Galway Plate 2017

Been patiently waiting for the entries the last couple of weeks for this, and hoping that a few of my early shortlist wouldn’t be in there, but bar Modem, they’re all there, and it’s a bloody minefield.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/183/galway/2017-08-02/681587

Practically impossible to take a strong view, it’s an incredibly strong entry, but I might as well give it a look.

1.Ballycasey – Standing dish in these type of races, and was a gallant second in this last year. He hasn’t quite scaled the heights expected of him early in his career, but he’s been decent nonetheless. He hasn’t done much wrong since this race last year, and has already scored this term, but coming here over a stone higher will surely make life tough for him, not that I don’t expect him to run his race. 16’s

2.Alelchi Inois – Always been a difficult horse to assess for me, but no doubting the ability is there, and like his stablemate Ballycasey, he went very close in this last year. He’s kept the best of company since then, just coming up to scratch, and also took in races at Cheltenham & Aintree, where where he was a bit more of a disappointment. Unlike Ballycasey though, he’ll only come here 4lbs higher than last year, and gun to my head, I’d say this is his trip. If anyone seen his “run” at Killarney last week, then I’m sure they’d agree that it was no more than a stroll, and they were quite clearly blowing the cobwebs away. It would be no surprise to me if this was the plan since last year, and 33’s is simply massive.

3.Lord Scoundrel – Reigning champ, who hasn’t done that much since, but crucially, his revised mark afterwards, wasn’t too much of a hindrance in The Kerry National, where he was bang in contention before taking a spill 2 out. Didn’t disgrace himself in graded company after that, and bar a rather lacklustre display at Fairyhouse, I could see him hitting the frame again. Only 14’s though, and I think you might get that nearer the time.

4.Road To Riches – His career hasn’t really taken off since his excellent third to Coneygree at Cheltenham 2 years ago, but as a result, he has been given a chance by the handicapper. Pulled up injured in this last year, when a very warm favourite, and I just get the suspicion that that race at Cheltenham 2 years back has really knocked the stuffing out of him. If that’s not the case, and he’s back to his best, then he’s weighted to romp this, and regardless of where he’s at, the 16’s about him just now, will surely have long gone. I’ll take a chance, and swerve him.

5.Sandymount Duke – On the face of it, an early season campaign, which resulted in 3 wins on the bounce, hardly looks the brightest idea, considering that this race has always been the plan, and that his lenient mark will be long gone. However, and it’s a big however, I think his future is in Graded Chases, and this could be his last foray in handicap company for some time. Yes, he’s had a hefty rise, but I’ve seen horses hit harder for what he’s achieved, connections aren’t daft, and despite him looking vulnerable for win purposes, certainly to a “lurker”, I’ll have a few quid each way at the 14’s.

6.Rock The World – Stablemate of Sandymount, and a long standing favourite of mine, who I managed not to bet in The Grand Annual. Since bought by JP, and I’m sure there’s a very definite plan for him. Not entirely convinced this is his trip, and he was a bit flat last week, and also failed to sparkle here last year in The Hurdle. Obvious chance though if good to go, but I’ll take a chance and avoid him again, what could possibly go wrong? 16’s

7.Devils Bride – Long term fancy of mine for this, and I reckon they’ve been mucking about with him, since his fine effort in this last year. Running a huge race, when tipping up at Punchestown in the spring. Ran a nice race over too short a trip last week at Killarney, and obviously a major player here, off of only 3lbs higher. 16’s is fair.

8.Alcala – Impressive winner of The Summer Plate at Market Rasen on Saturday, and not weighted out of it here either. That was a competitive enough race on Saturday, but this will be something different altogether. I suppose a lot will depend on how much that win has taken out of him, but he’s relatively unexposed, but I’m not convinced he’ll go, despite it being mentioned as the plan. I can’t rule him out, but wouldn’t be in a particular rush for an early go. Potentially still improving though, but priced accordingly at 14’s.

