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I know we have a big race discussion thread but I thought with the July meeting throwing up a few decent contests it was worth having a thread to run through the season. If you spot a decent maiden winner it could be put on here rather than starting new threads.
As regards the colts at present it is hard to look beyond Canford Cliffs. It will take something special to surpass that performance in the Coventry. Very surprised that it was being suggested on Racing UK that Arcano was a better Guineas prospect. Arcano looked very professional first time and again today. Why he should have more improvement in him than Canford Cliffs I am not too sure. Awzaan looked very impressive today but difficult to know how much he benifitted from being ridden from off the pace.
Those who follow the Irish racing more closely than I probably do – would Kingsfort be the best so far?
Quite an interesting Group 2 tomorrow – exposed types against those stepping up (Silver Grecian, Silenceofthewind).
Of the fillies it looks as if the Queen Mary form probably leads the way although I would be hopeful Misheer could close the gap on Jealous Again if they were to meet again.
Its far too early to say which juveniles are the best but cant argue with what you said stilvi. Canford Cliffs and Misheer have been best seen so far for me. Its all a dream at this point though!
Obviously Canford Cliffs looks pretty Good and Misheer, also the 2nd in that race yesterday.
From a Irish point of view its been very disappointing….i havent seen one horse other than Steinbeck and Lillie Langtry that have caught the eye.
Disappointed with the Bolger Juveniles…they look pretty moderate, hopefully it will pick up sooner rather than later as we are defo well behind the English this year in terms of strength and Depth
After the Coventry Stakes, ATR interviewed Richard Hannon later in the Royal Ascot week to discover any other 2YOs he was looking forward to debuting, and he mentioned a Pivotal colt which I spent hours looking for his name online.
Well, he appeared on Wednesday as Emerald Commander, and ran a superb race when missing the jump. I think he’s line for some Pattern class in the Autumn when there’s more experience under his belt.
Silver Grecian is another I’ll add to the list
The newcomer I’m looking out for is the Michael Bell trained Syrian.
- Total Posts 17716
Dick Turpin probably beat little of note at Salisbury on Saturday evening (again for Richard Hannon) but came clear in impressive fashion, and Radiohead looks a top class sprinter in the making.
I’ll also be interested to see how the likes of Fremont, Lord Zenith and Silenceofthewind progress throughout the season.
At this point in time Arcano looks the more obvious Guineas candidate. Canford Cliffs appeared exceptional in winning the Coventry at Royal Ascot, but Three Valleys and Rainbow View have proved how misleading runaway juvenile successes can be and it remains to be seen if he can continue to dominate over a longer trip. Arcano on the other hand looks to be progressing steadily – his maiden form is working out supremely well and, whilst I don’t think enough use was made of Orpen Grey at Newmarket, the winner was seemingly untroubled to edge a length or so clear.
He travels strongly, quickens well and should have plenty more to come (Delegator improved from his second run to this third last season, and I’d expect Arcano to do the same).
Canford Cliffs appeared exceptional in winning the Coventry at Royal Ascot, but Three Valleys and Rainbow View have proved how misleading runaway juvenile successes can be and it remains to be seen if he can continue to dominate over a longer trip.
I agree that runaway juvenile wins can be misleading and that many great 2 year olds never fulfil their promise at 3 … Gorytus being the biggest disappointment by far!
In the past, I’ve been excited by 2 year olds such as Raven’s Pass and Celitc Swing but there’s something more appealing about the way Canford Cliffs travels, the style he shows and his turn of foot that makes me believe he’s the real mccoy
No prizes for originality but hard not to put up Await The Dawn as a potential Group winner. From the very successful Slightly Dangerous family (Warning, Commander In Chief, Deploy) I think he won despite the ground.
Silver Grecian is another I’ll add to the list
The newcomer I’m looking out for is the Michael Bell trained Syrian.
Syrain ran a very good race. I was very impressed at the Maturity. Good call.
Banyan Tree looked a Monster for a 2yr old….i think he be pretty decent a Group 1 Level and is Bred impeccibly out of Group 1 Winning Mare.
