Grand National 2015

Ginger, yes, I think the fences have completely changed the race. And, I agree, I’d rather see the race continue this way now rather than being forced into oblivion through too many deaths/injuries.

But those wooden cores (don’t know if you ever saw an undressed fence – I have a pic of Becher’s somewhere, will try to find it) made a huge difference. You simply had to be a good jumper to get round. Very occasionally you’d get a lucky one who made ‘the right mistakes’ and got away with it, but I’m talking about 1% of winners at most.

Doubtless there will have been winners who have been regarded as not the best of jumpers on park tracks, but you will find that when they saw those Aintree fences, they sharpened their acts up double quick.

Off course, some will still overjump, stumble, become unbalanced in some way and not complete. But in hitting the fences pretty low, all they’re doing now is brushing through loose spruce. I doubt the subsequent energy loss is any worse than that suffered by a horse who’s had to make the effort to put in a full, fence-clearing jump.

I’m in no doubt whatever it has massively changed the nature of the race.

I have not changed the way I bet much at all Joe, and yet:

2012: (unfortunately bottled it and conned in to backing soft ground horses with adverse (wrong) going/weather reports week before the race, without which would not have backed three or four of the also rans). Backed 15 horses in all including: 1st Neptune Collonges, 2nd Sunnyhill Boy, 4th Cappa Bleu, 6th Ballabriggs.

2013 Backed 10 horses including: 1st Auroras Encore, 2nd Cappa Bleu, 3rd Teaforthree, 8th Tarquinius.

2014 Backed 12 horses (11 that ran) including: 1st Pineau De Re (sadly only a saver), 2nd Balthazar King, 5th Rocky Creek, 6th Chance Du Roy, 7th Monbeg Dude, 9th Swing Bill.

So for me, although less horses will fall the race has not changed significantly as far as things to allow for in working the race out as a betting proposition. Will continue until results change.

2015 so far backed: Teaforthree 25/1 and 37/1, Shutthefrontdoor 12/1, Balthazar King 25/1, The Druids Nephew 50/1, there’s a couple of others will probably be in for shortly; one before he runs at the weekend, one after it runs at the weekend.

Ginger, am pretty sure 2013 was the first running over all new fences.

I usually back at least half a dozen myself, and in the past have bet some horses with a pretty high degree of confidence, and for a few quid. But it will be just ‘fun’ bets from here on in.

I think there will be many fewer winners now up to around the 16/1 mark. Since the 1994 running, only 8 winners have been higher than 16s, 3 of those in the last 3 runnings.

In that period 3 favs and two joint favs won…those days too will be gone until and unless some other GN ‘type’ establishes itself…imo, of course.

I read today that Trevor Hemmings is thinking about going to Aintree with Many Clouds after he runs in the Gold Cup. Obviously I hope that’s true.

The horse seems a hell of a price at 40/1 with Sky Bet and would you really want to be taking Shutthefrontdoor at quarter of those odds?

Ginger, am pretty sure 2013 was the first running over all new fences.

I usually back at least half a dozen myself, and in the past have bet some horses with a pretty high degree of confidence, and for a few quid. But it will be just ‘fun’ bets from here on in.

I think there will be many fewer winners now up to around the 16/1 mark. Since the 1994 running, only 8 winners have been higher than 16s, 3 of those in the last 3 runnings.

In that period 3 favs and two joint favs won…those days too will be gone until and unless some other GN ‘type’ establishes itself…imo, of course.

2013 was indeed the first to have all (or vast majority) of new fences. Which is why I gave 2012, ie the way I work the race out has not changed much and yet (I know it’s only a small sample but) am still successful.

Those sort of prices and frequencey are what I’d expect of a 40 runner Grand National Joe. And (as you might expect from my bets) imo those “last three runnings” were over-priced (should not have been so big). So SP’s of the “last three runnings” give a false impression of how hard it is to pick the winner.

My 100% book (in my Daily Lays And Plays thread) for 2012 had Neptune Collonges as a fair 18/1 shot, so adding a bookmakers type mark up (1.5%) would’ve been around 14/1, not 33/1 of bookie SP.

I had Aurora’s Encore in my 100% book as a fair 40/1 shot, so adding a mark up (1%) should’ve been around 28/1, not 66/1 of bookies SP.

Last year I had Pineau De Re priced up as a fair 20/1 shot, so adding a mark up (1.5%) again comes to around 15/1, not 25/1 of bookies SP.

So two of the last three winners form (imo before the race) should have started at below your 16/1 mark Joe and the other one should have been 28/1 not 66’s.

No firms going NRNB yet Joe.

Thanks, Bobby

Not a lot of comfort to his backers though and I’m finding it hard to take anything bar negativity from that effort.

