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Taken me a while to pick out what i like in the race, have settled on two for now
Aqua dude at 25/1 e/w
Aso 20/1 e/wJust checked and Billies refunded my bets on him about an hour ago. Hopefully industry wide but doubt it.
Taken me a while to pick out what i like in the race, have settled on two for now
Aqua dude at 25/1 e/w
Aso 20/1 e/wWere he to repeat his Ryanair run you would think he’d go close, although different course for the BV mind.
Edited to add: Talking about Aso
Jamie Moore is good, but Noel Fehily is better. Kerry Lee is good but am a great fan of Harry Fry. He’s also in great form at the moment. Kylemore Lough already looks well handicapped on his 2 3/4 lengths Cheltenham 5th to Frodon in the Caspian caviar, off a 2 lbs higher mark than here. Usually a good jumper and without uncharesteristic late errors that day imo would’ve won. Can improve on even that form under the new team. I know he’s favourite, but can see Kylemore Lough starting a lot shorter than 7/1.
Value Is EverythingTotally gutted that Go Conquer wasn’t confirmed here. I was confident of a big run but I am still hopeful for my Gold Present bet.
I will add one more, but the way this week has went I will wait till Friday now.
I like Aso @ 20s EW. If Venetia hits form over the next few days, the price will most likely tumble.
Jamie Moore is good, but Noel Fehily is better. Kerry Lee is good but am a great fan of Harry Fry. He’s also in great form at the moment. Kylemore Lough already looks well handicapped on his 2 3/4 lengths Cheltenham 5th to Frodon in the Caspian caviar, off a 2 lbs higher mark than here. Usually a good jumper and without uncharesteristic late errors that day imo would’ve won. Can improve on even that form under the new team. I know he’s favourite, but can see Kylemore Lough starting a lot shorter than 7/1.
Personally I can’t understand the Kylemore Lough smash at all. Moore to Fehily is an upgrade but Lee to Fry is a sideways move – can you think of any horse that has left Kerry Lee and been improved by another yard? Lee herself has upgraded horses from good stables – her father, de Bromhead, Nicholls, Pipe etc. In contrast, Fry himself has suffered a few embarrassments with his former charges improving for other yards in the early part of this season.
Last year’s Caspian Caviar was quite a poor renewal with a lack of horses who were well in advance of their marks. Frodon’s allowance carried him home, 2nd Aso is a bit of a fraud (being close-up in a fruity Ryanair hardly franking the form), 3rd Village Vic is/was handicapped to the hilt and fourth Quite By Chance was perhaps the moral winner after a poorly-judged ride.
Kylemore Lough has always been a bit of a fraud himself. He had an excellent novice season, but made up for his lack of championship ability by jumping much better than the average novice and wholeheartedly pothunting on soft ground. He was overtaken by the masses a season later when his early advantages fizzled away. Lee got the absolute maximum out of this horse and it’s a shocking betrayal for the owner to take the horse away – up there with the time Martin Keighley got all ‘diva’ about Champion Court and jocked off Alain Cawley.
IMO there are at least six horses in this race with better chances of winning than Kylemore Lough. Also personally hoping he is well beaten from a moral justice point of view.
Personally I can’t understand the Kylemore Lough smash at all. Moore to Fehily is an upgrade but Lee to Fry is a sideways move – can you think of any horse that has left Kerry Lee and been improved by another yard? Lee herself has upgraded horses from good stables – her father, de Bromhead, Nicholls, Pipe etc. In contrast, Fry himself has suffered a few embarrassments with his former charges improving for other yards in the early part of this season.
Can you name the horses, LS3?
Particularly the “few embarrassments”.Value Is EverythingI didn’t bet on Cloudy but I am a bit miffed as I would have gone in with a proper bet after final decs being this is my horse for the season.
I have now taken a bit of the 20/1 on offer about Aso as it looks likely he’ll run and I can’t believe you’ll see that price after we know the final field.
Must say am very surprised at your analysis of Kylemore Lough, LS3. To a certain degree I share your disapproval of the horse moving from Lee to Fry, when he’d won a Grade 1 for Kerry. But do think you’ve gone a bit too far. Imo Every horse deserves a fair crack at every race. Wonder whether you’re wishing Kylemore Lough well beaten has led to you assessing the horse badly, not wanting to believe it has a good chance of winning. Whatever we may think of the moral issue of moving stables it is essential for punters to keep a cool head when assessing chance… And that includes if a horse is likely to improve because of that move and/or potential the horse would’ve had with or without the move. You’ve taken the worst possible view of the Caspian Caviar form.
