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Not wanting too look at this in too much depth with the unsettled forecast this week, even if the frost covers are going down.
32 entered, and whoever comes out on top, will certainly have to dig deep. Not the strongest looking renewal, though there are a few interesting sorts in there.
After a very nice return off of West End Rocker, and a big bet each way on Philson Run, I’ve went right off the boil in this race. Had Hey Big Spender as clear second choice in 2012, but managed to leave him “unbet”, and since them my selections haven’t been sighted…………so very wary this year, but hopefully I can get back on track.
After a very satisfactory seasonal debut at Chepstow, I had Ayr in mind for Sego Success, but this quickly became a realistic target as well, and very good to see him get an entry. Seemed to hate it at Cheltenham next time out, though trainer put that down to the ground, and got his season back on track next time at Doncaster, winning easily. Up 7lbs for that, but he seems good value for it, and he displayed stamina aplenty last year in The 4 Miler at The Festival, and heavy ground concerns aside, he looks decent value at 10’s with the sponsors, especially with him as low as 6’s with Paddy Power. Big fan of his stablemate Midnight Prayer, who’s notoriously difficult to keep sound, and he was a late absentee from Chepstow, suffering from a cough. Another horse who displayed his stamina in Cheltenhams 4 Miler, landing it in 2014. He’ll have a few quid of mine on him should he make it, but trainer didn’t sound too hopeful that he’d be out soon, when discussing him last week, and he remains risky ante-post.
I’m trying to forget about it, but had a few quid on the Venetia Williams trained Ballyoliver for this last year, but he never really figured, and it’s been much the same story since he won at Carlisle in November 2014. He is though, back down to his last winning mark, and if he’s in the right mood, then he could take advantage. Risky though, as he’s a moody sort, but the 33’s does make me look twice. He’s joined here by stablemates Houblon Des Obeaux, and 2013 winner, Rigadin De Beauchene. Houblon, like Ballyoliver, has been given a massive chance by the handicapper, down 16lbs in just over a year, and he looks far too big at 16’s. The only concern I have with him is that his last 2 runs have been lifeless, and although this is just the type of race which could be a target for him, I just wonder if he’s got bigger targets in the spring. If he continues to slide, he’s going to be one of the best handicapped horses in training. That might be enough for me to have a saver. I’ve been waiting out Rigadin for 2 years, and having bet him at 25’s, he would surely have went close at Chepstow, but for The Welsh National getting abandoned. He didn’t hang about though, and duly went out and won at Haydock, rather than waiting for the re-arranged Chepstow feature. I had a very small go on him that day at Haydock, but was small beer compared to what I’d have won at Chepstown off him, so I want to go in again, though this might just be a big ask for him to repeat his 2013 win, so soon after another slog in the mud at Haydock. Not unduly punished, I could see him appealing to many at the 12’s.
Pete The Feat had a very encouraging comeback at Fontwell last month, and I wouldn’t be in a rush to rule him out. That run showed him more than up for a test like this, and despite his somewhat iffy jumping, and questionable stable form, he looks big at 16’s. He looks an interesting each way candidate, as does De Kerry Man. He had my cash on him last time at Cheltenham when he was going for a 4 timer, and he could be called the winner a long way out……………until he unseated at that tricky fence at the top of the hill
He’ll come here off 125, and I think he’s miles better than that, so he’s definitely considered.There’s a big Irish entry this year, with 4 from the Gordon Elliot yard, and 2 from Mouse Morris. I’ll hold fire until I see who makes the journey, but the Gigginstown pair of Folsom Blue & Roi Du Mee would be very interesting. Roi Du Mee has plenty in the book to give him a chance in this line up, and Folsom Blue would be coming off the back of a very encouraging comeback. Would be great if they all came over, and if I had to pick one though, it would be Dromnea at 25’s.
Current market leader is the Paul Nicholls trained Vivaldi Collonges, though he’s also got other engagements, and his stablemate Black Thunder, who unseated at Chepstow, still had a hard enough race before he unshipped. I’d be inclined to leave the pair of them alone at the moment, with Vivaldi looking a bit underpriced at 7’s, and struggling to see why he’s favourite. I’d have him as 20’s+, strange old price that.