This Cape Blanco should be another one in the thread
Cape Blanco is definitely one to keep on the right side. Impressive performance this evening at Leopardstown. Looks a Derby colt in the making.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
CMP Year Horse GSV Dam GSV [/color:1u7fzhck] Sire FSI [/color:1u7fzhck] Damsire FSI [/color:1u7fzhck]
0.55 2009 Sea The Stars 66.93 Urban Sea 71.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Cape Cross 8.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] Miswaki 8.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.8
1.39 2008 Henrythenavigator 72.23 Sequoyah 75.75 [/color:1u7fzhck] Kingmambo 9.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 21.1
1.18 2007 Cockney Rebel 64.48 Factice 75.07 [/color:1u7fzhck] Val Royal 8.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Known Fact 8.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.5
0.52 2006 George Washington 72.72 Bordighera 62.03 [/color:1u7fzhck] Danehill 9 [/color:1u7fzhck] Alysheba 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20.3
0.9 2005 Footstepsinthesand 72.28 Glatisant 78.34 [/color:1u7fzhck] Giant’s Causeway 9.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Rainbow Quest 11.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20.2
1.18 2004 Haafhd 71.15 Al Bahathri 76.18 [/color:1u7fzhck] Alhaarth 10.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Blushing Groom 10.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20.7
1.15 2003 Refuse To Bend 72.52 Market Slide 65.34 [/color:1u7fzhck] Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] Gulch 9.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20.5
1 2002 Rock Of Gibraltar 77.73 Offshore Boom 74.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Danehill 9 [/color:1u7fzhck] Be My Guest 10.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19.1
0.82 2001 Golan 68.79 Highland Gift 66.69 [/color:1u7fzhck] Spectrum 9.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Generous 11.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 21.4
0.59 2000 King’s Best 65.73 Allegretta 62.42 [/color:1u7fzhck] Kingmambo 9.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Lombard 14 [/color:1u7fzhck] 23.8
0.87 1999 Island Sands 62.78 Tiavanita 66.83 [/color:1u7fzhck] Turtle Island 10 [/color:1u7fzhck] JO Tobin 5.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 15.3
1.11 1998 King Of Kings 74.31 Zummerudd 69.35 [/color:1u7fzhck] Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] Habitat 7.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.9
1.16 1997 Entrepreneur 73.16 Exclusive Order 66.22 [/color:1u7fzhck] Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] Exclusive Native 10 [/color:1u7fzhck] 21.3
1.05 1996 Mark Of Esteem 70.89 Homage 70.23 [/color:1u7fzhck] Darshaan 11.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Ajdal 8.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20
0.7 1995 Pennekamp 63.98 Coral Dance 67.93 [/color:1u7fzhck] Bering 10.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Green Dancer 11.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] 21.3
0.58 1994 Mister Baileys 70.23 Thimblerigger 75.55 [/color:1u7fzhck] Robellino 10.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Sharpen Up 8.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19.1
0.95 1993 Zafonic 68.05 Zaizafon 64.47 [/color:1u7fzhck] Gone West 8.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] The Minstrel 9.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.1
1.58 1992 Rodrigo De Triano 77.75 Hot Princess 66.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] El Gran Senor 8.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] Hot Spark 6.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] 15.4
1.19 1991 Mystiko 78.46 Caracciola 70.44 [/color:1u7fzhck] Secreto 10 [/color:1u7fzhck] Zeddaan – [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!