It’s true that Kylemore Lough’s Irish Grade 1 Novice Chase victory flatters him, in that he is not (or not yet) of genuine Grade 1 winning class (at least away from novice company). But that in itself is more than allowed for in his mark of 154. Granted, beating Outlander a length isn’t as good as it now looks; that one’s improved a lot more than Kylemore Lough since. Not that KL hasn’t improved. Usually a bold jumping prominent runner; gave Ascot specialist Royal Regatta (levels) too much rope in the Grade 2 Stella Artois on reappearance. Not quite getting there and beaten just a head. Then uncharacteristic mistakes 3 out and at the last counting against him in the Caspian Caviar. Finishing an unlucky 5th, only beaten 2¾ lengths. Decent form even if not allowing for those errors. imo Could’ve won his first two starts of last season given better luck and/or rides. Forget his other two starts in the Cotswold Chase over 3m1f and too firm in the Melling.
Can’t understand you not rating the Caspian Caviar form. There were several progressive types in the field.
If the Caspian Caviar was “quite a poor renewal”, were all three big 2m4f Cheltenham handicaps before the Festival last season poor renewals? If not then how come Village Vic was placed 3rd off a 3 lbs higher mark (158) than his 2nd in the Betvictor (155)? And then after the Caspian runner-up in the big January 1st 2m4f Cheltenham handicap off the same 158? Village Vic is a Cheltenham specialist. Take out the Aintree run and you’re left with his Cheltenham starts all in those big Cheltenham handicaps bar the Ryanair which reads: Off 136 won, 144 won, Ryanair outclassed, 155 second, 158 (Caspian) third, 158 second. Sounds pretty progressive to me…
And how is Aso’s form not progressive? Also placed in the Betvictor on his previous race off 144. Then after the Caspian 1½ lengths second he was victorious on his next start off effectively 3 lbs higher (145 and same rider Deutsch now with a 2 lbs fewer claim). By 4 lengths in the big 2m4f handicap on the Welsh Grand National card, with 10+ lengths back to the field. Later, Aso 3 ½ lengths 4th off effectively a 10 lb higher mark (152 + Deutsch’s 2) than the Caspian Caviar in the Betbright. Distances and marks tell you that had the Caspian Caviar second run off that same Cheltenham mark he’d have won at Kempton. So whether you think he’s flattered when 7 ½ lengths third to Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair (Deutsch this time unable to claim at all) – Aso was improving. Although Aso imo probably a little flattered by that Group 1, but given a progressive profile I think it’s worth giving him credit for another step forward.
Winner of the Caspian Caviar off a mark of 149 was Frodon; who also came from the Betvictor. Going in to that race unbeaten over fences and started 6/1 second fav. Previously jumping generally well in three novice chases. You say he only won because of the allowance. Younger horses don’t get allowances in handicaps, LS3. Or rather, weights carried and distances in any race are completely taken in to account whether those weights were carried by horses of the same age or not. Frodon last of 10 finishers in the Betvictor, having ruined his chance jumping sloppily in the larger field. Ignore that run and he’d been very progressive. Penultimate start finishing alone in the Grade 2 Novice at Wincanton, the “Future Stars”. Having the race won as Shantou Village fell at the final fence. And what happened after the Caspian? At odds-on, probably progressed again, winning Future Champion Novices at Musselburgh by a fairly easy 9 lengths. Again at odds on for a 2 lengths victory in the Grade 2 Pendil. An 8 lengths 2nd to Might Bite (levels), giving the 3rd Label Des Obeaux (who’d himself won the 3m novice handicap off 148 at Ayr on Scottish National day) 6 lbs and beating him ½ length – probably another small step up from Frodon.
Caspian 4th, Quite By Chance had done well in his two previous starts. 6 lengths winner off 135, then a good second toff 143, splitting Sire De Grugy and Vaniteaux in the Swawbrook Handicap… And was racing off 147 in the Caspian Caviar – at that time very progressive.
Caspian 6th, Bouveril was progressive. Running off a 7 lb higher mark of 146 than when showing improved form on penultimate start before the Caspian Caviar. ½ length 2nd in the big novice handicap at the Cheltenham festival off 139, before distant 4th in the Grade 1 Manifesto at Aintree – outclassed.
Caspian 8th, Thomas Brown had shown improved form on reappearance to win off 137 at Aintree by a length from On Tour, with 28 back to the 3rd. Raised 5 lbs for the Caspian Caviar and made 6/1 jf.
