Great Yorkshire Chase 2016

Weather could be crucial in this, not just for narrowing down selections, but also for it going ahead. A race which has a terrible record for it getting abandoned.

Not as easy as that though, and it looks a bit of a minefield to be honest.

Current market leaders are Ziga Boy, Buywise, and Holywell, widely available at 8’s, though there is a bit of 9’s about for Buywise, and 10’s for Holywell. The 12’s for Ziga Boy looks the standout though.

Of those 3, I’d much prefer Ziga Boy anyway, as he won nicely enough at the track the last time, and although he didn’t beat much, the manner of his victory, suggested there should be more to come, and comes from the Alan King yard, who have a decent record in races like this, although to be fair, he’s not landed this prize yet. I’d have to have Ziga down as shortlist material, off 132, and Tom Bellamy is the only Jockey booked so far, and his 3 lb allowance will only help their chances as well.

Buywise needs no introduction to his “army of fans” on here, and though there’s clearly an engine there, I’m sure many would agree that if there’s a way to get yourself beat, he’ll find it. I couldn’t possibly bet him myself, but for a horse who has continual physical issues, which affects his jumping, there’s no denying he deserves it. I think I read somewhere, possibly Betfair, that a 6 mile race over Fixed Brush Hurdles would be ideal for him, and that doesn’t sound too wide of the mark. He will pop up one day, I’ll just have to accept it won’t be with my money on him.

My old friend Holywell, also needs no introduction, and for a horse who would have went very close in last years Gold Cup, bar for the late rain, then he looks absolutely chucked in. Stable form is a concern however, as will be the winter ground, and I’d very much prefer to wait for him on the spring ground, and at 33’s, I still very much feel as if he could be the forgotten horse in this years Gold Cup. Ground permitting of course. He’s been mentioned on here as a possible Grand National horse as well this season, and that seems a realistic target for him as well, so victory here wouldn’t help his chances in that either. I’ll swerve him for this, and hope he has his day come the spring.

The Grand National is surely the main target for Dolatulo, and like Holywell, he wouldn’t help himself by winning this, but he’s a horse I really like, and I can’t discount him here off of 146. 14’s seems fair. I suspect Double Ross might also be National Bound this year, and following a lifeless run last time, I’ll leave him alone here, and wait to see how he looks at the big spring festivals. Certainly as with Dolatulo, a win here would surely scupper his chances in the big one. He’s horse who’e been very good to me over the last couple of years, so I’ll be kicking myself should he land this.

Paul Nicholls hasn’t farmed the big Saturday prizes as in recent seasons, but in race he’s won twice, he looks to have a decent set of entries in Rocky Creek, Black Thunder, and Le Mercurey. Rocky Creek is an incredibly difficult horse to second guess, and his last run at Aintree was dire, though despite being comfortably taken care of by Don Cossack in October, he didn’t disgrace himself, and his sudden return to form at Kempton last year isn’t forgotten either. Getting closer to that mark he won off at Kempton, and a good use of a claimer could put him bang in the picture. I’m tempted by the 20’s with Betway. He does owe me, as I thought he was a cert at 20’s at Kempton last year, but PN said he wasn’t going, leaving me to have scraps at 9’s or 10’s. I might just be on a recovery mission with him here. Black Thunder got rid of his jockey at Chepstow in The Welsh National, but I’d forgive any horse who didn’t shine that day, as it was run in atrocious conditions. Ran well at The Festival off of 155, and he’s been given a bit of leeway by the handicapper. I’d slightly prefer Rocky Creek, but Black Thunder has a lot of good performances under his belt, and could see him going well. Up and coming Novice, Le Mercurey, caught the eye earlier in the season, beating decent enough fields in Nove events, and no shame in getting beaten by Seeyouatmidnight last time either. Another who ran well at The Festival last year, and though not the stable stars, completes what looks to me strong trio from the yard.

Also with a 3 strong entry is Rebecca Curtis, and these are headed by a horse I hold in high regard, Irish Cavalier. He also holds an entry in The Cotwsold Chase, and that might be a more realistic target for a horse with a Gold Cup entry, but if the rains didn’t come, then he would look very attractive for this. Personally, I’d hold off with him for the better ground, but a player should he take this in. Audacious Plan would have an outside chance off of his 4th behind What’s Happening at Chelteham in October, but his last run was pretty poor, and this might be beyond him. Doing Fine attracted a fair bit of support in the lead up to The Classic Chase, but he didn’t run. He looked the part when third behind Drop Out Joe at Chepstow, but rather blotted his copybook when pulled up behind the same horse at Wincanton next time. Questions to answer, but I’d probably favour him over Audacious Plan.

