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Really like the horse Danny, and he’s been pretty good to me. Might be a tad high in the weights as you say, but he’d maybe be a possible if things didn’t go to plan at Cheltenham.
Teaforthree won a hunter chase today, it wasn’t up to his best form – but over such an inadequate trip got to be seen as very promising. 25/1 worth taking imo.
Very poor effort from Teaforthree today though. He finished behind a horse rated 37 lbs lower in 4th, with a couple of old cuddys ahead as well.
At Fisher’s Cross was a big disappointment for the stable as well today but he’s had his problems of late and I don’t think you could put it down to stable form, as they had 7 winners last months and 3 this month, operating at 28% and 27% strike rates respectively.
Pushed out by several firms to 33/1 for Aintree now, he just doesn’t appeal to me.
Has a good excuse. With 10 months off before the reappearance and only 8 days to the second run – race came too soon, bounced.
If it puts connections off running at Cheltenham then it is a plus for Teaforthree’s Aintree chances.Value Is EverythingAny thoughts on Carlingford Lough?
Quite keen on him for this, don’t think hes quite good enough to win a Gold Cup but the worry would be the weight he is likely to get sure he was quite high last year ….
Doubtful runner for me Danny.
119/1 on betfair about something @ top price 40/1 with bookmakers, tells you how likely a horse is to run. imo Unlikely unless owner companion Shutthefrontdoor is an absentee. Does not jump well enough either.Value Is EverythingTeaforthree won a hunter chase today, it wasn’t up to his best form – but over such an inadequate trip got to be seen as very promising. 25/1 worth taking imo.
Very poor effort from Teaforthree today though. He finished behind a horse rated 37 lbs lower in 4th, with a couple of old cuddys ahead as well.
At Fisher’s Cross was a big disappointment for the stable as well today but he’s had his problems of late and I don’t think you could put it down to stable form, as they had 7 winners last months and 3 this month, operating at 28% and 27% strike rates respectively.
Pushed out by several firms to 33/1 for Aintree now, he just doesn’t appeal to me.
Has a good excuse. With 10 months off before the reappearance and only 8 days to the second run – race came too soon, bounced.
If it puts connections off running at Cheltenham then it is a plus for Teaforthree’s Aintree chances.Not a lot of comfort to his backers though and I’m finding it hard to take anything bar negativity from that effort.
May I assume you are on at 25/1 Mark? It sounds that way
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not a lot of comfort to his backers though and I’m finding it hard to take anything bar negativity from that effort.
May I assume you are on at 25/1 Mark? It sounds that way
Why is it “not a lot of comfort” Steve? What possible negativity is there? When a horse runs just 8 days on from his first start in 9 1/2 months, in a blatant attempt to qualify for another race, obvious hadn’t recovered from the first run… Then there is no “negativity” or positivity; you can totally forget the run as if it did not exist (unless running similarly close to the Grand National, and that won’t happen).
Yes, am on @ 25/1 and might go in again depending on his handicap mark. But he won’t be the only horse I back.
Value Is EverythingOn a positive note, it was a bright enough comeback from Back In Focus in the Boyne Hurdle. He had enough zip to tow them along for more than a circuit despite looking quite chunky pre-race, so I’m well pleased with that.
I have a habit of backing seldom-seen crocks in the Grand National and fully expect Back In Focus to take over anticlimax duties from Beshabar, but I keep the faith.
I’ve never backed a Grand National winner despite picking one or betting in every race since 1999. Will this be my year?
Weights just published
Timeform ratings
On a positive note, it was a bright enough comeback from Back In Focus in the Boyne Hurdle. He had enough zip to tow them along for more than a circuit despite looking quite chunky pre-race, so I’m well pleased with that.
I have a habit of backing seldom-seen crocks in the Grand National and fully expect Back In Focus to take over anticlimax duties from Beshabar, but I keep the faith.
I’ve never backed a Grand National winner despite picking one or betting in every race since 1999. Will this be my year?
