The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

2022 Phoenix Stakes

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion 2022 Phoenix Stakes

Viewing 17 posts - 52 through 68 (of 71 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1610274
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2725

    If he were mine, he’d be put away for the season.

    Trial and then Guineas.

    #1610277
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5644

    And tbf, Gladders spotted his Guineas credentials before anyone – I basically followed him in.

    That would be the dream outcome, but I’ve got a feeling we’ve not seen the last of the colt this year just yet.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1610280
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4735

    “To be fair, Aidan thinks every horse he’s ever trained is very fast.”

    He normally says his sprinters stay and his slow horses are fast

    I was very surprised he didn’t say LBB would definitely get a mile because he is a good mover and has a sound mind as that’s what he normally says

    #1610282
    LD73
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1774

    Being the 5th run of the season I would imagine a little break is in order and then bring him back for the National Stakes (11 September) & the Dewhurst (8 October) – Blackbeard would probably come over for the Middle Park.

    #1610283
    mickeyjp
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1108

    I think aiden and the lads have no idea what to do with him. Hes fast alright. The time shows that off him setting the pace. I suspect with a lead he would have won further. For stud purposes they would want a champion miler bred from no nay never but even they can see commonwealth cup and nunthorpe if he makes just normal improvement. For once i feel for the lads. Tough one to decide.

    #1610288
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2725

    “Brad’ slowly away and stumbled twice, so that’s not his form at all.”

    Brad was level with LBB a furlong and a half from home and has been left standing.

    He could start now and not beat LBB in the Guineas.

    #1610291
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5644

    Just to be on the cautious side, I’m rating the race through the third (OR 106) and that still gives Little Big Bear a monster number.

    Pinatubo was a pint-sized pony, Little Big Bear is the size of a Barrett Homes detached house – which comes with the freehold!

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1610293
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4693

    AOB comments still means a bit of caution regarding stamina over speed.

    “Looking at that he would have no trouble staying seven furlongs, even though he has so much speed and travels so strong. He could go to the Prix Morny, he could go to the Middle Park, he could even go for the Nunthorpe.”

    #1610295
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5644

    “He could start now and not beat LBB in the Guineas.”

    Bradsell beat Persian Force a length and a half at Ascot and was a length and a half behind him today.

    I reckon Persian Force has run his race and the whole thing has cost Bradsell three lengths maximum today.

    Show me the man (or woman) who ignores “The Word Of Gladders” and I’ll show you folly.

    The prophet put up Little Big Bear for the Guineas when he was 14/1 – he’s 5/1 now.

    I’m a believer!

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1610302
    Gladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2725

    Very flattering, Chezza, but I’m no prophet, as my finishing positions in the TRF Cheltenham and Ascot competitions will show.

    #1610306
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5644

    I’m sure Jesus said something similar.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1610311
    mickeyjp
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1108

    Suppose it depends if they have another top guineas contender. They could send denmark to the guineas before the derby. He looks a great prospect either way.

    #1610347
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5644

    In my experience, there are two types of precocious 2yo – the pint-sized Pinatubo type with little scope for growth is one.

    The other is the juvenile who looks like a 3yo already, maybe even a 4yo in isolated extreme cases.

    Both can struggle with making normal weight-for-age improvement and their peers catch up with him and overtake them.

    Native Trail was an imposing 2yo, but he hasn’t thus far dominated his contemporaries this year the way he did at two.

    It’s possible to put monster numbers on Little Big Bear, the time comparison with Go Bears Go is very favourable when weight for age is taken into account.

    But is Little Big Bear really going to make that kind of improvement from two to three?

    History tells us it’s unlikely.

    And will he stay a mile?

    The dam’s side has Arc-winning middle distance stamina in it, but he looks like his father’s son so far.

    But I think there’s cause for hope (though maybe my 14/1 Guineas bet makes me biased).

    He’s won his races GOING AWAY, the Anglesey was actually 63yds further too.

    And if I’m hoping a precocious 2yo will train on, I’d rather be with a big one than a little one.

    His next target will tell us plenty – the 6f Prix Morny looks at his mercy, the 5f Nunthorpe less so, and that would send a negative Guineas message and many would be scrambling for the 6/1 for next year’s Commonwealth Cup.

    I’d obviously like to see him go for the National Stakes at 7f.

    If he settled and won that going away too, it really is game on for the Guineas and I doubt you’d beat 3/1 afterwards.

    But if he empties out in the closing stages then, even if he hangs on for the win, the game’s up for the Guineas and the Middle Park and sprinting next year surely beckons.

    Fascinating racehorse.

    Sir Cherryade of Hampshire
    ("Chezza" to the proletariat)
    Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
    https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/

    #1610350
    Cork All Star
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3956

    “Let’s not forget what Pinatubo did as a 2yr old had people waxing lyrical and he didn’t quite live up to the hype.”

    And plenty of 2yo’s before Pinatubo as well.

    While I accept the reasoning put forward for why this horse could be the exception, years of watching these brilliant 2yo’s either not train on or get caught and overtaken by later maturing horses, means I think it is wise to be cautious.

    #1610359
    Turkoman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 211

    I agree with those thinking that he ought to be running next in the National followed by the Dewhurst. The connections successfully followed this route a few years ago with Air Force Blue; Phoenix>>National>>>Dewhurst…

    #1610360
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4693

    I don’t think he will go for the Nunthorpe myself.

    #1610369
    mickeyjp
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1108

    Im sure aiden was just thinking out loud when mentioning the nunthorpe. He can only really go for either the national stakes or dewhurst. No point in running again over 6f.

Viewing 17 posts - 52 through 68 (of 71 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.