0.57 1990 Tirol 74.14 Alpine Niece 75.09 [/color:1u7fzhck] Thatching 7.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Great Nephew 10.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.3
0.96 1989 Nashwan 76.13 Height Of Fashion 70.98 [/color:1u7fzhck] Blushing Groom 10.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] Bustino 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 21.8
1.16 1988 Doyoun 70.57 Dumka 60.13 [/color:1u7fzhck] Mill Reef 11.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Kashmir II – [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!2nd in the Guineas
0.79 2009 Delegator 65.03 Indian Love Bird 69.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Dansili 9 [/color:1u7fzhck] Efisio 7.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.9
0.71 2008 New Approach 65.52 Park Express 68.08 [/color:1u7fzhck] Galileo 11 [/color:1u7fzhck] Ahonoora 8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19
0.95 2007 Vital Equine 63 Bayalika 69.47 [/color:1u7fzhck] Danetime 6.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Selkirk 8.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 15.5
0.73 2006 Sir Percy 63.4 Percy’s Lass 72.014 [/color:1u7fzhck] Mark Of Esteem 8.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Blakeney 12.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20.7
0.79 2005 Rebel Rebel 54.4 French Quarter 63.4 [/color:1u7fzhck] Revoque 9.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] Ile de Bourbon 12.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] 22
0.52 2004 Snow Ridge 68.51 Snow Princess 73.25 [/color:1u7fzhck] Indian Ridge 7.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Ela-Mana-Mou 12.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20
0.7 2003 Zafeen 66.4 Shy Lady 72.01 [/color:1u7fzhck] Zafonic 8.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Kaldoun 8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.6
1 2002 Hawk Wing 72.23 La Lorgnette 72.91 [/color:1u7fzhck] Woodman 9.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] Val De L’Orne 13.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] 23.8
1.17 2001 Tamburlaine 69.31 Well Bought 71.81 [/color:1u7fzhck] Royal Academy 8.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] Auction Ring 8.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.8
1.36 2000 Giant’s Causeway 75.81 Mariah’s Storm 78.99 [/color:1u7fzhck] Storm Cat 7.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] Rahy 9.4 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.9
0.95 1999 Enrique 71.23 Gwydion 72.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Barathea 9.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Raise A Cup 9.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.9
0.71 1998 Lend A Hand 64.12 Janaat 71.55 [/color:1u7fzhck] Great Commotion 9.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Kris 9.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19
0.9 1997 Revoque 62.83 La Bella Fontana 57.55 [/color:1u7fzhck] Fairy King 7.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Lafontaine 11.4 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19.2
0.43 1996 Even Top 64.9 Skevena 76.75 [/color:1u7fzhck] Topanoora 9.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] Niniski 12.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 22.3
1.65 1995 Celtic Swing 66.51 Celtic Ring 78.02 [/color:1u7fzhck] Damister 9.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Welsh Pageant 12.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] 21.7
1.19 1994 Grand Lodge 73.36 La Papagena 72.38 [/color:1u7fzhck] Chief’s Crown 10.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Habitat 7.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 17.7
1.2 1993 Barathea 73.12 Brocade 65.06 [/color:1u7fzhck] Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] Habitat 7.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.9
1.17 1992 Lucky Lindy 61.3 Excruciating 68.33 [/color:1u7fzhck] Trojan Fen 10.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] Bold Forbes 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 21.6
0.95 1991 Lycius 78.97 Lypatia 82.4 [/color:1u7fzhck] Mr Prospector 8.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Lyphard 10.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19.2
1.1 1990 Machiavellian 78.98 Coup De Folie 82.53 [/color:1u7fzhck] Mr Prospector 8.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Halo 10.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19.5
1.24 1989 Exbourne 69.38 Social Lesson 67.75 [/color:1u7fzhck] Explodent 6.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Forum – [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!
1.09 1988 Charmer 77.89 Take Your Mark 80.42 [/color:1u7fzhck] Be My Guest 10.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Round Table – [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!This is a compilation of the horses in the betfair market, plus colts mentioned in this thread.
CMP Horse GSV Dam GSV [/color:1u7fzhck] Sire FSI [/color:1u7fzhck] Damsire FSI [/color:1u7fzhck]
0.83 Canford Cliffs 61.23 Mrs Marsh 74.08 [/color:1u7fzhck] Tagula 7.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Marju 9.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.3
0.65 Steinbeck 61.73 Castana Beach 71.82 [/color:1u7fzhck] Footstepsinthesand – [/color:1u7fzhck] Danehill 9.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!