9.Sadlers Risk – Likeable, and versatile type, who’s been mixing it, not only in Graded and Handicap company recently, but also over both fences and hurdles. Subsequently, it’s just a bit difficult to assess him properly, but his win in The Munster National 2 seasons back, probably tells you all you need to know about him here. Admittedly, he’s a few pounds higher here, but not one you’d be in a rush to write off. 33’s

10.Shaneshill – Fascinating entry, and a horse who hasn’t seen a fence for some time. Hurdles all the way for him recently, and he’s been a shade disappointing, in fact on occasions, he’s been very disappointing, but his 2nd to Blaklion in last years RSA, the last time he seen a fence, gives him a squeak, as I think Blaklion was trained for Aintree all last year, and he ran a blinder. I’m happy with that approach, and single piece of form, but so are the books, and he’s as low as 8’s, which I wouldn’t be as happy about.

11.A Toi Phil – Big fan of this horse, and after a gutsy win in the big handicap at Leapordstown in January, he’s been mixing it in graded company, winning a Grade 2 in the process. I think he’s ahead of his mark, and there’ll be more to come this year. I just have the suspicion that they might target him for Aintree this time around, in which case he wouldn’t want to be winning this, but if they’re serious here, then 20’s is smashing.

12.Henryville – Very disappointing on Saturday at Market Rasen, and I expected more. You could argue that this has clearly been the plan all along for him, and that will have blown the cobwebs away (he did look threatening at one stage), and you could also point to other successful foray across The Irish Sea by the trainer, but he looks high enough in the weights for me, and if he lands it, I’ll just have to take it on the chin. 25’s

13.Balko De Flos – I’m just a little bit surprised to see this boy at the head of the market. Nice enough sort, and no doubt we ain’t seen the best of him yet, but questionable if he deserves to be as short as 10’s. Could easily prove me wrong, but happy to be against him at price.

14.Townshend – Represents the WPM/Ricci partnership, and he’s had a great start over the larger obstacles, including taking care of the very decent Pergrine Run last time. Didn’t look done for when falling at Punchestown, and he looks a likely sort here, with the only potential negative being the trip. 14’s

15.Arbe De Vrie – Another WPM/Ricci candidate, and though his overall form just finds him needing more, it’d by no means out of the question that he can, and his second to Woodlands Opera wasn’t bad at all. I do think there’s a bit of guesswork involved with him, but he has definite potential, and he’s as low as 12’s which might just tell a story. Very dangerous to dismiss this one.

16.Haymount – I was happy, initially, to put a line through him, and I was of the opinion that he needed further than this, but a quick look back to Punchestown in November, shows him winning a nice race over 2 and a half miles, with a decent bunch behind him off of levels. They’ve got him here on a nice mark, and he looks a proper dark horse, albeit I thought he’s be bigger than 16’s

17.Minella Foru – Another old favourite of mine, not least off the back of his win in The 2015 Paddy Power. Hardly seen since though, and despite not having had a proper chance to assess his current level. after a couple of spins over hurdles, and an early exit at Fairyhouse, his last run in The Grimes Hurdle was too bad to be true. I’m not convinced it was a “pipe opener” for him, and despite being a long term fancy of mine for this, I’d consider him risky. Probably not an attractive price either as low as 14’s, but if back to his best, and that’s a big “if”, then he is very well handicapped.

18.Three Kingdoms – Another horse I was going to put a quick line through, and I couldn’t see him bettering his 10th in this last year, but he is here fresh from a win on the level, and a 6lb swing this time around, could see him pushing for a place. Trainer hasn’t had the best of years, but always very risky to write off his charges here. 20’s

19.Attribution – Going the right way, and took care of recent winner Ballyoisin the other day, and if not coming here too quick off the back of that, then he’s one to give a second look too. Not hit too hard for that win either. 20’s

20.Ballyboley – Always had a soft spot for this horse, and he does have a decent prize in him, but I think, on what he’s achieved so far, his big win won’t be here. 20’s available, but interestingly, as low as 12’s with Hills.

