Topham 2017

Thankfully the field has been whittled down a fair bit today, and 39 still stand their ground. My initial pick Definite Ruby, hasn’t made the cut, though she was always going to be struggling anyway, and have no regrets at chancing a few quid on her at such large odds. Time for a fresh look.

Very keen on Clarcam, and he was the one horse that I wanted to see in the entries for this, as I’ve had it mind for him for a while. Seems, touch wood, to be a very safe conveyance, and despite being one of those Giggs horses you seem to see over a variety of trips, I think this would be his optimum. I don’t think The Ultima was ever going to see him at his best, and it would be no surprise to see him burst into life here. Not necessarily, on first viewing, the best handicapped horse in the race, but considering that they run him in the odd unsuitable race, then it just might be that we’ve still to see the very best of him. He’s mixed it with some very decent animals, and if he’s in the same mood as he was in last years Galway Plate, then he looks to have every chance. He’s from a top yard in Gordon Elliot, he won’t have any ground concerns, at at 25-1, he’s worth a go, that’s big

Another a horse I like is the former Gigginstown horse, Bright New Dawn. He travelled like the winner in that Galway Plate, and certainly wasn’t disgraced in 8th. I had The Brown Advisory Plate in mind for him this season, and even more so when he was sold, and transferred to Venetia Williams yard, a trainer who likes that race. He didn’t get an entry though, and he was Grand Annual bound, yet another try at 2 Miles, a trip a few furlongs short of his best. He actually ran really well that day, looking to hold every chance 2 out, and it was easily his best attempt over the trip for his new handler. After a few tries for her over the minimum trip, a few tries which have seen him slip down the weights, then the step up here just might be what he needs, in fact I’m sure it is. The 40-1, which is widely available, looks huge. His stablemate, Vic De Touzaine, is attracting support, and he has bits and pieces of form, but I think Bright New Dawn is the one from this yard.

Those would be my main 2 fancies, but in a race of this nature, there are dangers everywhere you look.

I fancy the Rebecca Curtis yard to have a fine spring, and although I’ve always been an Irish Cavalier fan, there’s surely other targets for him, and I’d love to add Vintage Vinnie, at 33’s. I’ve followed him since his Novice Days, and the jumping issues which held him back for so long, seem to have been ironed out. He had a fine time of it last summer, and it may just be that he’s a horse to concentrate on as the weather improves. I bet him for both The Betvictor at Cheltenham, and The Grand Sefton, and it was that race at Aintree which cemented my opinion that he was worth a second try round here. Seemed to take to it ok, and considering the hard time he had of it a couple weeks earlier in The Betvictor, then it was a fine effort. I can see him running a big race, without actually landing it, but he’s definitely worth a try at 33’s for some place money.

In front of Vinnie in that Grand Sefton were winner As De Mee, and runner up Seefood. Seefood did little wrong that day, and it’s no surprise to see him near the head of the market. He was a notebook horse of mine a few years back, and on his day, he is pretty decent. I never envisaged him going chasing at all, and if he were mine, he would always have remained over hurdles, but he did do well here in December, and I would love to see him run a big race. I’m still not convinced at his fencing, but he was bought to win a National, and this looks the perfect opportunity to get him on a high enough mark to get into the big one next year, so they’ll have left no stone unturned with him. He’s had his sharpener over hurdles, and he’s only a pound higher this time, so he looks to deserve that support. He could no nothing to stop As De Mee that day, and he looked a natural round here, and ran out a very impressive winner. He was quickly scratched from The National last month, and whenever connections do that, without waiting for the forfeit stage, while entering him for a similar prize, then I usually take notice. It suggests to me that Paul Nicholls is very keen on him. I’d be happy to put a line through his 2 subsequent runs. The going at Cheltenham in January looked desperate, and I’d forgive anyone a poor run that day, while there was no shame in going down to Kilcrea Vale last time. No, I think this will have been the aim all along, and as well as suspecting that they’re very happy with him, it’s also worth noting that he’s already jocked up, with Sean Bowen keeping the ride as usual. He could still have a few pounds in hand, and the 12’s looks fair.

Nicholls has only got the one other entered, and it’s the very useful Bouvreil. He’s ran 3 solid races in defeat this season, all at Cheltenham, and he looked as good as ever last time in The Plate. I thought he might be stepped up in trip soon, but no complaints about them keeping him short of the 3 miles for now, and it’s hard to find too many negatives about him, certainly not off his current mark. Looks to have plenty of positives, and always dangerous to write off a JP horse in this.

JP landed this with Eastlake last year, and he’s entered up again. Having followed him for 2, 3 years now, it was a bitter pill to swallow, considering he was 33’s in the morning, and just as bitter when I wrote him off again earlier in the season at Cheltenham, where he came in at 33’s. He’ll be coming here 12 lbs higher than last year off the back of those 2 wins, but he ran with credit in The Grand Annual, and I’m in no mood to write him off this time, especially with a bit of 20-1 about. He’s clearly a horse who thrives when I dismiss him, and I’ll sort of do it again, and say that I prefer his stablemate Go Conquer, who’s vying for favouritism. Not difficult to see why, he looked particularly good at Cheltenham last time, and no surprise to see support for him on this thread already, as the yard go for 2 in a row.

Another trainer who landed this in consecutive years was Nicky Henderson, and he looks to have some leading contenders this time around, in the shape of Gold Present & O O Seven. Both look ideal for this, and like Go Conquer, no surprise to see favourable mentions for them here already. Gold Present looks particularly well treated off of his last 2 runs, and he has to be on everyone’s shortlist surely, he’s very hard to be negative about. 007 has shown his quirks this year, but there’s plenty of ability there, and after being blown away by his stablemate in The RSA, the step down in trip could make all the difference here, and I can’t believe you can still get 25’s for him. Both serious chances. I would have my reservations about Cocktails at Dawn, and he looks as if he could be National bound.

