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HDLG says
It’s not a lottery
How ironic since the first winner was called LOTTERY
But in general, I’d agree with you despite what non race goers say at my works.
“It’s anyone’s race!”
Well in a way freak results can happen in any race, but generally the better class wins.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.“It’s not a lottery , recent years class horses have come to the fore with the handicapper giving them a chance”
Being ahead of the handicapper has been important. The more weight to carry the harder it has been which is understandable. Only one horse has carried more than 11 stone 6 to victory this century (Many Clouds).
Over 11 stone 6 = one winner
11 stone to 11 stone 6 = five winners
Under 11 stone = fifteen winnersOut of the race :
Ga Law
Cilos Emery
Threeunderthrufive
HewickThe best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Any second now wins his prep at Navan.
Im obviously aware the stats say he can’t win. But I know I won’t be able to resist a small stake on him on the day.
Im still hopeful that remastered goes there.
Apart from that I’m struggling with a strong feeling. Corach rambler does look the obvious one I suppose.
Chris’s dream and the big dog were previously my idea of the winner when they were a year or two younger or had less weight to carry.
Great to see him win Tizz, I’m hoping that there’s no more from me in this, but I can’t see me not betting him on the day.
I’ve got an opposite view of Remastered, and though I’ve bet him, I’m hoping, being NRNB, that he doesn’t go, after two terrible efforts. I also think the owners should stick to their guns with their views on Aintree. On song though, he’d have a great chance.
My plan to lay Delta Work is on track just now, and I’m hoping that in the week leading up, he’ll be short enough for me to keep some of him, but have a free race at the same time. That would be helped if Remastered didn’t go.
Delta Work 33’s
Galvin 33’s
Hill Sixteen 100’s NRNB
Remastered 25’s NRNB
Roi Mage 150’s EW
Roi Mage 66’s EW 5pls NRNB“If Hewick was mine is be thinking Charlie Hall as a start next season”
Shark had mentioned the Iroquois in May (3 mile hurdle, purse increased to $200k this year) as a target for Hewick, along with defending his American Grand National title in the fall. If Hewick goes to Nashville he might as well stay in the US for the summer and run in the big New York handicaps, he’s got the speed for them.
I hear you VtC! His early season form gives him every chance but his last two runs haven’t been great.
The way the weather is shaping up lately you’d think it’s likely to be on the soft side and that doesn’t bode well for Noble Yeats.
These under 11 stone runners are the en vogue ones and is another feather in the cap for Corach rambler.
I always make this my last serious bet of the season (I have little to no interest in the flat and would rather go to a summer jumps meeting for a social occasion bar one trip to Chester for their Sunday meeting in august!) so I’ll probably have Corach rambler on the nose. A couple of heart over ruling my head quid on Any second now and then pick out 2 or 3 at bigger odds could be the ones to pick up the pieces.
But probably no value in backing anything now until the day. With the possible exception of Corach rambler.
Winning at the Cheltenham Festival probably helped, TC.
No penalties in the Grand National, of course, so he gets to run off the same mark at Aintree.
Didn’t exactly win by half the track, at Prestbury Park though, did he?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"He didn’t Ian. And I’d be more worried about A) something bringing him down and B) wether or not he can come from behind 39 others at Aintree as well.
That sort of run style looks fantastic when it cops but Derek Fox is a complete hostage to fortune as there’s no other way to ride him.
8/1 isn’t a bet I’m willing to risk. So it’s back to the drawing board.
How many more forefit stages are there for this? As in how many more opportunities for entries to be withdrawn?
Le Milos is guaranteed a run could be interesting.
Mister coffey needs 7 to come out (touch and go) but he ran a cracking race in the NH at Cheltenham and I seem to have mental note somewhere in the back of my mind of Henderson always saying he’s always thought he’s a national horse.
What are the chances Our Power can sneak in? He’s very well-handicapped (too well) and he seems like a horse on the improve.
Vanallier @ 100/1 NRNB for me should be suited to extreme distance and Hills Sixteen @ 66/1 NRNB always thought this race would suit
I would agree, Miss Woodford, but he needs quite a few to drop out.
Regarding the race being a “lottery,” sadly I’d say it’s more of a lottery – or at least more open – now than back in the day.
Alex Bird the professional gambler, used to love betting on the race, saying there were so many fancied horses you just knew wouldn’t get round and that left great value on the ones you knew would.
Since the fences were modified, that’s no longer the case and sketchy jumpers are now still in with a chance.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Tizzards re. Mister Coffey
The trainer would bother me – Henderson seems very good at getting jumps horses to run very fast but not so good at getting them to do so for long periods of time – I think his best result in the race remains a second with Zongalero back in 1979.
Mullins seems to have pretty firm ideas about which way the wind is blowing in this race. All his entries are aged 7 or 8, except the 11 year old Carefully Selected who’s effectively a second season novice anyway.
If Aintree is the plan with many of his horses, though, why are they double-entered at Fairyhouse the week before? The week after I could understand, in case something goes awry, but the week before suggests he’s unsure about the target, which isn’t necessarily a good sign. Or is he just making multiple entries to confuse Elliott?
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