0.77 Kingsfort 68.78 Princess Kris 73.73 [/color:1u7fzhck] War Chant 7.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Kris 9.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] 17.7
0.89 Arcano 64.26 Tariysha 62.69 [/color:1u7fzhck] Oasis Dream 7.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Daylami 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.4
1.09 Awzaan 65.48 Nufoos 63.79 [/color:1u7fzhck] Alhaarth 10.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Zafonic 8.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.8
1 Alfred Nobel 70.06 Glinting Desert 69.58 [/color:1u7fzhck] Danehill Dancer 7.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] Desert Prince 9.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] 17.1
1 Silver Grecian 59.64 Regrette Rien 67.85 [/color:1u7fzhck] Haafhd 8.4 [/color:1u7fzhck] Unbridled’s Song 8.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.5
1.11 Emperor Claudius 69.06 Virginia Waters 72.4 [/color:1u7fzhck] Giant’s Causeway 9.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Kingmambo 9.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19
1.04 Radiohead 57.5 Security Interest 69.67 [/color:1u7fzhck] Johannesburg 8.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] Belong To Me 7.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 15.6
1.17 Xtension 58.17 Great Joy 62.27 [/color:1u7fzhck] Xaar 8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Grand Lodge 9.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 17.8
0.74 Rakaan 61.37 Petite Spectre 66.98 [/color:1u7fzhck] Bahamian Bounty 6.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Spectrum 9.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 16.2
1.44 Monsieur Chevalier 58.17 Blue Holly 56.07 [/color:1u7fzhck] Chevalier 8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Blues Traveller 9.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] 17.1
0.58 Big Audio 59.39 Tarbela 59.35 [/color:1u7fzhck] Oratorio – [/color:1u7fzhck] Grand Lodge 9.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!
0.9 Viscount Nelson 69.78 Imagine 75.19 [/color:1u7fzhck] Giant’s Causeway 9.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20.5
0.73 Showcasing 65.94 Arabesque 66.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] Oasis Dream 7.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Zafonic 8.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 15.7
0.83 Emirates Dream 66.3 My Boston Gal 63.22 [/color:1u7fzhck] Kingmambo 9.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Boston Harbor – [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!
0.62 Orpen Grey 57.65 Sky Red 60.29 [/color:1u7fzhck] Orpen 7.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Night Shift 8 [/color:1u7fzhck] 15.6
0.85 Classic Colori 58.55 Beryl 67.13 [/color:1u7fzhck] Le Vie Dei Colori – [/color:1u7fzhck] Bering 10.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!
0.53 Cape Blanco 62.54 Laurel Delight 62.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Galileo 11.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] Presidium 8.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 19.4
1.47 Silenceofthewind 58.9 Betty’s Solutions 62.92 [/color:1u7fzhck] Eddington – [/color:1u7fzhck] Eltish – [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!
1.04 Emerald Commander ? ? ? [/color:1u7fzhck] Pivotal 7.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] Sadler’s Wells 11.3 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.9
? Syrian ? Lady Lahar 54.11 [/color:1u7fzhck] Hawk Wing 8.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Fraam 8.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 17.4
0.85 Dick Turpin 57.98 Merrily 60.7 [/color:1u7fzhck] Arakan – [/color:1u7fzhck] Sharrood 11 [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!
0.96 Fremont 68.69 Snow Peak 68.48 [/color:1u7fzhck] Marju 9.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Arazi 9.6 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.8
1 Lord Zenith 60.87 Lady Donatella 72.8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Zamindar 8 [/color:1u7fzhck] Last Tycoon 9.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] 17.5
0.94 Await The Dawn 71.16 Valentine Band 77.23 [/color:1u7fzhck] Giant’s Causeway 9.2 [/color:1u7fzhck] Dixieland Band 9.4 [/color:1u7fzhck] 18.6
0.77 Banyan Tree 68.46 User Friendly 66.73 [/color:1u7fzhck] Danehill Dancer 7.9 [/color:1u7fzhck] Slip Anchor 12.5 [/color:1u7fzhck] 20.4
0.77 Stunning View 64.85 Sabaah 80.22 [/color:1u7fzhck] Shamardal – [/color:1u7fzhck] Nureyev 8.1 [/color:1u7fzhck] #VALUE!CMP is Conduit Mare Profile Index. It is a female version of Dosage. I’m going to be be a sucker and pay $30 for the book, so that I can find out all about it. Contrary to the prevailing view, CMP had Rip Van Winkle and Sea The Stars as the stoutest runners in the Derby, so I think it is worth a look. (Low values are stamina, high speed.)
