Grand National 2015

Can’t understand the negativity on this thread about picking the winner. Grand National is the easiest race in the calendar to make a profit. Such outstanding value year after year. Of course it is not possible to get the winner every year, but the odds make it pretty easy to win enough times to make a profit from the race. It’s full of horses with dodgy – temperaments, jumping, stamina, wrong time of year or going requirements.

I’d have been with you all the way on that before they removed the stiff fence cores. The only effect the fences will now have on horses is the visual ‘fright’, which will still bring casualties.

But the fences are probably now the softest in the country. Witness the number of horses going through them at hurdle height with little, if any, momentum loss.

I’m fairly confident we’ll be back to the old days to a large extent, where strongly fancied winners will become the exception, and the 33s and upwards will dominate. The fast pace will beat many. Some horses will be inspired by finding that the fences hold few fears, and they’ll relish the level ground and unusual track shape as well as the atmosphere. You’ll find horses running way above their form for probably the only time in their lives.

It’s not the race it was, but the coming decade should be fascinating as we try to figure out a new ‘type’ for the National.

Amazed to find that the horse I’ve already backed, Trustan Times, didn’t even get an entry!

I’ve taken some 80s about Carlito Brigante, and 110 about My Murphy

I posted at the time the entries came out that he hadn’t been entered Joe. A lesser man might have said "I told you" but not a Gent of my standing

I should have checked, Steve. I bet him after seeing him tipped on one of the pro sites – can’t recall if it was ATR or Timeform or something – and simply assumed from that he’d be running. He ran on Saturday in the GN trial at Haydock.

Oh well, still living and learning, even at my age

Still, it’s true that there are some right old donkeys you can rule out in the search for profit.

That old plodder Teaforthree for starters

Can’t understand the negativity on this thread about picking the winner. Grand National is the easiest race in the calendar to make a profit. Such outstanding value year after year. Of course it is not possible to get the winner every year, but the odds make it pretty easy to win enough times to make a profit from the race. It’s full of horses with dodgy – temperaments, jumping, stamina, wrong time of year or going requirements.

I’d have been with you all the way on that before they removed the stiff fence cores. The only effect the fences will now have on horses is the visual ‘fright’, which will still bring casualties.

But the fences are probably now the softest in the country. Witness the number of horses going through them at hurdle height with little, if any, momentum loss.

I’m fairly confident we’ll be back to the old days to a large extent, where strongly fancied winners will become the exception, and the 33s and upwards will dominate. The fast pace will beat many. Some horses will be inspired by finding that the fences hold few fears, and they’ll relish the level ground and unusual track shape as well as the atmosphere. You’ll find horses running way above their form for probably the only time in their lives.

It’s not the race it was, but the coming decade should be fascinating as we try to figure out a new ‘type’ for the National.

Do you really think it’s changed that much Joe?

When taking off the probable bookmakers mark up, and then adding all the 25/1+ horses up, their combined odds are very often (in fair odds terms) around 7/4. Or if not deducting the mark up… adding the 25/1+ figures up comes to around 50% of the bookmakers 150% book. So the chances of any big priced Grand National winner is quite short (if you see what I mean) because of the number of outsiders racing.

The fences are softer, agreed, a horse can make one fairly big error and get away with it; as Pineau De Re did last year. But imo you still need a basically good jumper. The less errors a horse makes the less energy it loses. Poor jumpers like The Rainbow Hunter, Hadrian’s Approach and Shotgun Paddy can still be opposed imo. With good jumpers like Godsmejudge and Balthazar King still having a sizable advantage (although not quite as big a one as before).

I am all for these changes. Rather see horses make mistakes and lose energy, eventually finishing behind or pulling up… than making a mistake and falling, with possible injury or fatality.

There’s always been specialist "Aintree horses", thats never changed throughout the last 50+ years.

The National has often been thought of as an out and out stayers race; that is as wrong now and it was wrong 10, 15, 20 years ago. The Aintree ideal is imo a horse with enough speed to win at 3m2f. Only when it gets very soft do you want a one paced plodder. Despite being almost 3/4 mile shorter, the Welsh National is a more severe test of stamina than Aintree. Even when Aintree was half a furlong further than it is now… good or good-soft Aintree Nationals are usually run at a faster average speed than a heavy ground Welsh Grand National. Albeit the Scottish Grand National is often run on similar ground, so the same horses tend to do well at Aintree as Ayr (as long as they can jump).

Unless a heavy ground Welsh/Eider/Midlands/Haydock National winner/placed horse has performed well at 3m2f or less – I tend to be against them; as well as tending to be against such horses if not performing well on good or good-soft. On the other hand, am less inclined to dismiss so called "soft ground" horses who have not run over marathon trips. Because sometimes they’ve needed soft ground at 3m2f to bring stamina in to play. When racing at 4m3f110yrds they sometimes no longer need that soft ground to produce their best. Although if the horse has a pronounced rounded action I would think twice.

Ginger, yes, I think the fences have completely changed the race. And, I agree, I’d rather see the race continue this way now rather than being forced into oblivion through too many deaths/injuries.

But those wooden cores (don’t know if you ever saw an undressed fence – I have a pic of Becher’s somewhere, will try to find it) made a huge difference. You simply had to be a good jumper to get round. Very occasionally you’d get a lucky one who made ‘the right mistakes’ and got away with it, but I’m talking about 1% of winners at most.

Doubtless there will have been winners who have been regarded as not the best of jumpers on park tracks, but you will find that when they saw those Aintree fences, they sharpened their acts up double quick.

Off course, some will still overjump, stumble, become unbalanced in some way and not complete. But in hitting the fences pretty low, all they’re doing now is brushing through loose spruce. I doubt the subsequent energy loss is any worse than that suffered by a horse who’s had to make the effort to put in a full, fence-clearing jump.

I’m in no doubt whatever it has massively changed the nature of the race.

Becher’s

Before

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After

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The new fence is the one used by many trainers as schooling fences

1996/97 Though the stakes remained in place until they trialled the plastic in two or three fences at the Becher Meeting, what, a couple of seasons back? Then redid all the fences.

I’ve nearly always made a profit on the race, albeit a small one because I only bet small. My worst year was Don’t Push It’s because I couldn’t convince myself that he wasn’t still a 2 mile speed horse. But I didn’t mind because I was so chuffed for McCoy. It was a very easy race years ago and I used to get winners and placed horses without having to back half the field. I’ve already had lots of 10 pence ew bets on big priced horses to cover my stake money . However, these days my main aim is to back a horse ante post and then see it get into the race; anything else is a bonus. To me, it’s a neverendingjourney, watching the horses develop from hurdlers and going through the ranks. It may be more difficult to get the winner these days with the compression of the handicap but it’s far more fascinating.