Also getting rid of his rider at Chepstow was the Rebecca Curtis trainedRed Devils Lad, and like Black Thunder, this might come too soon. His stablemate Audacious Plan doesn’t look the most obvious, but I think his 4th to Whats Happening at Cheltenham in October was decent, and he’s not totally ruled out, whilst the other from the yard, Doing Fine, though not for me, looks to be the first to attract decent support.
2 trainer in very different form are Kerry Lee & Jonjo O’Neil. Lee is fresh from her biggest win with Mountainous in The Welsh National, and she could be represented here by Russe Blanc. This looks just beyond him, but with the stable flying high, he could just outrun his odds of 25’s, and looks place material. Jonjo meanwhile, has barely had a runner lately, never mind a winner, with his Upswing being a huge disappointment on Saturday. I think his Spookydooky is very much one to keep an eye on, but stable form is a big concern, and it’ll be a watching brief with him for the timebeing.
I’ll leave it at that, as don’t want to cover the whole field, only for it to fall to the weather, but there’s plenty more in there, including raiders from the Tizzard, Twiston-Davies, and Skelton yards.
Despite my recent record, I’m fairly confident of a decent run from Sego Success at the 10’s. It’ll be Midnight Prayer on the day for me, to make it an Alan King double, and should I go for a third it’ll be between Dromnea and Houblon.
Haven’t even looked at the prices yet, let alone what I’m sure is a trademark excellent VTC preview. Look forward to comparing and contrasting at some point tomorrow.
Roi du Mee
A veteran in both age and experience, he will be having his fiftieth career start should he show up. With seven Graded wins – including the Grade 1 Down Royal Champion Chase in 2013 – he’s always been a high class animal albeit just shy of top notch. Still retains a great deal of his ability as evidenced by his third in this years renewal. A real mud lover winning half of his twelve attempts on heavy ground he’s also a highly proficient jumper. Pulled up on his sole UK start in the 2013 Lancashire Chase. Holds entry in Thursday’s Kinloch Brae.
Black Thunder
A decent animal with four wins including at Grade 2 but he has yet to win outside of novice/graduation company. Finished second off three pounds lower in the 2014 United House although that was on good ground and was knackered when he unshipped Harry Cobden in last week’s Welsh National.
Mala Beach
A decent staying hurdler who won a strongly run renewal of the Galmoy Hurdle two Januarys ago on soft ground so it is feasible that the conditions will suit. However, he’s yet to demonstrate that he’s as good over the larger obstacles and as well as being somewhat error prone, he has also jumped right in the past. Would be of much greater interest if he takes up his Thyestes entry instead.
Houblon des Obeaux
Starting his career as a decent juvenile hurdler, he’s still fairly young for one that has been around for ages. Though without a win since the 2013 Silver Cup, he was arguably at his best last season with three consecutive seconds in the Hennessy, the Silver Cup and the Denman Chase. He’s shown nothing like that level of form this season and has been quite shocking in the jumping department. As a consequence, he’s already shed a stone off his official rating and he was keeping on at Ascot when beaten. His two runs at marathon distances have been inconclusive but it might take more than a sliding rating to rekindle his spark.
Sego Success
This point winner is still fairly lightly raced although two thirds of his twelve rules start have been over fences. Picked up two soft ground Novice Chases last season including the listed contest on this card despite running keenly in a strongly run race and was sent off second favourite for the four miler where despite a rough passage, was still in contention until late in the day. Not much to shout about in his first two starts this season on good and good to soft ground where his jumping was sketchy. However, with cheekpieces applied, he strung the field out at Doncaster on soft ground putting five lengths between himself and Reaping The Reward who ran with great credit in the Sandown veterans chase. This race was nominated as the target after the event and comes here as a leading player.
