1 in the tissue, is punted down to 5/4 as if defeat cannot be contemplated.
Never really lands a blow. Backing a Cumani newcomer at 5/4? No thanks. What’s worse if you’d backed and it in the morning, didn’t take a price and it wins, you’re hardly winning anything anyway.
The more I think about it, the more I think horse racing maiden races should come with a health (or wealth) warning.
Another good example today in the second race at Goodwood. Brodie, put up at about 4-1 in the tissue, is punted down to 5/4 as if defeat cannot be contemplated.
Never really lands a blow. Backing a Cumani newcomer at 5/4? No thanks. What’s worse if you’d backed and it in the morning, didn’t take a price and it wins, you’re hardly winning anything anyway.
The more I think about it, the more I think horse racing maiden races should come with a health (or wealth) warning.
I quite like maidens as a betting medium, but putting a tissue price on these debutants was impossible. As you rightly say Judge, Cumani horses invariably need their first run. However, there were negatives all over the place here. Two with by far the best form of those to have raced had both run poorly last time out. Would Saunter or Heartstone run to form? If not, realistically you’re left with two debutants of potential/breeding to figure, who were importantly from the same owner and from in form trainers. When there’s then no money for one and quite a bit for the other – in what could easily prove an uncompetitive affair – you can see why a market move snow balls. Punters put two and two together and made five.
Value Is EverythingSaunter was my nap today on another forum.
He hadn’t run well last time as was said but on official ratings he was 90 and the Hills’ filly was 75, so with her 5lbs sex allowance she was still well worse off than she would have been in a handicap.
The Timeform blurb for the race stated that Cumani’s filly might find today’s trip a bit sharp.
What swung things for me was Saunter’s run behind Heshem in France where he was runner up. He was beaten 3 and a half lengths but the winner went on to beat the one time Andre Fabre Derby hope Ultra in the Group 2 Grand-Prix at Maisons Laffitte and that line of form looked the proverbial different gravy in the context of today’s race.
The price on Cumani’s filly was ridiculous. Of course she could have been anything but we are getting to the stage of the season when you question why debutantes of this type have not been out yet? Have they had a setback, have they been slow to show anything.
Muggins here took 5/2 on Saunter thinking that was good, and then he goes off 7/2 as the lemmings start throwing their money at a horse they haven’t got a clue about and are guessing on, hoping someone knew something. If they did know something, it was to get on at 4/1 and not catch the last bus out of mugsville at 5/4 when any potential value was long gone.
An excellent SP on Saunter while Brodie may have had the name, but wasn’t in her Prime today, which is why I gave her a Miss
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have noted a couple of pundits, one on The Racing Post and one on ATR who give you 2yo horses that they think are worth following.
Generally this consists of ones anybody could pick themselves.
David Lawrence on ATR seems particularly partial to sticking up horses who go off 1/5 favourite or similarly short. I don’t know how these people get the gigs to be honest.
Anyhow, the Racing Post guy gave William Haggas’ Contentment the nod as one of four to follow and the horse was out today over 7F at Salisbury. Not exactly Nostradamus stuff, as the filly was 1/2 Fav.
A winner is a winner some might say, but Contentment hadn’t read the script and got stuffed. It wasn’t just stuffed actually, she was kicked into another universe as Andrew Balding’s Poet’s Vanity scampered away to win by an astonishing 10 lengths over the 7f trip.
Poet’s Vanity came in here rated 62, some 16 lbs behind the Haggas filly, after a moderate debut. This was some step forward from her first run and I am wondering what her new rating will be.
It doesn’t look like a fluke in any way and Poet’s Vanity had looked fit and ready to run for her life today. Quite a remarkable improvement on her first start and an interesting prospect. She is by Poet’s Voice.
On the same card Marcus Tregoning’s Argenterie was expected to improve on her third to Rhododendron and duly obliged in good style. The Archipenko filly was pretty much always in command and although not winning by as far, she clocked a shade quicker time than Poet’s Vanity. I had intended backing Argenterie when she was re-opposing Amabilis but she ended up a non-runner that day. Nice to see Marcus with a potentially nice filly on his hands and she looks progressive.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think this Poet’s Vanity could be some tool. I’m no great speed figures man but my guess is that was at least a group level performance on fractionals and significantly better than the display that Madam Dancelot put up in winning her race later on the card.
Already she looks a significant player for the 1000 guineas.
Btw did anyone see the Swiss Storm race today? He looked absolutely huge, borderline monstrous.
I wonder looking at him whether it’s a good idea mating Frankel with sprint bred broodmares- you are likely to produce something that could almost end up in the circus
I find it absurd that Swiss Storm was 4/5 first time up and anyone backing that is taking blind faith at suicidal odds.
It won’t stop them again tomorrow in all likelihood with William Haggas’ Frankel filly Harba who is odds on already in some places and a best priced 6/5 despite facing other well bred newcomers.
I would probably opt for Eartha Kitt from the Dascombe yard in a 50p bet. This Pivotal filly, out of Ceiling Kitty, who won the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, is entered in the Cheveley Park. At 5/1 she seems a shade less suicidal a bet.
6/5 for Harba is, well, as Jim Royle would say, “Eartha Kitt” value I feel
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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