Scottish National 2017

It will be Henri Parry Morgan for me too, and I think that 33-1 is a good price for the horse. I just worry a little about his jumping but at that price he will do in what looks like a very open race

Andrew Lynch back on Fine Rightly for the first time in a while.Was looking at the big prices on the exchanges all week but was convinced he would not run. Had an E/W bet at 33’s earlier on and hoping for some 50’s when the market opens up.

This is looking tougher every time I look at the race.

Presently I am focusing on the lower weights as not many winners of this have lumped loads of weight which is a mute point but hey ho we all have to start somewhere.

I have backed COGRY and PORTRAIT KING at 33/1 SUGAR BARON 20/1 and GONE TOO FAR at 100/1 purely and simply because of the weights they are carrying. I see Paddy Power are going six places and I have backed all except Gone Too far with PP.

Good Luck Everyone

raymo61 wrote:

I see Paddy Power are going six places and I have backed all except Gone Too far with PP.

Good Luck Everyone

Thanks for that Raymo, could not resist the 6 places offer E/W last night

Just checked now and they are back to 4 places

Thanks again

Quelle Farce wrote:

Loathe to rule out Seldom Inn (would be nailed on if at Kelso)

I fear that jumping fences in a big field will scare the cr*p out of him! Happy to be proved wrong though.

Jim Beaumont has an interest in another horse in the race and I wouldn’t be surprised if Portrait King scrapes into a place at a fancy price.

Really tough year.

MISSED APPROACH – Ran really well in a non-vintage National Hunt Chase but the handicapper has taken it literally, needs a career-best.

VIVALDI COLLONGES – The yak who’ll probably carry my money. Various excuses this season (right-handed not suiting, not fit, scoped dirty) and has a blinding record at Ayr. Presumably this was the plan as soon as he passed the post in the novices’ handicap at the meeting last year, but wellbeing has to be taken on trust now.

FINE RIGHTLY – A tad ungenuine, usually seen in small fields and handicapped to the hilt.

KRUZHLININ – Totally exposed.

VICENTE – The obvious one, could easily repeat last year’s win from a similar mark. Does have to get over a fall quickly and hasn’t totally convinced this season, though.

ARPEGE D’ALENE – Has been publicly plotted at this by Nicholls and brings a similar profile as Vicente did last year. Did look a tad quirky and paceless in the 4 Miler but hard to rule him out.

SELDOM INN – Most recent Kelso win not to be taken literally, as proven on latest start. Tough task.

BATTLE OF SHILOH – Would be interesting if there was some excuse for his most recent run (haven’t heard any), previously a nice progressive staying chaser

SOUTHFIELD ROYALE – Well-handicapped and buzzing again before falling in the Kim Muir (cruncher), needs to prove confidence isn’t dented but has to be bang there if he wings the first few. As always with Mulholland, the morning market should tell you what to expect.

DANCING SHADOW – Worked a miracle to come from behind in a lesser event at Musselburgh but that form hasn’t worked out. At least stays and might be an EW option.

PREMIER BOND – Obvious claims on staying-on Kim Muir third but that is hardly a standout piece of form. Nice horse and might well win but looks short enough right now.

STRAIDNAHANNA – Another proven stayer but often found out at this level

SHOTGUN PADDY – Usually falls apart at this time of year and has had another hard season in all the slogs, likely to recoil

BENBENS – Asking a lot to match 3rd of two years ago from a similar mark at his age.

LESSONS IN MILAN – Absolute scoundrel, not to be trusted at all. Even when perked up by first time headgear and enjoying the run of the race, he couldn’t win at Newbury. Avoid.

AL CO – Former winner, hard to predict but has a chance if in the mood. Another in-running one perhaps – you’ll know what’s up after half a circuit.

ANOTHER HERO – Weak finisher, stamina doubts but has been running well in competitive races and his yard is flying. Not for me but will probably be backed.

HENRI PARRY MORGAN – Regressive, short on confidence. How could you trust him?

VINTAGE CLOUDS – Always looked likely to enjoy this sort of test and not as ground-dependent as he’s made out to be (by Cloudings out of a Germany mare, has good ground form). Only a soft fall at Cheltenham and one of the leading chances if his confidence isn’t shaken. GN Trial form looks rock solid.

SUGAR BARON – Dour stayer but can he hold his position well enough to make it count?

BLAKEMOUNT – Totally exposed.

FIREBIRD FLYER – Gone at the game.

DAWSON CITY – Rarely one for win purposes but certainly one who’ll keep grinding away and might chug on into a place from a low weight

TRUSTAN TIMES – Tipped by Paul Kealy but asking a lot to repeat his previous placing in the race at such an advanced age. Managed a win over hurdles and yard going well but is fragile and has to be taken on trust that he’ll cope with two races in (for him) quick succession.

PORTRAIT KING – Excelled himself in the Topham but has had so many goes in this sort of race without threatening, best to have a long memory and steer clear I think

COGRY – Seems to have sorted out the jumping somewhat but hasn’t managed to win weaker events at the testing tracks he likes best. Hard to fancy him around here.

ALVARADO – Impossible to write him off yet. Depends whether he’s in the mood but took to the course surprisingly well last year racing more prominently than usual before keeping on to get a place. In-running job again perhaps.

GONE TOO FAR – Gone at the game.

FATHER EDWARD – LOL

MAN WITH VAN – Probably won’t deliver. Has had plenty of chances and usually comes up short.

So it’s Vivaldi Collonges and Vintage Star for me, possibly others to follow if they look like they’re buzzing in-running. Good luck!

moehat wrote:

I know it was before One for Arthur was tongue tied, but See you at midnight slaughtered him at Kelso.

In fairness to my chap, he was a different animal at that point and connections had no idea how he should be run as a hold up horse worked into the race.

Plus that was only over 3m and that’s just not his trip.

3m is a sprint for him almost

Added a small E/W on Firebird Flyer @ 100/1 6 places BOG

Looks totally out of form this year, but has eventually slipped down to his mark which saw him second in the Welsh National