Captain Von Trappe
Distantly related to The Dickler, Newmill and Ballyline, this winning pointer was always going to be a chaser and though a novice, has already advanced on his hurdles rating of 117. After winning his second start at Galway, he got within reach of Shantou Flyer at Punchestown before finding the Drinmore happening all too much, and probably too short for him. He was unable to make the running in last month’s Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown and eventually pulled up. While obviously a competitive enough race, he has disappointed in all races containing fifteen or more runners.
Folsom Blue
Although he’s out of the classy two-mile handicapper Spirit Leader, it has transpired that gruelling tests have proved his metier. A decent novice hurdler picking up a listed event in heavy ground at Clonmel, he has only won once over fences and that came in Punchestown’s eighteen runner National Trial over three and a half on heavy ground. Nevertheless, he has ran with credit including when a close fifth in the 2014 Irish National and last month in the Paddy Power when a staying on third after a troubled journey. Holds an entry back at Leopardstown over two mile five for Sunday but would be of interest if making his UK debut in Warwickshire instead.
Algernon Pazham
At seven years old, this second season chaser is very much part of the youth brigade. After making a winning chase debut at Leicester, he twice ran into a place at Haydock on soft although there was a last fence fence refusal at Uttoxeter sandwiched in between. Nevertheless, he capped his inaugural season with a creditable seventh in the Whitbread, weakening in the closing stages. He finished second on his return in a rare for the course Class 2 event and on the back of that, was sent off as favourite for the Becher. However, his jumping was shoddy before finally despatching of Ryan Hatch at Foinavon and the subsequent form of his Bangor second has been much of a muchness in any case. A full brother to Welsh National fourth One In A Milan, he probably has a future in these events but issues surrounding his jumping and attitude need addressing first.
Vivaldi Collonges
Another seven year old, this half brother to the decent Nenuphar Collonges had three starts as a novice last term finishing last in small fields behind Kings Palace before pulling up in the four miler where never travelling. He registered his first win on his return at Kelso last month in heavy ground where after tracking a gentle pace, he ultimately destroyed his five rivals. While that was far from a strong contest, the eight pound rise seems fair. Furthermore, along with Black Thunder, he represents a returning-to-form Nicholls yard that has taken this contest with three of its five entries over the past ten years. Interesting contender although he also holds an entry in the Novices’ Chase earlier on the card (yard also has Silsol in that race).
Spookydooky
While this point winner didn’t start chasing until this season, he did collect a three mile handicap hurdle at Southwell where though the pace wasn’t strong, like many at the track, the race itself was testing enough. It’s safe enough to put a line through his chase debut effort at Aintree where he pulled too much to do himself justice and he made amends next time taking a Novices’ Handicap at the Hennessy meeting. Though he took a while to get going, he gave plenty for Richard Johnson’s urgings to take the race near the line. Though he earned a two day ban, the jockey praised the horse’s attitude and surmised that he’s suited by soft ground and a big field. He was second last time out in the attritional Tommy Whittle and went down with credit keeping a rejuvenated Cloudy Too behind him while giving weight. That he’s a full brother to Welsh National runner up Firebird Flyer emphasises his latent stamina and is another interesting type.
Dromnea
Twice a winner as a novice last term, Dromnea is no stranger to big fields having ran respectably in three twenty-plus fields as a novice hurdler and the big novice handicaps at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals. This season, he’s turned his attention to taking on three miles, participating in the Troytown and the Paddy Power and running with greater credit in the latter despite finishing seventh. While he’s another with a Thyestes entry, he’d probably fare better in lesser company than this.
Red Devil Lads
An expensive horse after his wide margin win in an Irish point, it took him nine rules starts (including two chasing failures) to finally get off the mark in a Ffos Las handicap hurdle last season. After pulling up on his return to fences, he reeled off a hat-trick of wins in the spring in three mile plus events (two on heavy) and his mark rose from 109 to 136. He made a satisfactory return at Ludlow in the middle of December coming off worse in an eventual match. He has a tendency to jump left which seems to be mitigated by going the right way and can take his racing well. However, he wasn’t jumping well before departing early in the Welsh National last week.
