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If going for the Stayers Hurdle TNO will need to be held up behind horses to settle, far from certain to get the trip and – probably more importantly – won’t jump as well.
He’d have a much better chance of winning a World Hurdle from the front than a CH imo. No problem staying that trip. Those 20f fast-run races where he’s looked at the end of his tether are neither fish nor fowl to him and I’m convinced he’s a stayer and have been since his novice days.
Take a look at what happens over the first couple of hurdles today, Joe. When in front NTO was keen without Johnson asking (particularly clear to see after the first)… and that’s over 2 miles! STD has said that’s the way to ride him now. I got the impression them saying about “stamina” is more about how he now needs to be ridden – not “stamina” as in “trip needed”. NTD is talking of the Christmas Hurdle or Haydock Champion Trial next. Can’t see them going that route if thinking World Hurdle. imo He’ll only go 3m at Cheltenham if disappointing badly next time.
Value Is EverythingHe’s just beaten the Champion Hurdle 2nd over 2 miles but he’s a stayer *facepalm*
MTOY hardly worth using as a reference point anymore, I’d have thought.
Have a look back at TNO in his younger days at Warwick and Cheltenham. He won The Neptune, remember and just before that was touched off over 20f at Cheltenham in desperate ground by At Fisher’s Cross with the likes of Coneygree and Whisper miles back. It’s highly likely, I think, that his achievements at 2 miles have been in spite of the way he’s been campaigned, rather than because of it.
He would be a very rare specimen of a racehorse if he has lost stamina as he’s aged.
Still, the chance that Twister will suddenly ditch his stubborn belief that he has a champion hurdler on his hands is slim, I suppose and that’s a real shame for the horse. This could well be his last chance of a championship race at the festival. It won’t be the two-miler, so let’s hope his trainer finally sees sense and runs him in the Stayers.
whichever race the trainer chooses for the new one at the festival , I would got there without a further run . His record fresh is phenominal
He’d need deep ground at Kempton to enhance his CH hopes unless a very poor lot turn up. He’d be more likely to get that type of ground at Haydock, but I doubt the horse relishes such conditions despite the fact that he acts on them.
Mark, just watched it again. Went right at the first and it seemed to light him up a bit but Johnson had him quickly back in hand. I’d describe him as an enthusiastic traveller rather than keen. He has never been a hard horse to restrain and Johnson had no problem with that at any point and, indeed, gave him that little breather down the back that allowed MTOY to loom up temporarily. From there, he steadily quickened and as they turned in, have a look at everything behind – he simply outstayed them all from that point his stamina coming into play with every extra stride up the hill. He lost his concentration for a few seconds after the last and idled – not the first time he’s done that – until Dicky woke him up again and he passed the post with his ears pricked.
Speed horses come and win their races late. He has some speed but not enough to do that at the top level although his numerous attempts have been misread to make him look to be charging home at times when what is happening is his stamina kicking in. I can’t think of another trainer who would have campaigned a fine stayer so bloody pig-headedly. At the heart of this, I’m sure, is that late flourish after being hampered by Our Conor. NTD simply refuses to believe he would not have won that day and it looks like he’ll carry that to his grave, so denying a top-class animal the recognition he deserves.
If it were a choice of being held up in a Champion or held up in a World Hurdle, Joe; I’d say TNO has a better chance at 3m and would stay the longer trip. But it’s not a choice of those two things. I think you’re missing the importance of new tactics, front running and the new enthusiasm that’s generated.
I don’t say NTO won’t stay, I say he’s far from certain. Of course he’ll stay 2 1/2 on good ground, an in form TNO didn’t stay 2 1/2 on heavy when beaten by At Fishers Cross. He’ll need even more stamina to win at 3m on good going. Yes, fact he’s older now usually means they stay further. But we’ve just seen a much better performance than he’s shown for at least two years, imo today may well be NTO’s best ever performance… when showing a lot more zest from the front. “Enthusiasm” means a horse doesn’t stay as far. If showing the same zest in front at 3m imo it’s no more than 50/50 him staying.
Value Is EverythingWell, we shall see, Mark.
Do you really believe he didn’t stay 20f on heavy that day? Because he was outstayed, by a neck, doesn’t mean he didn’t stay.
But I suspect this is another one we’ll just have to agree to disagree on.
Well, we shall see, Mark.
Do you really believe he didn’t stay 20f on heavy that day? Because he was outstayed, by a neck, doesn’t mean he didn’t stay.
But I suspect this is another one we’ll just have to agree to disagree on.
I remember it well. The way TNO jumped the last he looked all over the winner, only to be caught late. Didn’t stay the trip in comparrison to another top novice At Fishers Cross… And imo TNO was a better novice than AFC so had he stayed as well as AFC would’ve won. Technically I suppose you’re right, Joe; “outstayed”. But he’ll need to stay 3m better than all the top stayers to win a World Hurdle… Which is why I said he “didn’t stay” that day.
Value Is EverythingHe’s just beaten the Champion Hurdle 2nd over 2 miles but he’s a stayer *facepalm*
MTOY hardly worth using as a reference point anymore, I’d have thought.