21.Slowmotion – Has had a fantastic start over the larger obstacles, and absolutely nothing wrong with his second behind Definite Ruby last time. A few of his runs last year read ok to me, and he has the look of a “plot” horse to me. 16’s probably doesn’t reflect his chances, and I’d make him shortlist material.

22.Marinero – Considered good enough to take in The RSA, but the fences got in the way early, and that was that. He disappointed next time at Aintree, but it’s not that long ago that he ran very well behind Thistlecrack, and he could have a few pounds up his cuff. Been mucking about over hurdles this summer, and met a few traffic problems when taking the scenic route in Fridays Midlands National, a race in which he ran very well. Very interesting at 33’s

23.Shanpallas – Sky looked the limit for him when landing The Munster National a few years back, and ultimately snapped up by JP. He’s been a bit “hit and miss” since then though, and I get the impression they’re not quite sure what to do with him. Ran well in this 2 years ago though, finishing just out the frame after meeting serious traffic problems, and that was enough for me to put a few bob on him for this last year. Unfortunately though, he wasn’t declared, and though I really still like him, and give him a live chance here, he’ll have other options at The Festival, and is very risky before the final decs. One to consider wherever he runs next week, as they look to have been getting him ready for something, as can be seen with the quote of 12’s from Paddy Power.

24.Vintage Vinnie – The old favourites just keep on coming, and this boy ticks a lot of boxes for me. Trust me, they’ve never had him better, and he was a joy to watch at Aintree and Uttoxeter lately. They really seem to have worked him out, this is his time of year, and trainer no stranger to winning prizes across here. There’s just the thought that he’s too high in the weights, and despite the manner of his win at Aintree, he really was given a very very harsh rise by the handicapper. Given a chance here though, and he’ll give you a proper run for your money off of 140, and he’s simply too big at 25’s.

25.Dean’s Road – Went into my notebook after his last win, albeit not with a prize like this in mind. Not out of the question that he can take a hand here, certainly not hammered for that win, but as much as his presence here causes me a few headaches, the percentage call is to look elsewhere…….I hope. 20’s

26.Heron Heights – I like this horse, not least off the back of a couple of wins last winter. Impossible to gauge his current wellbeing last time when he was brought down at the first, but I think he’s got a chance off running a decent race here, before ultimately just coming up short. I think he’ll make the winners enclosure this winter, and he’s a horse I have in mind more for something like The Munster National. 25’s

27.Bentelimar – Not the first one to jump off the page by any means, but has already won this season, taking care of Discosimo, and his run behind Peregrine Run off of levels last time was very respectable. Tipped up at the last in The Leapordstown Handicap in January, but ran a sound race, which proved his suitability for something like this. 16’s

28.Shadow Catcher – Seems to have been around forever, and was a very nice 6th in this last year off of a similar mark, but was tailed off the other day, and has major questions to ask now after that. 40’s

29.On Fiddlers Green – Proper summer horse, and he was a very nice winner for me last month, with Davy Russell on board. Likely to still be ahead of the handicapper, and this has surely been the long term plan, he’s certainly been a long term fancy of mine for this. Impossible to be too negative about, and deserves his place at the head of the market, as low as 8’s

30.Sambremont – WPM inmate who’s ultimately been disappointing, and hard to make a case for at present. 33’s

31.The Crafty Butcher – Another WPM runner, and this boy has been a late developer. Was a bit of a talking horse last year, before ultimately disappointing on the whole. May be best to judge him on his second to Noble Endeavour at Leapordstown in December, and looks sure to have his supporters, though he does come with risks, based on his last few spins. 16’s

32.Champagne Harmony – I follow the trainer, and he is in fine form, but although a few nice runs in him, this is surely a step too far. 33’s

33.Tulsa Jack – Unpredictable performer, who failed to justify serious market support in The Midlands National on Friday, and this is surely too sharp for him. 33’s

34.Katnap – He did me a decent turn at a price in The Topham, and he only found the winner too good. I really, really like this horse, and though we’re now in the realms of “struggling to get in”, I think he’s worth considering for other prizes in the coming season. I think if he scrapes in, then he’s major player, and he could easily afford to win this, and still be attractive for The Grand National, which I think he’d be ideal for. One to keep in mind for not only here, but future prizes as. On the up for sure. 16’s seems about right.