Annacotty was a bit of a shock winner in The Paddy Power, in November, and it was a decent field he beat as well. Not surprisingly, given a 5lb rise, he couldn’t quite repeat it next time in The Caspian Caviar, but to be fair to him he doesn’t have that many miles on the clock, and the switch to the Alan King yard will clearly benefit him, so not totally ruled out. The main drawback with him to me would be the trip, and although he’s won a Feltham over 3, it might just be enough for me to leave him alone in this.

Aachen was a welcome winner for me at a price at Cheltenham last month, and only desperate conditions, which really suited the winner, stopped him repeating the feat next time at Sandown. Clearly in the form of his life, but the big question is whether or not he can defy his sky high mark of 151. To be honest, I’m a wee bit dubious, but should the race further cut up, then that 14’s could look very good indeed. Very interesting to see if Venetia can squeeze that last wee bit of improvement out of him. I had a few quid on his stablemate, Renard, in this last year, and he gave me a decent run for my money. He was off of 141 that day, but a string of desperate performances has seen him quickly slip to 127. To be fair to him, his last run was over an inadequate trip, and the testing conditions before that at Sandown wouldn’t play to his strengths either. He’s extremely risky to say the least, but not beyond the realms of possibility that better ground here, over the right trip could see him in a different light. Venetia has done it before, and she had a big comeback from Dare Me at the weekend, so if I don’t have a big bet on anything, then I might throw a couple of quid at him at 33’s, as ill-advisable as that looks.

Gullinbursti is another horse I’ve bet in this, 2 years ago, but he flopped big time, though the heavy going that day seemed to be less than ideal for him. He did finish that season off fairly well, before missing all of last year. Although comfortably beaten in his comeback, it was in the fiercely competitive Sodexo Silver Cup at Ascot, and he as entitled to need it. An interesting enough entry, and should conditions remain Good To Soft, then with him entitled to come on for that run, then he makes some each way appeal at 25’s, especially now he’s down another 3lbs to 134. From the same stable, and also in the same ownership, is Court By Surprise. He’s also a generally available 25-1 shot, and these huge odds might be as a result of him pulling up in The National, followed by being comfortably beat into second on his seasonal re-appearance in a Veterans Chase at Chepstow. You could argue those odds are a bit insulting, he did have a decent time of it last season, but with him being a year younger, Gullinbursti slightly shades it of the two for me.

Le Reve looks very competitive off of 146, a mark which seen him chase home Rocky Creek at Kempton last year, and he followed up that fine effort with a third in The Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. He had a rather indifferent start to the season, but he got back on track with a second behind Kruzhlinin last time, and he makes serious each way appeal at the 20’s with Corals.

I would have to rule out Coologue through stable form alone, and I’d struggle to be too keen on Distime.

Sue Smith has landed a few big Saturday prizes this season, and she has No Planning as a contender here. He unseated over The National fences last time, before being easily enough beaten at Haydock the time before. Stables runners are difficult to ignore in these type of races, but he just looks to me as if he needs to come down a couple of pounds.

I’ve a soft spot for Pass The Hat from the Arthur Moore yard, and he’s always of interest in races like this. Few runs in the past would give him chances here, and he comes off the back of a spin over hurdles, where he was beaten into second by a progressive horse from Jessica Harringtons yard. That should have him fitter for the likes of this, and I genuinely think he would be a contender. The downside with him is that he does tend to get entries for races like this on a regular basis, but he rarely makes the trip. Very risky therefore, even at the 5 day stage, but one to consider should he make the journey across The Irish Sea.

Finally, we have the 13yo Ikorodu Road. I’ve bet him more than once, including a couple of times round here, and he does like Doncaster, but despite winning a weak enough affair last time, for a horse who has his own ideas, he’s surely up against it. If he even look like getting competitive I’ll have to have a couple of quid in running, just in case

It looks very trappy, and he’s entered at Cheltenham on Saturday as well, but had a good look at Rocky Creek at 20’s. I’ll wait until the day though. Ziga Boy at 12’s looks just too big, and he’s the bet.

I’ll probably have a couple of quid on one of the big outsiders on the day, and it’ll probably be between Le Reve, Gullinbursti, or Renard.

GL