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Appleby on Blue Point:
“I’d love to think he could get a mile next year, I think he’d be pretty dangerous if he did, but I don’t think he will, I’m afraid. On what he’s showing us now, he’s a sprinter, and that’s how we’ll train him and work from there.”
Interesting test for Churchill tomorrow. Track should certainly suit but got two good rivals in Capri and Lancaster Bomber. Think Lancaster Bomber is underrated and Arcada should also not be completely overlooked, his form is very good and beat the other two I mentioned at this same track.
Think we’ll learn a lot more about Churchill and whether he’s a genuine contender for the 2,000.
I wouldn’t be so sure. So far he looks like a horse who just does enough and doesn’t give a true indication of what is actually in the tank. No surprise if it is a similar story again.
Personally, I think the fillies race is more interesting. Will Rhododendron reverse the debut form?
My first thought on the Debutante Stakes was that Rhododendron looked desperately short as 5/4 favourite with Boylesports.
She made a promising start when second to Rehana and was then confidently backed to go one better in what seemed a two horse race with Amabilis at Goodwood.
Rhododendron mowed Amabilis down quite easily after the Beckett filly had made what seemed like a race winning move.
On the down side for Rhododendron in this group 2 race is that it was only a maiden contest at Goodwood and runner up Amabilis was pretty weak in the betting and pretty weak in the race behind Escobar when upped in class, rather than trying another maiden.
The other factor at the odds is that Rehana was a fairly impressive winner from Rhododendron and could also improve herself. She is at 10/3 here and that’s quite a tempting price.
Brave Anna was tipped by a few despite being 16/1 for the Albany at Royal Ascot. Stablemate and favourite for that race, Cuff, broke a knee there and had to be retired. The runner up Bletchley then went off favourite and disappointed at Newmarket in the old Cherry Hinton race behind Roly Poly. That seemed to start a feeling that perhaps The Albany wasn’t a great contest.
Subsequent events have given the form a different look though, primarily the performances of Queen Kindly. The Frankel filly upset hot favourite Fair Eva in the Lowther and that was a nice boost for Brave Anna.
Brave Anna herself had run behind Roly Poly on debut over 5F and again that looks better form now. At Ascot, on good to soft ground at 6F you might tend to have felt that on faster ground Brave Anna should get 7F. Being by War Front you would hope the faster going will suit her. You could argue that intrinsically she may be the fastest horse in the field tomorrow.
All in all I feel Rhododendron is a bit short and it seems that Brave Anna has class form thus far, mixing it with some of the leading names this year.
She would be my pick at 9/4, with the two month gap since her last run the only slight negative for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Brave Anna is a lovely, big filly and one I’d expect to see train on and develop into a very useful filly.
Blue Point looked a picture today – I think he’s improving and it’ll be a really, really good one that beats him remainder of this season I reckon.
I’m surprised that they are running both Churchill and Capri tomorrow, though I assume Capri is in there in case the ground turns too soft for Churchill. I have a slight suspicion that Capri will be pulled if the ground is no worse than yielding.
Interesting test for Churchill tomorrow. Track should certainly suit but got two good rivals in Capri and Lancaster Bomber. Think Lancaster Bomber is underrated and Arcada should also not be completely overlooked, his form is very good and beat the other two I mentioned at this same track.
Think we’ll learn a lot more about Churchill and whether he’s a genuine contender for the 2,000.
I wouldn’t be so sure. So far he looks like a horse who just does enough and doesn’t give a true indication of what is actually in the tank. No surprise if it is a similar story again.
Personally, I think the fillies race is more interesting. Will Rhododendron reverse the debut form?
Not sure. I find when that argument is made about a horse that “they are just doing enough” in more cases than not that’s as good as they are. It’s just nice to think they have loads in reserve but the reality doesn’t reflect that.
Today he’ll have his ideal conditions, I think they’ll have a fast pace and he has a galloping track which should suit, he’ll have no excuses for not putting up an impressive performance.
I’ve been delving into this thread for a week or son as I want to get more experience with 2yo form. This is something I have avoided in the past, I came back to this sport a couple of seasons ago. I have made a decision to avoid low class handicaps as I have been getting inconsistent and frustrating results in that sphere and next season want to see the summer out the way the season is structured around 3yo and the 2yo in readiness for the classics.
On that score I would appreciate a few pointers as to recognising a decent 2yo and evaluating maiden form as a decent horse can simply outclass its rivals despite trip and ground.
Yesterday I backed Blue Point but was tempted by Mokarris. Also at Sandown I had an EW on Majoris but that one was a no show.
Also do any of you use the Dosage Index to ascertain the staying ability of 2yo, or is this too simplistic?I thought I seen a horse with a good attitude and a good future last time with Lancaster Bomber and though looking like second string, I’m going to have an each way bet at 20-1. Rhododendron looks too short a price for me to bet her as a single but I might double them up today.
As I suspected, Capri has been withdrawn. It’s quite likely that Lancaster Bomber will do a Courage Under Fire, setting the pace for Churchill and staying on well.
As I suspected, Capri has been withdrawn. It’s quite likely that Lancaster Bomber will do a Courage Under Fire, setting the pace for Churchill and staying on well.
That’s killed the race as a contest now. This is typical protecting a horse from a proper race and another pointless group race if no consequence other than putting black type on a CV.
Why the UK trainers can’t send one over to challenge beats me. There is a serious lack of ambition with most trainers on these shores. It must be too much like hard work for these lazy sods to get out of their farting sacks and show some initiative.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I thought I seen a horse with a good attitude and a good future last time with Lancaster Bomber and though looking like second string, I’m going to have an each way bet at 20-1. Rhododendron looks too short a price for me to bet her as a single but I might double them up today.
I can see a 1-2-3 for O’Brien in the Debutante, Rhododendron seems to be the chosen one, but any permutation is possible.
Heff, ‘Come on!’
Churchill, ‘What’s the big hurry?’
‘We’ve a race to win!’
‘Plenty time. Keep your hair on…there. Done.’
‘Jeez, you’re a lazy sod.’
‘No point going crazy. By the way, you were out of order with that whip.’
‘Oh, stop moaning.’
‘Panic merchant…’I was underwhelmed by both Churchill and Lady Aurelia. I reckon Caravaggio would have won that Morny and sadly for me he didn’t run.
There didn’t look any reason to fear Lady Aurelia at the 6F trip and it’s my own fault for listening to trainers, knowing that they can be overruled from above.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Churchill looks as though he has huge ability, but is only using a fraction of it.
That is going to have to be true for him to win a Guineas.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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