Unic de Bersy
A maiden over hurdles, he won his chase debut at Wexford in October and though he found Grade 2 company two hot in November, he’s since finished runner up in a couple of handicaps. Those handicaps have both come in 2016 and it would be a shame if he’s asked to run again this month.
Midnight Prayer
Won the Novice Chase on this card two years ago and followed up with the four miler at the festival. However, has only ran twice since finishing well beaten in the Hennessy last season and returning to the same meeting to finish fourth over two mile six. Initially looking out of sorts as he lacked fluency and struggled to keep pace, he did begin to pick up when stamina became an issue and ultimately ran well in a race that was bound to be too sharp. While he’s a stablemate of Sego Success, Alan King does have a fine record in this race and it was with another eleven year old that he won the race in 2008.
Doing Fine
Only had two runs as a hurdler as following a shock defeat of Carrag Mor, his season was curtailed. Nevertheless, he made a winning return on his chase debut in a Novices’ Handicap at Ffos Las on soft and while his next two runs were disappointing, he ran with credit when second in the Novice Chase on this card last season. Afterwards, he finished midfield in the four miler before running no sort of race at Punchestown. He made a decent enough start to his second season when third in the old Mercedes Benz chase at Chepstow but after stumbling in the Badger Ales, his race fell to pieces completely. While he has ability, all told, he would need a career best to win here which given his fragile and mercurial profile is far from assured.
Rigadin de Beauchene
Despite having more Ps than 1s in his formline, he is a most likable stalwart of the spere with wins in both this contest three years ago (off eleven pounds lower) and the Haydock National Trial in 2014 (still off a two pound lower mark than here). After pulling up on his next four starts – including in both aforementioned contests – he threatened a resurgence and he made good on his threats with a hugely popular win from fellow veteran Harry The Viking in last month’s The Last Fling chase. While winning this year’s renewal would be immense, it necessitates winning off a mark higher than he’s ever won from before and his inconsistent nature only exacerbates his task.
Loose Chips
A capable performer at his level but has always been found wanting at Class 2 and above including last time at Kempton when beaten twenty-nine lengths at 16/1. Goes in the soft as evidenced by his second in a close knit race at Ascot on his penultimate start but seemed leg weary on his sole start at three and a half and is a likelier type for the military races again at Sandown.
Pete The Feat
Was attempting a six-timer when going off as favourite and finishing a close third in the 2013 renewal of this race. Was only two pounds higher that day and his last comparable effort was when winning a six runner Fontwell contest on good to soft that December. Some encouragement on his last start back at that track when second of seven but is biting off too much here.
Ballyheigue Bay
Found things happening too quickly when finishing behind Loose Chips on his latest start at Kempton but prior to that, had finished in the first three in all of his five chase efforts. On his penultimate start, he produced a career best to finish third in the London Marathon so getting the trip shouldn’t be a problem. However, that was on good to soft and his capacity for a dour slog can not be assured as his only previous start in heavy came in a two and a half mile Amateur Riders’ Hurdle at Plumpton.
Upepito
This ex-French eight year old has been jumping fences since he was three and was unlucky to have gained his only blemish when slipping and unseating at Aintree two starts ago. He actually won the two mile Handicap Chase on this card last season and made an fine return to action this term when narrowly going down while giving a pound to the vastly improved Village Vic at Wetherby on good ground. However, has two huge questions to answer in his resolve (found little after travelling like the winner last time) and more pertinently, the fact that he’ll be going a mile further than he’s ever been previously.
What A Good Night
Since October 2014, he has gone up from a mark of 83 to today’s perch of 131 despite only winning three of the seven relevant races. Bizarrely, during that period, he twice fell at the last fence when having the race unequivocally under wraps. Indeed, the only non-victory or incompletion came when bursting a blood vessel on his final race last term. His latest start was when handing a defeat to Algernon Pazham and although the form hasn’t worked out brilliantly, his jumping was fine. Intriguingly, he was saved for the Rowland Meyrick which would have been “his Gold Cup” so he will be finely tuned should he turn up. However, whilst a clear improver, Warwick is not a forgiving racecourse for clumsy jumpers and he has been miserable on his previous attempts on heavy ground.
