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Ginger, I think this is one we are going to have to agree to disagree on. Of course good jumpers – perhaps the best – are getting round – but so are many whose jumping – like that – would not survive a single other course in the country.
If you recorded all the CH4 stuff, have look at the rerun and watch from that low camera angle…many horses are lifting their front ends well enough but their back end is travelling through the fence, sometimes as low as a foot or so from the ground.
I am not complaining – it was a trade-off that was essential – but the best jumpers no longer have sufficient advantage over the others as to merit a confident bet imo.
Fair enough Joe but this might be of interest to you:
In the 85/86 Timeform Chasers And Hurdlers Maori Venture was rated with an "X" for"moderate or sketchy jumper"
. He went on to win the 1987 Grand National with the write up of 86/87 Chasers And Hurdlers stating…
"The idea that horses can not take liberties with the Grand National fences without falling may have to be revised in the light of Maori Venture’s success. Perhaps the National fences aren’t so formidable nowadays as they used to be even up to a few years ago. At any rate we can’t recall a horse jumping worse and winning the National. Maori Venture’s moderate jumping technique resulted in a shaky display which contained a number of mistakes, including at first Becher’s where he recovered cleverly after being on his nose, at the first fence on the second circuit, at second Valentine’s. Jumping contrasted with another newcomer to the National course Lean Ar Aghaidh whose performance in taking third, carrying 8 lbs more than his long handicap weight and ridden by a conditional jockey unable to claim his allowance, earned him a share of the glory. The bold jumping Lean Ar Aghaidh disputed the lead nearly all the way".
Poor jumpers have always won a few Grand Nationals and Pineau De Ree isn’t that poor. As Lean Ar Aghaidh and Balthazar King suggest, imo it is an advantage to jump well, but that doesn’t mean one of the many horses that don’t jump as well won’t beat a good jumper if it has enough in hand of the handicapper. An easier course may even mean jumping is at an even bigger advantage because they are going faster; with mistakes taking time to recover from.Value Is EverythingJust a footnote on tipping for the race. Peter Scudamore tipped one five star selection, six four star selections and twenty three three star selections. That gave a total of thirty of the forty runners who were rated place prospects or better on his rating scale. He really stuck his neck out and gave ONE horse one star, as a no hoper.
That really thinned the field out for me and I had thirty each way bets before laying that cuddy Golan Way.
Do the Daily Mail pay for this sage advice?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I know we are not going to agree on this, you see the race in a different light to me. I don’t think Maloney had the opportunity to keep with them, I don’t think the horse had the extra gear to go with them. You are right that he beat Knockara Beau, but that was over 3m2f, this is a completely different case when the horse has traveled about 4 miles at this point in the race. I don’t think Maloney chose to let him get further behind, I don’t think he had any option. What he did do was keep his horse up to his work and didn’t down tools at any time.
If you observe the vast majority of Mr Moloney’s Grand Nationals, he rides his horses with the same tactics i.e. held up, slowly making ground but still always many lengths behind approaching the last fence.
Horses that go closest to winning the National are the ones who’re in contention at the last fence or are within close proximity of the leaders after the home turn. For me, Alvarado still has a bit of improvement left in him but if I’m gonna back him next year, I’d need to see a change of jockey riding him
Of course we aren’t going to agree on this matter but I still respect your opinion
I know we are not going to agree on this, you see the race in a different light to me. I don’t think Maloney had the opportunity to keep with them, I don’t think the horse had the extra gear to go with them. You are right that he beat Knockara Beau, but that was over 3m2f, this is a completely different case when the horse has traveled about 4 miles at this point in the race. I don’t think Maloney chose to let him get further behind, I don’t think he had any option. What he did do was keep his horse up to his work and didn’t down tools at any time.
If you observe the vast majority of Mr Moloney’s Grand Nationals, he rides his horses with the same tactics i.e. held up, slowly making ground but still always many lengths behind approaching the last fence.
Horses that go closest to winning the National are the ones who’re in contention at the last fence or are within close proximity of the leaders after the home turn. For me, Alvarado still has a bit of improvement left in him but if I’m gonna back him next year, I’d need to see a change of jockey riding him
Of course we aren’t going to agree on this matter but I still respect your opinion
It would be a boring old sport if we all held the same opinion Rob, nothing like a good post mortem when the dust has settled.
I agree that Alvarado has some improvement in him, and at 9 years of age the next couple of years are probably his best chance in the National, the last five winners all being 10 or 11 years old and 7 out the last 10 runnings having produced winners of that age.
I doubt you will be backing him next year then Rob, if he makes it that is, as I would put a few quid on my pal Mr Maloney being in the saddle again
I am definitely thinking about changing tack and backing confirmed stayers rather than reliable jumpers in future, which I thought I’d done this year (although 3 of the 4 fell
). I took the 16/1 Ladbrokes offered on T43 as I thought he would be thereabouts at the finish and would at least get a run for my money. I didn’t totally discount PDR but the jumping aspect did put me off in the end.What about D7
He must be a future National chance at only 8 years old. And possibly keep AP in the saddle 3 or 4 more years if the horse retains health and ability.- Total Posts 764
Across The Bay was my only bet in the race
, found it a disappointing National.Across The Bay was my only bet in the race
, found it a disappointing National.You think that’s bad Ben, I had two ante post bets running, Across The Bay and Tidal Bay. Tidal Bay, who was running a nice race, was brought down by a rag, but to add insult to injury for me, the riderless Tidal Bay is the one that takes Across The Bay out !!!!!!!!!!
Talk about lucky white heather
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