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I backed Churchill for the guineas but has he progressed from the Chesham?
A lot can change over the winter and I still think he’s the most likely one.Blackbeard to conquer the World
There aren’t any other serious Guineas contenders at the moment.
That’s very true Sunspangled and Churchill can clearly battle. He’s a likeable sort but I feel 5/1 for the 2000, which is one firm’s opinion, is very skinny.
The Racing Post has a big headline saying “Churchill enhances his Guineas claim” How so I ask?
He was red hot odds on and beat a horse rated 11 lbs inferior. Arcada had 22 lbs to find on ratings. It’s hardly challenging stuff and he must surely face tougher opposition before season’s end.
The Guineas market is ridiculous. Caravaggio won’t stay and Blue Point has been ruled out already and labelled a Sprinter.
War Decree sets an OK standard but not insurmountable and a couple of the other prominent ones look more likely to want more than a mile.
I’ve had a couple of quid on Escobar at 33/1 as a bit of value. His bare form looks nothing special but he looks like the type to improve and he’s rated 5lb behind Churchill on current RPR 105 to 109.
Escobar is a well made son of Famous Name and Hugo Palmer has proven his ability to produce a 2000 Guineas winner. Obviously O’Brien is the Guineas king but at more than 4 times the odds, at 33/1, Escobar has better prospects than some in front of him in the betting, and, unquestionably in my opinion, offers a bit of value at double carpet.
Escobar 33/1 is my Guineas long shot at an outsider’s price for some interest.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The betting told the story, with Rhododendron backed and Brave Anna an almighty drift to 5/1.
Brave Anna was never involved and it’s a mystery that she ever beat Queen Kindly.
Rehana travelled better than Rhododendron but found little off the bridle. Rhododendron looks like a mile will be better as she stayed on to complete a floral 1-2 with Hydrangea making it blooming obvious that these other Irish trainers can’t beat the O’Brien Juveniles.
Nice enough for Rhododendron fans.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Brave Anna was just getting a pipe opener today, I’d say she is being prepared for an end of season run in the Fillies Juvenile Turf
We shall fight them on the beaches. we shall fight them on the rowley mile, and we will never surrender!
Clearly Tabor is a fan of world war II history. Either that or his dad fought in that war. Churchill and Lancaster Bomber in the same race.
Was impressed with Churchill today. Maybe it’s right, that he only ever does enough. An imposing type with a huge amount of physical scope to improve as a three year old. In any case I don’t think they would have given him that name if he wasn’t seriously good. I thought the second came there with a serious turn of foot and he still fought him off. It’ll take a good one to beat him, that’s for sure.
I’ve been delving into this thread for a week or son as I want to get more experience with 2yo form. This is something I have avoided in the past, I came back to this sport a couple of seasons ago. I have made a decision to avoid low class handicaps as I have been getting inconsistent and frustrating results in that sphere and next season want to see the summer out the way the season is structured around 3yo and the 2yo in readiness for the classics.
On that score I would appreciate a few pointers as to recognising a decent 2yo and evaluating maiden form as a decent horse can simply outclass its rivals despite trip and ground.
Yesterday I backed Blue Point but was tempted by Mokarris. Also at Sandown I had an EW on Majoris but that one was a no show.
Also do any of you use the Dosage Index to ascertain the staying ability of 2yo, or is this too simplistic?Welcome to the forum Steve. Evaluating maiden form is often fraught with danger as they can improve so quickly and you have so little to go on. So much of it is intuition. I personally like to read as many gallops reports as possible to find out what’s happening at home. David Milnes is worth following on Twitter and the Racing Post as he is at the Newmarket gallops every day. The Talking Horses section on the ATR website is also good and there is often interesting things to read on the Sporting Life website and in the Weekender. You can often find some nice winners that way. After that there is nothing like going to a track and seeing them beforehand – that can give you plenty of clues. Also look at breeding (what stallions are good at producing 2 year old winners for example) and the trainers (many trainers use the first run as nothing more than education whilst others like having them ready to go). Once they have run few times it is about using the video section on the Sporting Life website to get a feel for the race. And don’t just watch the winners watch the horses that run on late in a race and perhaps ran green and will improve. So for me, you really can’t read or watch enough and, if possible, get to the track.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Call me a sceptic but I always worry when other horses are suddenly raised quite dramatically in the rankings behind a highly rated winner.
On Racing Post Ratings Arcada went up 16 lbs for his run today, compared to when narrowly holding Capri off on the latter horse’s debut. On his 4th start I am a bit surprised that Joey’s colt could improve by such a chunk. The other two colts went up 7 lbs and 10 lbs.