Cyclop
A curious specimen being a small five year old and competing in this race. Nevertheless, he was set to run out a most comfortable winner over three miles on heavy at Market Rasen when falling at the last and made amends at this track a week later on soft ground jumping brilliantly in the process. However, in The Last Fling chase at Haydock, his jumping did not hold up at all and ultimately cost him any real chance although to his credit, he still stayed on when beaten. If his latest start was a one off then it is very difficult to know quite what to make of Cyclop and he can’t be dismissed out of hand. All the same, he still needs to find improvement and it would still make for a remarkable achievement should he win this heat.
Audacious Plan
A fair hurdler earning a rating of 123, he was flattered to finished placed on his first couple of chase starts. An improved effort at Chepstow was followed by a win at Ffos Las over three miles on good ground before improving again when runner up over three mile six on soft ground at the Punchestown Festival. He wasn’t given a hard time of things on his first two starts this season at Chepstow and Cheltenham on good ground and neither outing was without promise. However, returning to Cheltenham saw an inauspicious outing where he didn’t jump a fence and was pulled up some way from home. Still relatively unexposed and capable of improvement but others with more solid profiles.
Golden Chieftain
Grand servant who sneaked in at the bottom of the handicap to win at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. Though he hasn’t achieved anything like that since, he did collect the Southern National in November off 121. However, depending on who tops the weights, we’re now entering the realm of long handicap (maybe long-long handicap) and even off 128, a race this competitive would be a tough ask at this stage of his career.
Ballyoliver
A course winner on his chase debut on new years eve 2011 and recorded his latest win off his current mark at Carlisle last November but a thirty-two length sixth in this contest last year and difficult to see him fare better this time round.
Russe Blanc
A steady improver over the past couple of seasons winning over three mile two and on heavy ground. Disappointed when favourite in a five runner Bangor contest last month and a mark of 127 looks just beyond his scope. Particularly at this level.
Foxbridge
Lightly raced ten year old who reeled off a hat trick of wins last season before a creditable fifth in the Midlands National. Promising second in the Amateurs’ race at the Paddy Power meeting in November and wouldn’t be a forlorn hope off 126.
De Kerry Man
Was undefeated in three starts over fences last season with his wins coming over around two and a half miles including at this track. Was still in the lead when slipping on landing and unseating three out in the three mile two handicap at Cheltenham on new year’s day. Has since been aimed at this race and can’t be readily discounted.
Lovcen
Fourth in the Spa Novices’ Hurdle at the festival in 2012 and won the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle that season for Alan King. Achieved nothing of the likes since and was sold to the Leech’s for £18,000. Won a three runner Wetherby Novice on his first start for the yard in May 2014 but has done nothing in either subsequent run.
Universal Soldier
Pulled up in this race three years ago before winning a pair of Hunter Chases the following season. Last seen in June when pulling up in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter.
Tales Of Milan
Never had a rating higher than 124 and pulled up off that mark in last year’s renewal. Best effort since was when eighteen lengths behind Loose Chips in a military race and last seen beaten thirty lengths in the London National.
Coolking
Second in the 2014 Devon National off 118 and won at this course last March off 105. Neither effort gives him a chance here.Part of the problem with Algernon Pazham is the lack of a top jockey. Looks like he requires stronger handling, particularly in these second season handicaps.
That or he’s just in poor form and will bolt in at Uttoxeter in the Midlands National or something.
Can’t back Spookydooky until I see something from Jonjo’s yard which doesn’t run like a pantomime horse
I think I’ll wait til its jocked up.
Nice one Bhall
pleased to see you like Sego.Mark, been a wee bit disappointed with a few of the NTD runners lately, but I’m hoping he can turn the corner soon. I thought Algernon would have won a decent prize by now, but just wondering if he needs to come down a couple of pounds now? Got a few questions to answer now I think………..you going to risk him?
Nice one Bhall
pleased to see you like Sego.Mark, been a wee bit disappointed with a few of the NTD runners lately, but I’m hoping he can turn the corner soon. I thought Algernon would have won a decent prize by now, but just wondering if he needs to come down a couple of pounds now? Got a few questions to answer now I think………..you going to risk him?
