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Betfair Exchange Trophy 2018

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Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 26 total)
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  • #1389503
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16035

    Always a tough old race this one, and this years renewsl doesn’t look any more straightforward……

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/betfair-exchange-trophy/winner

    No surprise to see Brain Power cut across the board, but would he head here?

    I’ve no intention of playing Antepost, but this quartet certainly catch the eye, for a variety of reasons….

    Lisp 14’s
    Flying Tiger 16’s
    Mohaayed 20’s
    Chatez 25’s

    Gun to my head, Flying Tiger would be #1 right now, I think he’s a bigger price because of those exploits over fences, but I’m happy to wait till final decs.

    #1389682
    Avatar photoraymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6951

    CYRIUS DARIUS for me at first look Bobby. Could be a class above these if Mr Tizz has got him fit and ready for this!! 16/1 could be a very attractive price!!

    #1389704
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9608

    Not Never 14-1. Gary Moore feared in races like this.

    #1389709
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16035

    Raymo, my shortlist is ever changing here, and Cyrus is up there for me too now.

    Happy to chop and change, as not parting with one cent till final decs. I’m even looking at Apples Shakira now at 25’s, that looks pretty big, as does Grand Sancy at 20’s.

    Definitely a “wait and see” job.

    #1389717
    Avatar photojackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3940

    All over Tornado Watch for this.

    1) It’s right handed- he needs to go this way.

    2)Emmet Mullin’s- if he sends him it’s definitely going there with a chance. He tends to have few runners, but when they run they run very well. His strike rate is decent. 1 from 2 with his travellers to GB.

    3) 133 workable, yes it’s up from his 123 where he finished 5th behind very very well handicapped Wonder Laish. He was very far back that day and finished very strongly. The four home in front of him are all very decent handicappers. He’ll possibly get a claimer anyway. Mr Antolini in the same race came across from IRE to NTD with a last handicap run of 111 (now 141). Now i am not saying i would expect TW to improve as much as that, but it shows there is still a handicapping issue in GB with Ire horses. Fiesole could be argued the same, but his form overall isn’t quite as strong + gets the same mark for a win at Tipperary. He also has some solid flat form with higher rated horses such as David’s Charm + awayinthewest..

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1389755
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9608

    Bear in mind folks the weights are due to go up a stone or close to it.
    The 2 I like are the ones beginning with N. Not Never and Nietzsche.

    #1389764
    Avatar photojackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3940

    Yep Mike- the weights have changed, still happy with mine as really they are all relative.

    Even better news David Mullins takes the ride…

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1389785
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16035

    I like that jockey booking too Jack, and Tornado is another to make that shortlist of mine.

    Just too big a shortlist for me, so back to the drawing board, though might just sit it out now.

    #1389795
    Avatar photoraymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6951

    I backed Tornado last time out guys and he came from a long way back and would be a little worried he may get outpaced at a crucial time during the race. Geraghty an interesting booking for my pick. Am happy with that and the price too :good: :good:

    #1389827
    Avatar photoKevMc
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1326

    Tornado Watch for me here too at 16s.

    That run LTO i really liked and was running against this class of horse in that. Will enjoy a stiff finish also.

    #1389829
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 9608

    the last 11 winners of this race all had a top 3 in their last run over hurdles.

    Didn’t realise this until reading it just now. As it happens my 2 meet that criteria. :good:

    yes, I know what some are going to say, stats are there to be broken, and all that. I’m just putting it up for those still considering what to back. :mail:

    #1389851
    Avatar photoraymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6951

    I didn’t think he would turn up but had to back WESTERN RYDER at 10/1 6 places for this. He could be a class act going on his run last week!!

    :good: :good:

    #1389869
    Avatar photoDBRDBR
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1351

    I like Fidux EW at 14/1. Gone up a lot in the weights, but he is only 5 and improving. Course form and beaten the very useful Global Citizen easily here last time.

    #1389890
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16035

    Won’t be a big betting race for me now, just too tricky, but for a bit of interest, I’ll side with Chatez as the #1, with the other pair as backup….

    Chatez 16’s

    Cyrus Darius 14’s
    Mohaayed 25’s

    #1389906
    Avatar photoTriptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 18736

    I was kicking myself after Nietzsche won the Greatwood at 20/1 after seeing him run a decent 2nd to runaway winner Hawridge Flyer at Newmarket (Nov 2nd) and I’m not letting him get away this time.

    He progressed in leaps and bounds from the Newmarket race and shot up in the ratings after his Group 3 Greatwood win and now he takes a drop in class again which could see him go close and hopefully win again. :good: Jac

    12/1 – Nietzsche

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1389929
    Avatar photocharlie87
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    • Total Posts 890

    Mont Des Avaloirs @ 14/1 carries my money. Small EW on First Figaro

    #1389977
    Avatar photoPants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 647

    Mr Antolini and Western Ryder both ew for me.

    Good luck all.

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