Isn’t it more likely that Churchill just did enough to win and probably ran a bit below his rating?
The Racing Post raised him 5 lbs for today’s win. He came in here comfortably clear and I am not sure how you could be sure he had to be at his best today, never mind have improved. Is it the time he clocked, or the fact that it was a group 2 race that deems a rise necessary?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve been delving into this thread for a week or son as I want to get more experience with 2yo form. This is something I have avoided in the past, I came back to this sport a couple of seasons ago. I have made a decision to avoid low class handicaps as I have been getting inconsistent and frustrating results in that sphere and next season want to see the summer out the way the season is structured around 3yo and the 2yo in readiness for the classics.
On that score I would appreciate a few pointers as to recognising a decent 2yo and evaluating maiden form as a decent horse can simply outclass its rivals despite trip and ground.
Yesterday I backed Blue Point but was tempted by Mokarris. Also at Sandown I had an EW on Majoris but that one was a no show.
Also do any of you use the Dosage Index to ascertain the staying ability of 2yo, or is this too simplistic?Welcome to the forum Steve. Evaluating maiden form is often fraught with danger as they can improve so quickly and you have so little to go on. So much of it is intuition. I personally like to read as many gallops reports as possible to find out what’s happening at home. David Milnes is worth following on Twitter and the Racing Post as he is at the Newmarket gallops every day. The Talking Horses section on the ATR website is also good and there is often interesting things to read on the Sporting Life website and in the Weekender. You can often find some nice winners that way. After that there is nothing like going to a track and seeing them beforehand – that can give you plenty of clues. Also look at breeding (what stallions are good at producing 2 year old winners for example) and the trainers (many trainers use the first run as nothing more than education whilst others like having them ready to go). Once they have run few times it is about using the video section on the Sporting Life website to get a feel for the race. And don’t just watch the winners watch the horses that run on late in a race and perhaps ran green and will improve. So for me, you really can’t read or watch enough and, if possible, get to the track.
I think looking at both sides of the family is as important as looking at the stallion if not more so, because most punters will know such an such a stallion is successful but they won’t know so much about the female side of the family.
For example if you look at the dam of Blue Point then she already produced a very useful horse in Formosina, who was out of Footsteps In The Sand. He achieved a high rating as a two year old and as Blue Point has already shown ability and is out of a more expensive sire in Sharmadal, there was every reason to believe that he would turn out to be every bit as good, if not better.
This is all stuff you can find out with minimum of research by my guess is that most punters won’t bother with any real detailed study of the pedigrees. Actually I only started looking at the dam sides recently because one of the forumites here directed me to this site: http://www.pedigreequery.com/
Agree with the trainers too as Joni points out. Some trainers just don’t bother with precious types or get them ready first time up, so pedigree analysis probably isn’t enough in itself.
I think Brave Anna was just getting a pipe opener today, I’d say she is being prepared for an end of season run in the Fillies Juvenile Turf
It looked very much as if she was just out for the run yesterday. RPR had her 13 lbs below form on 90 yesterday, compared to 103 for the Albany win. One firm has Brave Anna at 12/1 for the Guineas. I’ll pass on that one!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks for the advise thejudge1 and Joniblake and I will take heed. I get plenty of opportunity at the track as I’m a member at Doncaster but as I said left 2yo alone but been having too many bets in low class handicaps.
From now on I intend to see the season out properly.
Gonna do some research and initial judgements over rest of season and winter.
I’ll be quiet for a while, I don’t want to clog this thread up as there is some excellent discussion within it.
Thanks for the welcome
“There is a gap in the market” as the great Louis Walsh might say. I am not convinced we have seen the winner of the 2,000 Guineas yet. Caravaggio has been super impressive but can he possibly stay the mile? I am not taken by Churchill as a Guineas horse. The Derby maybe but, as Stevie said, he seems to do just about enough and I thought he was below par on Sunday. For me he lacks that turn of foot and I think he will struggle to win a normal Guineas. Look at the form of the Chesham – not good at all. The horses he beat narrowly have been beaten out of sight since. He may get lucky like Camelot did but I hope there are one or two better types still to come. Of the rest at the top of the betting, Blue Point looks a sprinter as does War Decree so the two I like at the moment are South Seas and Escobar but I would not be tempted to have a bet. It could be that we are yet to see the best Guineas candidate especially given that the Newmarket yards are a few weeks behind because of the virus.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think CHURCHILL as others have said will only do enough and i think National stakes be last race of season for him.I think WAR DECREE be Dewhurst
Happy with RHODODENDRON it look like she idle a bit when in front get further but like Churchill think 1m2 be best trip next year
Steve i not see 2yo races yesterday in France only results but any views on NATIONAL DEFENSE and INVINCIBLE QUEEN
Darren, I have been waiting to be able to put the videos up for these and now have them.