I think it was a tad unfair of the handicapper to stiff him so much for finishing second on his penultimate run but I still think he should be capable of a decent race off this mark. However, I’ll think thrice before backing him for this if Hatch is in the plate again. Seems unable to get the horse into a rhythm
Cracking write up Bobby and B’Hall, that’s the race summed up for me, all I
have to do now is pick the winner
SEGO SUCCESS is fancied by you both and he seems all the rage in the market,
and after bolting up at Doncaster last time out it’s not surprising. He has
gone up 7lbs as you pointed out Bobby, and I’m in agreement that the handicapper
is not being unfair here, he is a major playerThe one that looks of great interest to me, and my main fancy in the race, is WHAT A
GOOD NIGHT. Take out the race in which he broke a blood vessel at Stratford, and it
should have been 5 wins out the last 6 without doubt, and going well in the other when
he stumbled and unseated Harry Skelton, although it was too early to say how close he
would have gone in that one.The only reason I haven’t gone in heavy on him yet, is the going. He has won on soft
but as B’Hall mentioned, he hasn’t run well on the 3 times he encountered heavy. Those
races were 2+ years ago, and he looks a better horse now, but it is a bit of a concern.The going is heavy at the moment but it is forecast dry between now and race time, with a
fair breeze. If the going can pick up a bit towards g/soft, I think that even with the big
hike up the weights, 15lbs in the past 10 weeks, he could still, strangely enough, be well
handicapped.He is still 14/1 with Stan James (as low as 8/1 with Coral) and should it come up not be too
testing, I doubt that he will be anywhere near that come Saturday afternoon. I’ve chanced
taking a little of that, but I’m holding on for signs of improvement and watching the market
at the same time before I go in again.This looks a very decent race.
Some outstanding analysis here – thanks to Bobby and to BH
I’ll back two: Foxbridge and Russe Blanc, with preference for Foxbridge.
Might be worth an in-play bet if something gets into a nice rhythm early; alongside Sandown, Warwick’s a place where you can get a huge advantage from establishing a good rhythm
Good luck all
Once again I liked the look of Folsom Blue but once again he’s not making the trip over. I’m going to side with De Kerry Man who was still going well when unseating LTO. Jumped the fence perfectly well just seemed to crumple on landing. Nice low weight and still generally a 12/1 shot. Of the others I shall more than likely throw a few quid at Red Devils Lad who didn’t get far as one of my fancies in the Welsh National last week and also Vivaldi Collonges who won nicely first time up at Kelso on heavy.
I like Dromnea in this.Mouse had another horse who looked to have a fair chance entered but relies solely on this boy now.
He ran well in 2 good Novice handicaps at Cheltenham and P’town last spring where he could’ve been even closer with a bit of luck.Was running a great race in the Paddy Power at Xmas before making a mistake at the 2nd last where he lost momentum when travelling as well as any. He has form on heavy ground and although he’s not guaranteed to get the trip the fact Mouse sends him over suggests he thinks he will and that’s good enough for me. Mark Enright’s already booked for the ride and he’d surely have a few rides in Naas on Saturday if he stayed at home so he’ll be expecting a bold show too.
Had a look at Dromnea but not sure he wants this trip.
Well done to those who took the early prices on De Kerry Man. I missed them so will be giving the race a swerve. Given his lack of experience, jockey’s lack of experience, the capsize last time, and competition for the lead in what is a much more competitive race, he now makes limited appeal at the current best price 9/1.
Usually like front runners and Warwick is a place that favours front/prominent runners, but I make a massive 11 out of the 15 runners as best racing prominently, with 4 (possibly 5) as “need to lead”. I backed both Rigadin De Beauchene and Da Kerry Man last time out when able to get their own way in front; former seems to jump a lot better in front, latter just prefers it that way. If they were the only front runners I’d play again, but rather field against them today. Loose Chips and Ballyeige Boy similar types whilst Red Devil Lads and Peat The Feat probably need to be somewhere in the front line, arguably Dromnea, Algernon Pazham and (recently) Houblon Des Obeaux too (jumping used to be his asset but seemingly no longer). Then there’s Vivaldi Collonges who usually tracks pace and Sego Success showed improved form last time when switched to leading.