Value Is EverythingI would certainly say that last year’s Paddy Power was quite a poor renewal (in the context of the race’s history) as well. Taquin De Seuil winning one off 156 and Frodon winning the other race from 149 shows that it wasn’t a great year. Neither horse has much business in G1 company with TDS subsequently struggling to run to 160 and Frodon plateauing in the low 150s.
In the Paddy Power especially, almost 2 out of every 3 winners typically has literal stones in hand, with many being G1 horses in a handicap. Since I started following racing, we’ve had Cyfor Malta, Shooting Light, Fondmort, Celestial Gold, Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander, Great Endeavour and Al Ferof in the Paddy Power. The last three year’s have been fairly poor (perhaps harsh on John’s Spirit).
Likewise the December Gold Cup – Fondmort, Monkerhostin, Poquelin and Unioniste were all streets ahead of their marks and capable of competing in better company. Again, we have endured a fairly poor three years of winners in this race (harsh on Village Vic arguably) but we mustn’t be shortsighted and say Frodon was anything like a good winner. He wasn’t even definitely the moral winner on the day – see Quite By Chance’s luckless passage.
Without the rose-tinted glasses of a Kylemore Lough backer, I can pick apart the Caspian Caviar form just as well as you build it up.
We’ve cut Frodon down to size, Aso is a dubious horse to use to stack up the form, Village Vic was fully exposed yet still nearly managed to win from 158, cult hero Quite By Chance was perhaps the moral winner (also fairly exposed). Looking further back the temperamental Bouvreuil is hardly a yardstick to depend upon, Buywise palpably failed to run his race, Thomas Brown was unable to dominate and never travelling and King’s Odyssey was another unlucky loser off 147. All in all, I feel you might compare last year’s Caspian Caviar was fairly moderate in the context of history.
With Kylemore Lough only able to finish in the ruck among those horses and having 5lbs in hand on a very charitable interpretation of his form, I’d rather play something with potential to be 10-15lbs ahead. Tully East, Gold Present, Foxtail Hill and a couple of others might well have those credentials. From a value perspective, I wouldn’t be sure to play Kylemore win-only if offered 9/1 or 10/1.
After a disappointing few years, I think there is every chance we’ll get back to the gold standard of Paddy Power winners this time. Cloudy Dream’s defection hurts us on that score but I think we can still be hopeful.
However, to play devil’s advocate with myself, I would say that you should hoover up the prices on Kylemore Lough right now if you really do fancy him for Saturday’s race. He is 50/1 for the King George and a giant price for the Ryanair – both could well be slashed if he wins.
I have no dog in the fight but by way of casting some light, last year’s race has so far thrown up 12 wins from 93 runs. At the top end of those: One Grade 1, One Grade 2 and two Grade 3s. From a quality viewpoint in follow-up form, you need to go back to the 2010 running to better that (Long Run was third then to Little Josh).
The 2010 race threw up 7 wins from 77 runs in the following 365 days.
And last year’s Caspian Caviar threw up 2 subsequent Grade 2 wins. You need to go back to the 2007 running to see that bettered.
I have just taken the fast disappearing 7/1 about kylemore lough.As someone who normally looks for a value ew option in this type of race,my opinion is that K L has the classiest form on offer , and by some margin.
Personally I can’t understand the Kylemore Lough smash at all. Moore to Fehily is an upgrade but Lee to Fry is a sideways move – can you think of any horse that has left Kerry Lee and been improved by another yard? Lee herself has upgraded horses from good stables – her father, de Bromhead, Nicholls, Pipe etc. In contrast, Fry himself has suffered a few embarrassments with his former charges improving for other yards in the early part of this season.
Can you name the horses, LS3?
Particularly the “few embarrassments”.
Value Is EverythingHowever, to play devil’s advocate with myself, I would say that you should hoover up the prices on Kylemore Lough right now if you really do fancy him for Saturday’s race. He is 50/1 for the King George and a giant price for the Ryanair – both could well be slashed if he wins.
Does that mean if Kylemore Lough wins the Betvictor you’ll be criticising it as a “poor renewal” unless he goes on to win the King George and Ryanair?
Even if successful in this race he’d need to improve another stone to win at Kempton.Personally, I think he’s over-priced @ 7/1 for the Betvictor; that’s 7/1 not odds-on. Of course it’s possible to poke holes in a horse at that price. It’s just that imo he’s roughly an 18% chance; fair 9/2 shot. ie I expect him to be around 4/1 come Saturday.
Value Is Everything
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