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5 Day Decs……
http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=663115&r_date=2016-12-10#raceTabs=lc_
Yanworth the obvious one to beat here, and the sponsors, Stan James, have priced it up, installing him as 13-8 favourite.
I’m hoping my Champion Hurdle “dark horse”, Ivan Grozny makes the trip, and it’s at least encouraging that he’s the only entry from Willie Mullins yard. I’m not convinced he’ll travel though. It would be good to see him though, as win or lose, I’d at least know where I’d stand with him.
I’d like last years winner Old Guard, to run well, having him at huge odds for The Champion Hurdle, but based on what we’ve seen so far this season, both over fences and hurdles, that would appear unlikely. He needs to step up massively on his Haydock run. He does like it round here though I suppose.
As for this race itself, it’ll be a definite “no bet” for me, but I hope the majority stand their ground anyway.
Like you Bobby, I’ve backed Ivan for the CH at long odds and he could win this all right given the number of dodgy characters. I had a quick look earlier, and much as I think he needs a trip these days, I was strongly tempted to take the 11/2 about TNO each way – that’s gone now (9/2).
Paddy and Betfair seem to think Ivan will travel as they go 7/2 with Coral offering 6s.
Elliott has that Labaik in who obviously has talent but is quirky to say the least having refused to race last time.
I think MTOY is on the downgrade going by his lack of keenness last time, not to mention another poor finishing effort. Suspect all is not well with the horse.
Hargam’s had lots of chances. Court Minstrel will probably get his ground and could run his best race for some time but is thoroughly exposed.
I don’t know what Yanworth will do. I’m convinced he was keeping something for himself last time and strongly suspect he’s far from straightforward despite his record.
TNO is unlikely to get outpaced in this field and he would be the danger to IG if that one turns up. I think TNO will be nearer 3/1 than 5/2 come the day. Whether he’ll enjoy the ground which will reportedly be on the fast side is another matter. Twister will be preaching that the ground will be perfect for him but he’s had his fair share of sore bones and this ain’t the type of going for aching horses.
All in all, a race best watched.
Hmmm, just read that King says Yanworth more likely to go for the Christmas Hurdle and apparently TNO is only a possible. So in I must go to take the 20s EW on Hargam. Wouldn’t be good enough to win this as it stands but if Ivan does not travel and the race cuts up, well, at least he’s an intended runner. He seems to have been around forever. Was surprised to be reminded he’s still just 5.
Hendersons words
“Hargam is a handicapper who cannot run in a handicap because he gets so much weight. We got lucky that he won a nice Listed race but he is not good enough to win a Grade One. It is good prize money on Saturday and he will take his chance.”
Strange looking race, and just the type I can get badly wrong, even to those who’ll actually turn up. Hence the (initial anyway) plan to avoid from a betting perspective.
Joe, I hope you’re right about Ivan travelling, as I’m sure you’ll agree, we’re now at the stage where we need to see “where he’s at”.
Labaik is a nice horse, been impressed with him when he’s ran, vou just couldn’t be confident you’d get a run.
Hargam looks a good shout, as you know he’ll be going, and the 20’s is fair. As I said, really just want Ivan & Old Guard to turn up and run well, but 50’s is far too big for Court Minstrel, and I might just have a few quid on.
I bet him at Kempton in October at 25’s, he was an absolute steal, and I was gutted with the R4 when MTOY was withdrawn, as he’d have taken care of him comfortably that day. Still got a few quid back off of him, but at much reduced odds. I had a really big lift off him at Aintree a couple of years back, but it still sticks in my throat that I missed him at 40’s at Chepstow last season. Probably a horse to concentrate on mainly in handicaps, but with doubts around so many, 50’s is worth a go. Who knows if he’ll actually turn up himself though.
Good luck with MTOY Cowboy. He has to prove he retains his ability I suppose, but if on song, he must go close. I very rarely lay, but I layed him at Haydock the last time, as I thought he was the outsider of the 4, yet he was odds on. I certainly won’t be doing that on Saturday though. Nothing to celebrate though, as Old Guard let me down badly
lolHave to say with Yanworth unlikely to run I cannot see past The New One. Top rated wins first time up every season and his fourth in last years Champion is excelent form. Granted MTOY beat him that day but I am not sure with all his problems he is up to it.
At 4/1 I think he is a bet to nothing.I’ve taken the 5’s about Mister Miyagi, weighted to beat Hargam and just found the trip too demanding last time. I fully expect him to be in the first 3 for a stable going well.
I’ve just run my eye over the field for this, and it seems more than likely to
cut up a lot with a few at the head of the market failing to trap. At this point
I think the value lies with one Bobby has already highlighted. COURT MINSTREL
wouldn’t have a hope if the field stood it’s ground, but that’s unlikely to happen. There’s
nothing between him and Hargam on their running 2 months back at Kempton, but I think
there’s more value in the 33/1 3 places with Bet365 than the 20/1 available for Hargam.
I hope you took the 50s Bobby, that looks plenty big enough now. I’ll know shortly how smart
or otherwise I’ve been after the final decs, but he has to have a decent chance of a place at
least if all goes to plan.Yeah, got a few quid on at the 50’s Graham, but would gladly sacrifice that bet for big runs from Ivan Grozny & Old Guard.
As expected Yanworth doesn’t appear, along with Ivan Grozny, Labaik amd Hargam.
Those going to post ….
My Tent Or Yours
The New One
Mister Miyagi
Old Guard
Court Minstrel
Melodic RendezvousAlways mistrust Mullins but am annoyed at Nicky who said that Hargam would run here
Nothing would surprise me with Mullins Joe, but I thought that Hargam would
have taken his place in this, unlucky with him
VTC and BigG,
50/1 and 33/1 isn’t just value, you got massive value!
I make him a fair 14/1 shot now! Unfortunately I can’t get Stan James’s 25/1, so taken 20/1 each way.Also done 4/1 Mister Miyagi.
Don’t think My Tent Or Yours is priced too badly @ 6/4 on that ground tbh.
It’s Old Guard and The New One who imo look far too short and make the book.Value Is EverythingGreg Wood mentioned on Twitter the other night that ‘Yanworth’ was a very doubtful runner,he was trading at 7/4 on the machine with My Tent or yours at 7/2…Of course being the first person to spot the talent of ‘MTOY’ and being mugged in both the ‘Supreme’ and ‘Champion hurdles’ at 25/1 and 33/1 I had to get on…within seconds of doing so it occurred to me that he has never won at Cheltenham..I know whats coming but he owes me nothing and his Tote Gold Trophy victory goes down as one of my all time fav coups.
Gord, fair play on the prices you got for that Supreme and CH, but he didn’t get mugged: he just didn’t finish off his race as so often happens with him.
For the first time I can recall, he did not travel keenly last time. If he settles again tomorrow, I might well lay him for a place.
VTC and BigG,
50/1 and 33/1 isn’t just value, you got massive value!
I make him a fair 14/1 shot now! Unfortunately I can’t get Stan James’s 25/1, so taken 20/1 each way.Also done 4/1 Mister Miyagi.
Don’t think My Tent Or Yours is priced too badly @ 6/4 on that ground tbh.
It’s Old Guard and The New One who imo look far too short and make the book.Cheers Ginger, he’s got the going and the course in his favour so I’m really hopeful
of a place, which would be profitable, but if things went his way in the race he’s not
without a chance of better. Good luck with Mister Miyagi, definitely in with a good shout
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