GSV is Genetic Strength Value. The ratings are out-of-date ones from 2004 I think. I get these (and CMP) from the Pedigree Query website, and pay $10 per month for the privilege. If I paid $300 dollars to the originator I could get up-to-date figures. I should have done this out of my Extraterrestrial winnings, but I went on a spending binge instead.
FSI is the Racing Post’s Flat Stamina Index, and is the average winning distance of all the wins in GB & I of a stallion’s progeny at age 3+.
I investigated FSI a few weeks before the Guineas, and I will stick with it, as it gave the 2nd, 3rd & 4th (out of only 3 qualifiers). Close, but no cigar. In 18 out of 21 years the Winning horse’s Sire had a FSI of 8.9+furlongs. Unfortunately, Sea The Stars also bucked this. However, please note that only once in 22 years has the winning FSI been lower than 8 furlongs, and amongst sires falling short of 8.0 furlongs are such illustrious names as Pivotal, Oasis Dream and Danehill Dancer, plus the Sire of the current favourite Canford Cliffs (Tagula).
I vowed after the last Guineas that I would be snobbish next year, and back something that was well-bred. That same weekend Bulwark and I said something along the lines of Giant’s Causeway being in the same league as Sadler’s Wells and Storm Cat as a stallion. I suppose that is pushing me towards Await The Dawn at the moment (after looking up Emperor Claudius and Viscount Nelson as well).
Michael Bell was interviewed in the Weekender today. These seem to be the three 2yos he is most keen on.
Activate
B c Motivator – Princess Manila (Manila)
"Owned by Highclere Thoroughbreds, he is a half-brother to Prix d’Ispahan winner Prince Kirk. He hasn’t run yet, but is going well and showing plenty of promise. I hope to start him over 7f in the next two or three weeks and I would suggest he is worth keeping an eye out for. I like him."Hypnology
B f Gone West – Sleepytime (Royal Academy)
"She is bred in the purple being out of 1,000 Guineas winner Sleepytime. I Have been pleased with what I have done with her and am looking forward to get her out on the track."Syrian
B c Hawk Wing – Lady Lahar (Fraam)
"He is a half-brother to Popmurphy. His work had been encouraging before his debut at Yarmouth last week and I wasn’t the least surprised that he won. I was delighted at the manner of his victory as he travelled so sweetly throughout. I am going to run him in the Washington Singer Stakes at newbury on August 15. He is an exciting prospect for the coming months."edit: oops! Left one out. (I blame the paper layout.)
Prompter
B C Motivator – Penny Cross (Efisio)
" . . . Prompter made his debut for the Royal Ascot Racing Club at Ascot this month and almost gave Hayley a winning return. The winner had the rail and a very decent 3 lb apprentice which made all the difference. It was a noble effort and I think a lot of this horse. He is entered at Chester on Sunday. Long term he could be a Derby contender."Yeah I have Prompter on my Derby list atm. I’ve got 100 names on there, compiled it last month although I’ve been extremely harsh and removed all Galileo runners. Bar New Approach he’s not had a runner placed in the Derby or Oaks (15 runners in total) so it may be worth opposing. Removed a further 25 as they’ve run. Stunning View’s on there, but I quite like the look of High Twelve of Gosden’s. For some reason I’m looking forward to Captain James Cook of O’Brien’s. No idea why.
Just wanted to give a shout out to Sorciere who looks like she could be very special. The 2nd, Special Duty, won a Group 2 on the weekend (beat Siyouni, although I’m not sure what his credentials are exactly) and the 3rd, Mata Kerajang, just finished 2nd in the Vintage Stakes.
Those in behind the front 2 have done nothing at all, but Sorciere apparently runs in the Morny next which will be an extremely hot race if Arcano, Canford Cliffs and Alfred Nobel all turn up as well.
This week both Azmeel and Black Snowflake looked as if they could be potential Group horses. One or two winners should emerge from the Sandown maiden but Azmeel only had be pushed out to finish well on top. Moves well and seems likely to require a sound surface. No surprise if Black Snowflake follows the Ibn Khaldun route and wins a Group race. He has shown a very willing attitude in his two wins. Unfortunately, his stablemate Chaperno (very well supported earlier in the week) appears the total opposite and unless allowing him to bowl along makes a difference looks one to avoid.
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