Grand National 2015

Ginger, yes, I think the fences have completely changed the race.

But those wooden cores (don’t know if you ever saw an undressed fence – I have a pic of Becher’s somewhere, will try to find it) made a huge difference. You simply had to be a good jumper to get round. Very occasionally you’d get a lucky one who made ‘the right mistakes’ and got away with it, but I’m talking about 1% of winners at most.

Doubtless there will have been winners who have been regarded as not the best of jumpers on park tracks, but you will find that when they saw those Aintree fences, they sharpened their acts up double quick.

Off course, some will still overjump, stumble, become unbalanced in some way and not complete. But in hitting the fences pretty low, all they’re doing now is brushing through loose spruce. I doubt the subsequent energy loss is any worse than that suffered by a horse who’s had to make the effort to put in a full, fence-clearing jump.

I’m in no doubt whatever it has massively changed the nature of the race.

Spot on.

Eddie the Shoe said this about the National – "Now the fences have been made easier, it’s a lot harder to sort out because bad jumpers can now win".

No better example of that than the last two winners but amazingly Eddie said it in 1998.

It’s certainly true now and I’m afraid Gingertipster is in cloud cuckoo land. You couldn’t fancy either of the last 2 winners before, during or after the race. It’s just a stamina test with jumping ability at an absolute minimum.

While pleased to see the wooden cores go, extremely sad and disappointed to see the fences so soft The race has lost all interest for me and while it was often called a lottery in the past when it wasn’t, it’s certainly the case now.

Spot on.

Eddie the Shoe said this about the National – “Now the fences have been made easier, it’s a lot harder to sort out because bad jumpers can now win”.

No better example of that than the last two winners but amazingly Eddie said it in 1998.

It’s certainly true now and I’m afraid Gingertipster is in cloud cuckoo land. You couldn’t fancy either of the last 2 winners before, during or after the race. It’s just a stamina test with jumping ability at an absolute minimum.

While pleased to see the wooden cores go, extremely sad and disappointed to see the fences so soft The race has lost all interest for me and while it was often called a lottery in the past when it wasn’t, it’s certainly the case now.

Obviously jumping is not quite as important as it used to be Eddie, but it is still an important aspect of the Grand National. Horses can not make more than one or two errors and still win the National and the better a horse jumps the more likely it is to win… Balthazar King was one of the best jumpers in the 40 runners going in to last year’s National, only one horse beat him. The year before Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree were two of the best jumpers in the field, only one horse beat them. Both Aurora’s Encore and Pineau De Re jumped well in the main. As I remember it, Aurora’s Encore making a couple of minor errors and Pineau made one serious error. Just like other years in the past when good jumpers going in to the race have been beaten by one horse who produced a good enough round of jumping and well enough handicapped to win.

All depends on what you call “couldn’t fancy” Eddie. Here is my write up and assessment of Auroras Encore before the 2013 renewal:

35. 137 [b:2upz1vsj]Auroras Encore[/b:2upz1vsj] 11 10-3 Sue Smith OP45F5
Three good runs culminated in excellent head 2nd giving 9 lbs to winner Merigo in Scottish National (4m½f Good) in April last year. Auroras Encore raced up with the pace and looked the winner jumping the last, just caught on line. Now off 6 lbs lower mark. Shown very little in 6 starts this season, last one in March. However, vast majority of Auroras Encore’s best lifetime efforts have come in the Spring, including winning over hurdles at this meeting in 2008. Sometimes can make a mistake and stable haven’t had a winner for some time; but some runners have run well and Auroras Encore’s chance may be underestimated by bookmakers.
Ryan Mania [b:2upz1vsj]2.25% 40/1[/b:2upz1vsj] (28/1)

So I had Aurora’s Encore assessed as a “2.25%” fair 40/1 chance of winning; a 97.75% chance of losing. But @ 66/1 or the 119/1 I took it was (imo) a good value bet.

Here is what I said about last year’s winner before the race:

29. 2713 [b:2upz1vsj]Pineau De Re[/color:2upz1vsj][/b:2upz1vsj] 11 10-6 (143) Dr Richard Newland [b:2upz1vsj]4.75% 20/1[/color:2upz1vsj][/b:2upz1vsj]
Despite now 11 years old, is in form of his life. Possibly due to a new (under-rated) trainer who has made his name by improving older horses he gets from other yards. Won veterans chase (3m soft) penultimate start off a mark 10 lbs lower than today’s. Always travelling well and despite a mistake at the last winning easily, by 5 lengths from Tullmore Dew who he gave 7 lbs. Excellent 3rd last time out in Pertemps Hurdle (3m good) at Cheltenham, off a mark in that sphere of 140. Doing well by coming from further back than the other principles; is always held up for a late run. Could be more to come back over bigger obstacles. This time last year winning Ulster National (3m4f good) by 23 lengths, off a significantly lower Irish mark of 125, on final start for Philip Fenton. That run (distance) suggesting has a fair chance of staying this extreme trip. Fell at 8th in Becher Chase over Grand National fences in December. Leighton Aspell

So my assessment had Pineau De Re as a “4.75%” fair 20/1 chance of winning, a 95.25% chance of losing. I backed him (saver bet) @ 37/1 and was freely available @ 33/1 on the day.