May I assume you are on at 25/1 Mark? It sounds that way

Why is it “not a lot of comfort” Steve? What possible negativity is there? When a horse runs just 8 days on from his first start in 9 1/2 months, in a blatant attempt to qualify for another race, obvious hadn’t recovered from the first run… Then there is no “negativity” or positivity; you can totally forget the run as if it did not exist (unless running similarly close to the Grand National, and that won’t happen).

Yes, am on @ 25/1 and might go in again depending on his handicap mark. But he won’t be the only horse I back.

I am talking about the backers who were on when he was beaten at odds on Mark, not those who might have him for the National. It can be little consolation that they were running the horse to qualify for another race and didn’t give a monkeys whether the horse was fit to race again so soon.

Anyway his odds lengthened for the National, so bookies must disagree that we should erase the run from our memory banks.

The horse won an egg and spoon race at Bangor and was a no show at odds on next time. I may well end up with egg on my face but I’m writing him off.

Becher’s

Before

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After

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The new fence is the one used by many trainers as schooling fences

I will never understand why they don’t simply have regular park fences dressed up in spruce as opposed to those fixed brush (or rather hair brush) cores. At least give the challenge they face at courses such as Cheltenham and Chepstow and “spruce” it up if you will. Instead they’re faced with fences that may be genuinely the easiest to negotiate in Britain and Ireland.

Completely agree the old solid core’s had to go but the new core’s (based on Joe’s photo’s) appear a fair few inches lower then the old ones.

Personally my preference would have been for regular birch for the cores (which I believe is used for the open ditches, with the plastic birch used for the “plain” fences.)

Agree with other posters that the modern National is borderline impossible. Long gone are the days where I would write off 75% of the field as no hopers. That figure is now more like 10-15%!

Not bet yet (I’m generally a “mug” who only gets involved in the week before) but I’m currently keeping an eye on Godsmejudge, First Lieutenant, Alvarado & The Druids Nephew.

Wonder if we are due a heavy ground National – been a while now…

I am talking about the backers who were on when he was beaten at odds on Mark, not those who might have him for the National. It can be little consolation that they were running the horse to qualify for another race and didn’t give a monkeys whether the horse was fit to race again so soon.

Anyway his odds lengthened for the National, so bookies must disagree that we should erase the run from our memory banks.

The horse won an egg and spoon race at Bangor and was a no show at odds on next time. I may well end up with egg on my face but I’m writing him off.

Teaforthree had by far the best form Steve, but every punter knew the horse had raced just 8 days ago. Am sure connections would’ve liked to win, but Teaforthree had never reappeared so quick before and this after his first run of the season. Highly unlikely connections would’ve chosen this race, but also thought he’d recovered in time. Until a horse runs nobody can be certain. Information about qualifying for Cheltenham widely known; so punters backing Teaforthree at Bangor presumably thought the risks worth taking.

25/1 to 33/1 means bookmakers only believe Teaforthree has a 1% less chance in the Grand National than they did before the supposedly disappointing performance. So nothing really.

Last year Teaforthree started joint favourite @ 10/1. He’s now off a 5 lbs lower mark of 144, 7 lbs lower than when 4th in 2013. There’s always a possibility of the 11 year old no longer being capable of that form; but it’s only a year ago he’d finished neck second off 149 in a competitive Ascot 3m handicap. Giving the winner Restless Harry 8 lbs; who went on to finish 3 1/2 lengths 4th in Bet365 Gold Cup off a 5 lbs higher mark.

Teaforthree has only run twice since that unseat as Grand National favourite. Admittedly not needing to be anywhere near his best when winning a Bangor (“egg and spoon”) hunter chase. But I did not expect him to win anyway. The fact it was over a wholly inadequate 2m4f110yrds suggests he’s capable of much better returned to further. The 8 days break enough of an excuse last time.

Is Teaforthree still capable of the form of last February? He’s 11 years old so probably not. But there’s not much evidence of it so far. For sure should not be favourite this year, but he’s available @ 33/1.

I suppose I’ve never warmed to Teaforthree as much as some people have.

I have seen him described as “That popular Chaser” but I believe that as much of his appeal, if not all of it, is that he’s got a catchy name that people can readily identify with.

Looking at his form he’s now got five wins:- A Novice Hurdle, Two Novice Chases, The 4 mile amateur riders Novice Chase at Cheltenham and now the Bangor Hunter Chase.

The Cheltenham race was by far his biggest pot of money won and also his biggest winning SP. You couldn’t really call him the punters pal, but he has had notable places in The Welsh National and The Grand National.

I thought he went off skinny enough last year in the National and his Hunter Chase win was his first win for 35 months. He looks a horse on the wane for me and I’ll be moderately shocked if he is in the first six this year.