35.Potters Point – Another of the army of Giggs entries, and I think he might just struggle to get in here. Should he make it, I don’t think he’d disgrace himself, but ultimately, I think he’s one for the future. 25’s

36.Aranhill Chief – Quite simply one of my favourite horses in training, and the summer months is the time to catch him. I’ve caught him 3 summers in a row at big prices, and though he hasn’t got his head in front, he’s bagged me 2 decent each way pots so far this summer. Love him to bits, and part of me wants him to miss this, as it might just be beyond him, and I’d like to see him take in another race at The Festival, and from a yard in form, he’s worth keeping on side. 33’s

37.Art of Payroll – Another entry from the Harry Fry yard, and having won last time out, he’s high enough in the betting. He always flattered to deceive when with Sandra Hughes, but it was nice to see him get one last win for her. What Harry Fry has inherited though, quite simply, is a horse who still has time on his side to get those big pots he always threatened to, and he’ll surely get him in the winners enclosure again, before the seasons out. 14’s

38.Hash Brown – Not a superstar of JP’s by any stretch, but normally runs a solid race. Just can’t see him being a factor here though. 33’s

39.Baily Moon – Another one to give me nice win, when he scored at Limerick a fortnight ago. Has to step up on his disappointing performance though in The Midlands National, where he took a few quid of mine with him, but to be fair to him, he was always on the back foot, after clouting the first. He’s still a youngster, and I’m very happy with the way they’re bringing him along. One maybe for another race at The Festival, rather than here. 33’s

40.Lake Takapuna – Not many miles on the clock, but seems hard to be too enthusiastic about in this company, at this stage of his career. I’d say he’s underpriced at 25’s

That’s the Top 40 then, and surely the rest have little hope of making it, though one of them Net D’Ecosse on 41, is a decent sort, and I’d have loved to have seen him here.

I seriously considered swerving this tonight, as it is a minefield of a race this year for an Ante-Post punt, but I’ve had an early go on a couple of them.

Of those I haven’t sided with, well it’s unusual for me to side with a fav, but On Fiddlers Green is rock solid, while Slowmotion is one to get on early, he looks a gamble waiting to happen, and has me on the verge of adding him, but 2 is enough at this stage. There’s a massive Giggs contingent as usual, and I’m struggling to split A Toi Phil, Devils Bride, Lord Scoundrel, and Marinero. If pushed, then Marinero is a ridiculous price at 33’s. Of the rest, there’s so many favourites of mine in there, that it’s so easy for the heart to rule the head, but I’d give a serious nod to Vintage Vinnie, who’ll give you some fun at 25’s, while Katnap & Aranhill Chief look worth considering for other races at The Festival, should they, as expected, miss the cut here.

In the end, went for this pair.

Sandymount Duke 14’s ew. I just think he’s a horse with a future completely away from handicaps, and although on the face of it, you could say they’ve blown his mark for this, they surely know what they’re doing, and he looks banker place material to me.

Alelchi Inois 33’s ew – I never ever thought he’d have my money on him here, he wasn’t on that original shortlist, but he’s just fantastic value at the 33’s. Yes, he could take in other races here, but he’s prepping for something, and he looks weighted to make the frame at the very least, should this be the plan, and at that 33’s, I’m willing to take a chance. He followed up his fine run in this, with a win at The Festival a few days later, and I really think they’ll be trying with him whichever race he takes in. Could end up with egg on my face, if he heads elsewhere, but this has to be a serious target for him, and I’d kick myself if I miss the 33’s. If he’s missing from the final line up, I’m not short of other options lol

GL