So I couldn’t exactly “fancy” the last two winners either. But thankfully I thought both “value” to win. For me, betting is never about whether I fancy or “couldn’t fancy”, value is everything Eddie.

As you know, I was once a fan of First Lieutenant. Has a chance if coming back to his best, but that is a big IF imo. Got very lazy and doesn’t seem to want to know these days. Although different fences can rekindle enthusiasm of a few, am usually against lazy horses in the National. If unable to race prominently will probably down tools. Not for me even @ 100/1. Best of luck with that one.

Shutthefrontdoor has a great chance Gord. Deserves to be clear favourite. One of the few unexposed horses and as well handicapped as any in the field. Thought he’d get a few more pounds than that, but I took half your price immediately the weights came out! Not beholden to ground conditions and should stay. Only problem I can forsee (if anything) is jumping. Hasn’t always been good but improved in that department the last twice at Fairyhouse and Carlisle. Hopefully he’ll jump as well left-handed. With AP up probably be around 5/1 by the off.

Even if I would win more if others won – will be cheering him on most. Hope he wins for you, me and AP.

Delighted with Rocky Creek today and he’s a best priced 14/1 now. Paul Nicholls said that he felt today was the best nick they have ever had the horse in and I am hoping decent ground on the day will see him last home better.

Don’t think the ground had anything to do with it Steve, wouldn’t let that worry you. Travelled well in 2014 National, jumping well, but lost ground from the last fence and eventually finishing 5th. Am sure as can be it was not through lack of stamina or going. I lost money on him in three races last season, each time finding little under presure. Although he wasn’t hard pushed to win today the impression is he’s a different horse this time around after a pre-season breathing operation. Giving 8 lbs and a 6 lengths beating to Le Reve is a fair improvement in form so is going to be well handicapped at Aintree in a race he’s already run well in. 14/1 is worth considering.

Roi Du Mee posted a very nice success today, yet he’s still available at 80/1 with Ladbrokes!?

Do we know whether he’s due to actually run in the National? I’d be very tempted, myself.

£20 still available @ 129/1 on betfair Peter.

Would the owner have better GN options?

I’ve just added Night in Milan at 50s. Seems to like flat tracks and decent ground, and happy to gamble on him getting the trip.

I’ve just added Night in Milan at 50s. Seems to like flat tracks and decent ground, and happy to gamble on him getting the trip.

Night In Milan and Rocky Creek were my first two picks for this year’s race. Night In Milan made a satisfactory re-appearance behind Grandads Horse when second and then ran well enough in third behind the younger favourite If In Doubt next time, keeping on at one pace fifteen lengths clear of The 4th horse, when giving weight to the first and second. Grandads horse was back in eighth place that day, showing that Night In Milan had reversed the form from their previous meeting by a long way.

My hope is that the National trip will bring about some improvement from Night In Milan and he’s still the 50/1 price he was when I nominated him and Rocky Creek as my first two selections back in October. He’s got a feasible weight and there is an awful lot worse value in the list.

I added Many Clouds to my list and it was nice to hear the owner talking about perhaps running him. I think he’ll start a lot shorter if he does.

I thought about Spring Heeled but decided to wait to see how he went in the Bobbyjo Chase and I wasn’t impressed. I can’t say I’m impressed with Jim Culloty as a trainer and I’m leaving that horse alone now.

I might add one more nearer the time but am happy with the three I have for now. Four horses is the most I ever pick now. Back in the old days I only used to pick one. Through the 80’s and 90’s I had a good record in the race but it’s been stale since the turn of the century apart from a handful of places.

I thought about Spring Heeled but decided to wait to see how he went in the Bobbyjo Chase and I wasn’t impressed. I can’t say I’m impressed with Jim Culloty as a trainer and I’m leaving that horse alone now.

As I said on the Gold Cup thread, I thought Spring Heeled ran a fine race. He’d have hated the ground and I doubt he was anywhere near cherry ripe. He should improve plenty in terms of fitness and for better ground and if I’d fancied him for the National before Saturday I would have been pleased with the run.

The National is not a race that gets me excited to be honest, blasphemous as that may sound. Back In Focus is a horse I’ve always thought had the qualities to run well in the race. He’s had many problems in his career to date but he ran well enough on his return in the Boyne Hurdle. He goes very well through the mud but won at Cheltenham on good to soft so he should be fine on the likely ground. I think he’s well treated off 150.

Could be the ground was against him Tommy but I am having decreasing faith in his trainer with every passing day. Lord Windermere is going to be a big lay for me in The Gold Cup.