Are you joking? Last year’s winner’s been beaten 15L. Last year’s 4th (who was beaten 6L last year) was beaten 25L.
The 2 class horses in the field have destroyed their opponents. TNO’s run to 170 odd and MTOY to about 160. MTOY’s only 9 ffs, not as if he’s 12. He’s still a top class horses. You realise he was placed in Grade 1s at all 3 festivals 8 months ago, right?
What’s all this 3m rubbish?
If The New One goes to the Champion Hurdle without another run and makes the running that is by far his best chance of winning at the festival particularly as we don’t know what’s happening with Faugheen and Annie Power.
Other than those two the race is wide open.
Zark, I think we’re looking at this horse through different sets of binoculars:
He hasn’t won a hurdle race in 3 years
He hasn’t put in an RPR in the 170s for almost 3 years
He’ll be 10 very shortly and has won 2 Grade 1s – one of which, he probably shouldn’t have after TNO blundered badly at the last. In the other he beat Cockney Sparrow when that one was just 4 and he was 6.
Last time out he ran to an RPR of 144
He got hammered today getting 8lbs from a horse who is just 3lbs his superior on ORs and who himself has had 3 attempts at winning a Champion Hurdle, failing each time.
He’s a lovely horse and he’s nice to watch and he has plenty of fans who have lost plenty of money on him. I’m not one of them.
TNO was quality today – ideally on ground thats softer than good hes the best of the English looking toward the CH – this year you would think is his last chance at a tilt. Very slick hurdling today – really fast.
come march if it was no worse than soft and not good @ 2m – that might be his chance. Personally I’d love him to win and it might be under those circumstances with luck on his side he might do it. NTD was adamant hes one of the best hes trained – hard to argue with that – end of story. The threat from across the sea looms large tho
Zark, I think we’re looking at this horse through different sets of binoculars:
He hasn’t won a hurdle race in 3 years
He hasn’t put in an RPR in the 170s for almost 3 years
He’ll be 10 very shortly and has won 2 Grade 1s – one of which, he probably shouldn’t have after TNO blundered badly at the last. In the other he beat Cockney Sparrow when that one was just 4 and he was 6.
Last time out he ran to an RPR of 144
He got hammered today getting 8lbs from a horse who is just 3lbs his superior on ORs and who himself has had 3 attempts at winning a Champion Hurdle, failing each time.
He’s a lovely horse and he’s nice to watch and he has plenty of fans who have lost plenty of money on him. I’m not one of them.
I think you’ve been conned by Henderson and the MTOY fan club, Joe. There’s no doubt he’s nowhere near his best on Heavy ground, but has run some of his best races on soft. No more than a few pounds – if that – worse than form on good-soft or good.
Won Betfair Hurdle by 5 lengths without coming under maximum pressure – on soft. At the time a career best.
Didn’t do much – if at all – better beaten 1/2 length by Champagne Fever in Supreme next time out – on goodish ground.
Beat The New One 1/2 length in Christmas Hurdle – on soft… a performance a lot better than previous start in Fighting Fifth – on goodish… And can Kempton really be rated much worse than his neck second to Jezki? Considering TNO finished only 2 1/2 lengths behind that pair and was that after hampered by Our Conor’s sad fall.
MYOY did finish just over 4 lengths in front of MTOY in last year’s goodish ground Champion, but NTD’s horse wan’t in the same form last year.Where is the evidence MTOY was a long way below form today? Am willing to believe he wasn’t at his very best but not by the amount you seem to believe. The trainer has blamed the ground at times when imo it’s been temperament.
Value Is EverythingI think the going played the biggest part in it personally.
The New One gets further than the minimum and the soft going and uphill finish helped him
I’d double or quits you on those fish and chips Ginge if they meet in the Champion Hurdle MTOY’s finishes ahead of TNO..?Blackbeard to conquer the World
Mark, not sure how you think I’ve been conned by anyone: I’ve never rated the horse because he very very seldom gets the job done. His Christmas Hurdle victory was a fortunate one which came about because TNO had not got back into top gear by the time the post came: it is the only close finish MTOY has ever won.
As for the ground, I didn’t mention it at all so I’m not sure why you’re referencing it. Zark’s contention which you seem to share, is that he is not far off his best and that he ran close to it today.
You both need to have a word with the handicapper who, at MTOY’s best, rated him 168 and today had him assessed at 155 the 3rd lowest rating of his career. If you both think he ran anywhere close to 168 today getting 8lbs and an easy beating from TNO, then TNO, at pushing nine has suddenly become a 175 to 180 horse. Little wonder everyone’s backing him for the Champion Hurdle.
As I said, I think MTOY ran to about 160 today probably. I’ll watch a replay of the race later. I wouldn’t mind seeing him come out at Sandown at the beginning of February and making all. Give him confidence to get his head in front. If neither Annie Power nor Faugheen turn up, this could well be MTOY vs TNO come March.
Watch the replay. BG hits MTOY twice. He takes it so easy on him after it’s obvious TNO’s gotten away. You could call it schooling in public.
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