2017 Champion Hurdle

Am already on The New One at a big price, impressed me with an attacking ride in the International but may need a greater test of stamina, front running tactics/strong pace (and/or Richard Johnson) to produce his very best these days… Unfortunatley Sam Twister rides and can see it being good, fast going.

When nobody’s form impresses as being good enough to win an average renewal it’s likely to go to an improver. Yanworth and Petit Mouchoir probably have the best form but now seem more exposed than others and may be vulnerable. Yanworth’s jumping has been criticised, it’s not exactly fluent but not as bad as some make out. Ptit Mouchoir has done nothing wrong, but the Irish form is not as good as previous years. Now his jumping is fluent, at least it is when in front. Recent improvement has also come with a change of tactics… Is that significant? I hope The New One will take him on; if not PM might get the run of the race. Buveur D’Air is less exposed so could yet improve significantly. People are taking too much notice of the trainer’s opinions of his horses going requirements; Buveur D’Air’s form is imo equally as good on a goodish surfce. However, hardly looks value at current prices considering what he’s actually done. Brain Power still has a bit to find to even reach the standard of his stable companion, but (possibly importantly) was progressing at a rate of knots when last seen in December. Form has worked out and although still only “handicap form” there’s been plenty of time to make another big step forward. Nothing physically wrong since, apparently just Henderson keeping away from very soft ground. Trainer seems to believe he’s just as good as Buveur D’Air and latter is much shorter in the market. Now trainer’s third string, My Tent Or Yours may do better on goodish ground, but it’s more the way he now settles better strangely puts me off. Not the same enthusiasm, not that he was ever easy to win with. Probability is he’s on the downgrade. Although if place only odds are similar to what you’d get back in the each way market might be worth playing. One that would be a possible rank outsider to be interested in (if times indicate it’s very fast) is Yanworth’s stable companion Sceau Royal. Started the season well but hasn’t gone on when going turned. Possible “back to lay” material because often travels well and finds little. Chitibello is a similar type, travelled possily best when the two met at Wincanton, only for them both to be outstayed. If unable to beat the Champion around a sharp track it’s highly unlikely Cheltenham will show a reversal… Although think I heard of a wind op since? Vroum Vroum Mag would’ve been interesting had she not struggled last time. Although fact Limini was not supplemented is probably positive to how she’s going at home. Like many-a-Mullins market support will show her chance. Way she won at Punchestown seems to suggest VVM equally effective at 2m. Stable-mate Footpad will be ridden to take advantage if others either go off too fast and/or challenge sooner than ideal, ie picking them up late. On proximity to Petit Mouchoir her price may look tempting, but I wouldn’t play unless (in running) they’ve gone off far too quick. David’s father Martin Pipe won this with novice Make A Stand, but he was far more street-wise than the fragile, lightly raced Moon Racer. Connections probably going here because far from certain he’ll be sound next year. In truth, although has undoubted potential may have a bit too much to find in one go.

I’ve backed Brain Power @ 15/2. Wanted to leave it until the day but Dave Yates has tipped him up on RUK so thought better to get on now.

rocky91 wrote:

Moon racer confirmed to go for this race

No surprise really to see Moon Racer here. The opposition is limited in strength. The ground looks like being decent, so Yanworth and Buveur D’air won’t be suited by that and it’s open enough.

I know people who got 33/1 nrnb on Moon Racer but I can’t see it myself. He still needs a good bit more than he has ever done before and it will be fast and furious in comparison to Novice company. No bumper horse has won this but, as the owner said, this may be the horse’s best chance with age catching up.

BigG wrote:

Ginger, Ch’tibello did have a wind op. They thought he had a breathing problem at the end of
his last race in the Kingwell at Wincanton. He looked like he was going to win that one but
was pegged back on the run in by Yanworth. As I mentioned a bit back on this thread, if the op
brings about improvement, having finished within 1 length to Yanworth, he’s not without an e/w
chance. I took him at 50s and 40s, he’s still worth a punt at 33s I think.

True Big G, some horses that don’t finish their races off are improved by an operation. Overall in Chitibello’s case I see a horse who finds a fair amount in races that test speed. ie Could be wrong, but his particular so called “weak finisher” is probably more about stamina requirements rather than wind problems and the trainer’s choice of venues (to this point) seem to go some way in confirming that.

Although only beaten 1 length by Yanworth it could be described as a 5 lengths/5 lbs beating (recieved 4 lbs from winner). Beaten 5 1/2 lengths by the same horse at Kempton, seems to suggest he’s now exposed, so can understand connections trying the op…

However, value is all that matters. As I say, it is only a “probability” of stamina being the issue. It is possible a wind op could make the difference of 7 lbs and therefore in an open race I think you’ve got a good bet @ 50/1. I may well join you if that’s available on the day.

LostSoldier3 wrote:

For what it’s worth (if anything), the owner of Ch’tibello Ian Marmion publicly offered up £2500 e/w to Coral’s James Knight via Twitter. Marmion confirmed the bet was laid. I believe 40/1 was the price at the time.

Thanks for that LS, it at least shows they have some confidence (mislaid or otherwise)
in him. I might have beat the odds he got, but I’m not in the same league when it comes
to the stake….unfortunately.

charlie87 wrote:

I don’t subscribe to this ‘brave decision’ nonsense and think the 9/1 on Moon Racer is one of the worst prices I can remember for a long long time. I hope he gets completely outclassed in an embarrassing fashion and yes, for the avoidance of doubt, I am talking out of my pocket.

If I was a bookie I would do a ridiculous Moon Racer customer offer. Something like 50/1 on moon racer up to £10 or something.

50’s would be great Charlie

Not that i’m confident on MR winning the Champion but i think he must have a chance for them to run here, that’s unless he had no chance in the Supreme.

The way it looks is that The owner wanted to run and the trainer wanted to run in the Supreme. I’m sure Mr.Pipe SNR would of had some words of wisdom if it was such a hard decision to make.

Some rumours going around that MR did a bit of work a few weeks back that prompted this possible change of plan. All heresay mind you

Probably my best memory of Cheltenham. I was there that week and backed him as well.Got my cryptic head on today

botchy1 wrote:

Probably my best memory of Cheltenham. I was there that week and backed him as well.Got my cryptic head on today

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Thanks for posting that; Ruling was one of my favs, always seemed to get so far behind, then come with a rattle; always too late!!

VVM goes Mares