I can see why Foxbridge has been backed, unfortunately he’s presumably Pricewise so price went before I could get on. Russe Blanc should be held up, but what happened last time out and will he stay? What A Good Night isn’t certain to stay either, but at the prices looks worth risking. Midnight Prayer could be the one to stay on past the others; if he hadn’t missed the Welsh National with coughing I’d be making him the main bet, as it is just a saver.
Sego Success seems to have more scope for improvement, I rated his chances in Cheltenham’s 4 miler last year. Took the staying novice on this course last year under similar conditions and possible this type of ground suits ideally. Unexposed at extreme trips and worth taking a chance the improved form last time was more to do with first time cheek pieces. Stable in good form, as is now Nicholls. Vivaldi Collonges also worth taking a chance on him not needing to race prominently, doesn’t need to lead anyway. Another who disappointed in the 4 miler on less testing ground, but stays on really strongly over lesser distances. Won last time in very testing conditions. What A Good Night is another who’s improved for a switch to Skelton. This race might favour hold up horses. Beat a couple of stayers in Algernon Pazham and Restless Harry over 3m last time, the race run some 42 seconds slower than Racing Post Standard and no race bettered 36 seconds below on the card – very soft/testing. Not run since early November, but runs well fresh.
Value Is EverythingIn a bit of a quandary here, I really fancied the chances of WHAT A GOOD NIGHT,
and I haven’t given up on him yet, but he is facing the heavy ground that I had
hoped he would miss. I was half expecting that Dan Skelton might have pulled
him out this morning, based on the 3 poor rounds he put in when he encountered
heavy going. That was 2+ years ago, and he is a better horse now, but there has
to be a big question mark now.His price has drifted to 16/1, which I would have bitten your hand off for a week
ago (I took 14s), it doesn’t imply a great deal of confidence, but I can’t see Skelton
running him if he thinks he won’t handle the conditions.For better or worse I’ve taken some of the 16s, but for a bit of insurance I’ve
also had a few quid on FOXBRIDGE at 11/1. He will relish the going, have no problem
with the trip, and with Jamie Bargary taking 5 lbs off him he is carrying no weight
at all, which is a definite plus in conditions like these.This is going to be some slog, I reckon no more that 6 will see it through.
Good luck to all
DeKerry man for me. Envious of those on early well done.
Looking for a saver. It’s going to be a slog
Even though it’s been pricewised (kiss of death) and the price is gone I’m taking
Foxbridge. Good luck allThere was a lot of money going on Foxbridge last night so I had a small ew. And I think someone was talking about Dromnea on racing radio and tipped it so I’ve backed that too . But I’d like Liam to win on Houblon to show how good he is in this type of race.
In a bit of a quandary here, I really fancied the chances of WHAT A GOOD NIGHT,
and I haven’t given up on him yet, but he is facing the heavy ground that I had
hoped he would miss. I was half expecting that Dan Skelton might have pulled
him out this morning, based on the 3 poor rounds he put in when he encountered
heavy going. That was 2+ years ago, and he is a better horse now, but there has
to be a big question mark now.His price has drifted to 16/1, which I would have bitten your hand off for a week
ago (I took 14s), it doesn’t imply a great deal of confidence, but I can’t see Skelton
running him if he thinks he won’t handle the conditions.Don’t let the ground put you off Big G, am sure WAGN will act on the heavy. You don’t get times like the card on his last start at Bangor unless it is bottomless. Although there is a question mark on whether he’ll stay the trip on the ground worth a bet at the price. Also, I’d say he’s been pretty steady in the market. Indeed, I took 18/1 last night and now top price 16’s.
Value Is Everything
He’ll come here off 125, and I think he’s miles better than that, so he’s definitely considered.
pleased to see you like Sego.
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