Just hope you don’t beat my record TYF. Picked or bet one every year from 1980ish to 2002 inclusive before finally managing to find Monty’s Pass in 2003. Only backed MP because I’d been to Listowel for the first time September before and saw him win the Kerry National. Didn’t follow racing as much before then and missed Papillon, ridden by my now favourite Ruby Walsh who to me back then was Ruby Who? and then the next year Red Marauder
2003 was the first time I picked more than one horse (2) and now usually back 4. Have had the winner in 2005,2006 and 2012 since plus a number of placings. Good luck TYF and I think BIF will be one of my picks, especially if Ruby rides.Thanks Homer – I certainly won’t give up!
I’ve had Black Apalachi, Double Seven, Clan Royal and Call It A Day for some near misses, so I feel like my turn is near.
In this year’s race, it feels as though Pineau De Re has been treated a little more charitably than many previous winners looking to defend their title. Anyone else get this impression?
Which horse will go off top weight on the day?
There seems to be a few who will be doubtful amongst the top weights. I could see Unioniste carrying top weight and that might be no easy task for the horse all Coneygree fans will be hoping is a good yardstick for their up and coming hero.
I’m reasonably satisfied with Night In Milan with 10-09 and he’s probably going to be my best shot.
Shutthefrontdoor on 11-02 seems fair enough but his odds look ridiculous to me. He could go off one of the shortest favourites ever with the AP hype factored in but unless you are backing to lay you are going to be sitting there with a ticket that represents Grim Whitman value. Maybe after the race well have to rename the horse:-
Openthebackdoor to describe the odds/performance ratio.
Springheeled is a Cheltenham winner who ran 4th, nearly got up for 3rd in The Galway Plate won by Road To Riches last July. The winner has obviously advertised that form and the 7th Caid Du Berlais won The Paddy Power. Entered up in The Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on Saturday, I am hoping that Springheeled can win that and be a realistic Grand National contender off 10-12. He’s lightly raced, looks like he’s been prepared for it and at 25/1 he makes more appeal to me than some of the old cuddies.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Amazed to find that the horse I’ve already backed, Trustan Times, didn’t even get an entry!
I’ve taken some 80s about Carlito Brigante, and 110 about My Murphy
I bet Trustan the Monday after last years race Joe, before he went to Ayr for The Scottish National. He was a strong fancy, and I just took it for granted he’d be going. I’m consoling myself with the fact he’s had a poor start to the season, but still….
I’d mainly on Cause of Causes now, and I’m confident that he’ll be the best of these, but I’m just terrified that Nina Carberry gets the ride.
Of those I haven’t bet, Night In Milan, and Wyck Hill look pretty solid, but they’ve never been a price that would appeal to me on Betfair. That would certainly apply also to Shutthefrontdoor. In fact if the weights stayed the same, I’d be struggling to pick out one single reason for not betting STFD.
Cause Of Causes 130’s
Alderwood 330’s to 340’s
Broadway Buffalo 580’s to 600’s
Burton Port 110’s to 130’s
Ely Brown 160’s to 280’s
The Package 400’s to 420’s
Vintage Star 280’s to 310’sCan’t understand the negativity on this thread about picking the winner. Grand National is the easiest race in the calendar to make a profit. Such outstanding value year after year. Of course it is not possible to get the winner every year, but the odds make it pretty easy to win enough times to make a profit from the race. It’s full of horses with dodgy – temperaments, jumping, stamina, wrong time of year or going requirements.
Value Is EverythingAn early interest for me is Across The Bay at 66/1. Seems to run the course well and was unlucky last year when seeming to be enjoying himself travelling and jumping well till it got carried out.If it came up soft or worse then he could run a big race.
What negativity GT????
Just a few guys having a lighthearted dig at themselves for not finding the winner. I’ve made a healthy profit on it the last few years on Betfair building my own book, but we were talking about, in reality, picking just the one out to win it, and it’s much more fun to have a dig at yourself anyway.
I think until recent years, it was widely accepted, that for a race of 40 runners, it was still, relatively speaking one of the easiest races to find the winner.
Your post suggests that you see yourself as the font of all knowledge when it comes to these things.
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