In what was to be a double on the day for the sire Invincible Spirit, National Defense made quite a stunning debut for Criquette Head-Maarek
In a mile maiden for unraced horses he broke well and pretty much controlled it from the front, simply going further and further clear. He ended up coasting in six lengths clear. This colt has echoes of Antonoe for me, with a similar physique and way of going about his business from the front. He looks big capable of plenty progression. It was hard not to be impressed by this and I got the feeling some of the others were well thought of coming to this race:-
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2299/
Hard to say how good this will pan out, the time looked nothing special and he’s a January foal but unless these were poor, he must have plenty of ability.
Later on the card it was Brother’s turn as Freddie Head sent out Invincible Queen for a nice 3 length success over the same trip. The times of the two races were virtually identical and the race can be seen here:-
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2300/
Invincible Queen is handily identified by the on-screen graphics and she sits mid division on the outside of the field early doors. Asked to take closer order, she picks up steadily and then gets away from them in the final furlong, looking like she stays it well.
Again, we will have to see what she beat but it was an encouraging start. Freddie Head hasn’t had the greatest of seasons so it would be nice to see him with a decent one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just a note on the 2.00 at Newmarket Maiden Fillies yesterday and the 3.10 Stallions Maiden…
Spatial won easily as expected to ease Ryan Moore slowly back into the final part of the season after injury…but catching the eye in the paddock was her half sister SOBETSU who ran 3rd after encountering trouble half way through the race and running on gamely at the finish.
Sobetsu stood out in the paddock looking more like a three year old, she has completely filled her frame and will be surprised if she doesn’t win next time out.In the Stallions Maiden at 3.10 LAW AND ORDER was the standout pick of the paddock. You couldn’t take your eyes off him as he jig jogged around feeling the sun on his back everything else paled in comparison.
The interesting runner was Charlie Appleby’s big scopey grey RUMMANI by Dubawi out of a Barathea (Claw) mare Claba Di San Jore. He couldn’t have a better pedigree and will progress and he holds a Derby entry…He looked green in the paddock and went to post pulling a little. In the race he also ran green but Buick got him nicely settled and 2 furlongs from home he was chasing Law and Order and he came up the hill nicely to take 2nd place. He’s obviously been waited with and needed the run and he should pick up a nice race before the end of the season.
2 x to follow
SOBETSU
RUMMANIboth by Dubawi and trained by Charlie Appleby
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Law And Order was paying a compliment to Salsabeel, who I highlighted earlier in the thread.
Salsabeel is also a Godolphin colt but by Exceed And Excel. He had Law And Order back in third when making a winning debut and the second has won since, albeit at short odds. The first three in that Yarmouth race were miles clear and Salsabeel has some fancy entries.
The Godolphin outfit have had a good season with their 2yo’s and that old question of how many will train on and give them realistic Classic contenders will still linger until they can get that monkey off their backs.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Any views on 2yo races at Curragh steve nice group 3 there i gone for BUTTERFLIES myself
Any views on 2yo races at Curragh steve nice group 3 there i gone for BUTTERFLIES myself
I’ve done Sea Of Grace as the value at 7/2. She beat favourite Eriyza last time and although the Weld filly won from Hydrangea next time and that filly went on to run behing Rhododendron, I doubt there is too much between them and 6/4 vs 7/2 seemed uneven.
I think a lot is being made of Hydrangea’s big step forward and while Eriyza can improve I suspect the Oxx filly will as well.
Not sure why, but I am not that taken with the Butterflies form. She was nothing special first couple of goes and was 16/1 when winning last time. The form doesn’t strike me as that strong but she could improve. I just liked the way Sea Of Grace went about her business last time and feel she could take another step forward here.
Just for a change in the earlier maiden, punters went for Taj Mahal and just for a change he lost. I was going to chance the Prendergast newcomer but when he was pulled out I left it alone.
In the Round Tower I did Intelligence Cross at 13/8. Holy Cat was a good winner on debut but the form of that looks nothing so far and Intelligence Cross has mixed it with Mehmas and Blue Point, totally different gravy to the others. I’ll be bitterly disappointed if he can’t win this.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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