You can’t give them all a good word, and another one I would have reservations about is Thomas Brown. I’m no one one for dismissing any horse too readily, but 3 times this season, he’s been the first one I’ve written off, certainly from the head of those markets, and as the money comes for him again, as low as 12’s in places, I’ll have to say it again, I just don’t see it. He is slipping down the weights, and he did win here earlier in the season, but there seems to be plenty at bigger prices with more realistic prices. He’ll put egg on my face at some point, and I do like Harry Fry horses for races like this, but I just have to be against him again, and I’ll be the first to hold my hands up if I get it wrong. Fry is also represented by Henryville, and he’s another one coming in for support. A decent third behind As De Mee here, and that’s the kind of run which will get support for this race, but his overall form might just suggest he’ll come up short here. I’d much prefer his chances though to his stablemate.

I’m not convinced by anything coming out of the Tizzard or Twiston-Davies yards just now, so that’s enough for me to be hesitant with regards to Third Intention, Quite By Chance, Ultragold, or Ballykan. Of those 4, I could probably make a case for Ballykan though, as he’s caught the eye in his last 2 starts, and did look one to keep on side of last autumn. Showed a bit of temperament last summer, and those these quirky types can quickly chuck it round here, the 33’s does look reasonable.

Donald McCain looks to have a couple of interesting outsiders here in the shape of Knock House, and Katachenko. Knock House appeals for all the reasons mentioned by Autumnal, while I think that Katachenko is just the type to thrive at these spring festivals, as could be seen with his win here last season. Both have a real chance to my eye, and both are fairly priced at 25’s and 40’s.

Willie Mullins has mentioned a small team again for Aintree this year, and with Alelchi Inois, National Bound, then Ballycasey is his only potential runner here. I like Ballycasey a lot, and he’s looked as good as ever this year. Top weight wouldn’t put me off him at all, I think he’s good enough to handle it, I’d just be inclined to think he’s far from certain to travel. A decent horse, and I’ll take note if he does make the trip, but that’s surely only likely if there are any mishaps at Fairyhouse today.

The pick of the other Irish Challengers looks to be Mr Diablo. He has plenty of runs in the book which would bring him into this, and I thought he had the look of a real “dark horse” at 33’s during the week. No surprise at all to see the money coming for him now, and he’s now into 25’s. I think he’s ideal for this, and can see continued support throughout the week. I could also see a bit of support over the next few days for Katnap. He’s a horse who’s been on my radar for a couple of years now, and he ran much better last time than the 4th place would suggest. I am sorely tempted by him, not least by the fact that he is 40-1, and that is way too big for him. Surprised to see an entry for Home Farm here, and despite what appears to be some sort of rejuvenation between the flags, I can’t quite get it out of my head that he’s looked seriously regressive the last couple of years. I’d maintain that he is an interesting entry, but not quite interesting enough to part with any cash, even allowing for a stable switch having worked the trick for him, it would still be some amount of improvement required to take a hand here. Portrait King also gets an entry, but things will surely be happening too quickly for him here, should he get in.

Lucinda Russell will be in the news this week, thanks to One For Arthur, but don’t write off Imjoeking here. She’s done well here with her runners here over the years, and he had a welcome return to form last time. Maybe pushing it for win purposes, but that win last time wasn’t it his only good run this year, and he’s definitely not a 66-1 no-hoper.

Straidnahanna has already been given a good word by myself and Greenasgrass, and if in the mood, he could just surprise. I can see him blazing a trail in the front rank, and with this shorter trip, at 40-1, I can see supporters getting a proper run for their money. His run at Catterick in January was very impressive, and it’s worth a look. In another year, I could see him being my #1 pick, and I really do feel he’s massively overpriced.

Gas Line Boy is another who could make a bold bid from the front, and his overall form this season is pretty decent, and as seen at Kelso, for a horse who is seen a stayer, this trip holds no fears either. All ground seems to come alike to him, but he can clout the odd fence, and got no further than the first in the 2015 National. A quick look through his runs over the last year and a half though shows he’s not one to write off, and you can get 40’s.

I had Viva Steve down as a National horse in his Novice season, and though not for me here, I’ll be keeping an eye on him with next year in mind. I hope I’m not a year too late.

I’m struggling to make a case for Solar Impulse, who hasn’t improved much this year after leaving the champion trainer, while those at the bottom are hard to recommend, though I suppose Gowanauthat looks to have been kept fresh for this, after a fine autumn, and looks on the big side at 66’s.

That’ll do for now I think.

I’m very very keen on both Clarcam, and Bright New Dawn, at 25’s and 40’s, while I’ll add a third, and it’ll probably be Katnap, though his compatriot, Mr Diablo is equally appealing, just ahead of Vintage Vinnie. I’ll have a look at 6 place concessions on the day too for mine if the prices have held.

Clarcam 25’s ew
Bright New Dawn 40’s ew.

GL

Good luck Lemons, with Mr Diablo…….still torn between him and Katnap. I might sacrifice the odds, and wait for final decs, and still tempted by that 33’s Vintage Vinnie

I’d say touch and go Nath. Same connections entered Captain Conan last year, but had already pulled him by this stage, so at least you know they’re seriously considering it. The expected defection of Ballycasey will see him carry even more weight though, so even though he’s good enough in my book to carry it, they might not fancy it.

Maybe one for waiting till he’s declared, even if it means sacrificing a few points.

Perfect Nathan………once mine are out of the picture, if 007 is thereabouts, I’ll be shouting him on

Thanks Jac

2 solid choices there, and hard to split them, best of luck.

Good luck with him Botchy, and have topped up the 6 places myself