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The entries have been published today, and with the race a good few weeks away, difficult to take a strong view on it. There’s also the small matter of The Hennessy, and The Becher Chase to come.
Last years winner, Monbeg Dude, is a surprising absentee, though runner up, Teaforthree is bound to be a popular choice, although his best may be seen at Aintree. Last years 3rd, Triggerman, is also entered, though he’s never looked like repeating that performance. Was on him at big prices last year, and was excited for a while………I may just have to have a small go on him again, though in all reality he’s hard to make a case for. I’ll decide nearer the time.
I thought earlier in the year that the Gigginstown owned, Panther Claw would be ideal for this, and very encouraged to see him entered, I’ll probably know more after The Troytown on Sunday. He would certainly my main hope at the moment.
I also have a fancy for him with an eye to Aintree, along with another entry, Tour Des Champs. A longstanding favourite of mine, I had Chepstow in mind as part of his Aintree campaign, and thought him an obvious candidate for this, but this has been tempered by his running at Cheltenham on Saturday, where he never went a yard, and the NTD stable did not have the best of meetings.
Two horses who have ran well recently, are Handy Andy, and Midnight Appeal. Both ground out really well earned victories, showing the kind of attributes needed for this test.
As usual, some of JP’s are given a shout. Alfie Sherrin is a horse who I think is currently a bit overpriced for Aintree, and would be no surprise to see him land this en route to big runs, at both Cheltenham and Aintree. Storm Survivor caught the eye during the summer, and if handling the heavier winter ground, can’t be totally ruled out.
Both of those are trained by Jonjo, and I have a suspicion that he may have Merry King in mind for a Hennessy/Welsh National double…..he certainly has the potential.
Tidal Bay is entered, and he wouldn’t be ruled out, would be an immensely popular winner. Stranger things have happened. His stablemate, Sam Winner is, in my opinion, the most interesting entry, and the type who could very well, go off favourite.
Others worth mentioning, at this early stage are the promising Irish stayer, Gonnyella, as well as the Venetia Williams pair, Ballyoliver, and Yellow Ball. Goonyella continues to slip under the radar, but rarely runs a bad one. Ballyoliver is sure to land a big one some day, though would have to step up on his last run at Wincanton, and Yellow Ball, is a very interesting French Recruit.
Godmejudge, slightly disappointed at Cheltenham, but I’m willing to forgive, and he remains of some interest this season.
Final word, for the timebeing, goes to Silver By Nature. A big run at Haydock on Saturday would see him firmly in the picture for this.
Excellent write up as always VTC
Others worth mentioning, at this early stage are the promising Irish stayer,
Gonnyella
This one interests me, as you might have guessed! I’ll most likely back him in the Troytown and see how he goes there before considering his chances for this.
Cheers THM,
really like him, though managed to spell his name rong
he’s a horse with bags of potential. Forgiving him his run at Fairyhouse, he’s been a model of consistency, and thought he was going to nick it last time.I see he’s entered up for The Troytown on Sunday, if most of em stand their ground, should be some race.
We’re the Goonys !!
I like him too but think he could benefit from stronger handling later in races. Thought he should have won at Galway l.t.o
Surely one for Cheltenham and Aintree this season.
Loch Ba is interesting at 25-1. Looks the type.
I was going to have an ew on Ballyoliver who had a bit of a pipe openener the other week. Hope Liam rides. Just going to check his price. Hadn’t realised he’d left Kim Bailey.
Teaforthree and Highland Lodge; hoping the latter misses the Hennessy. He can’t win anyway with Our Father running.
Hey Big Spender for me, last season wasn’t his best but has all the hallmarks of the Welsh National winner for me, bold jumper, strong stayer. Teaforfree is an obvious choice but was been found wanting at the business end of races last season. Silver By Nature ran a stormer at the weekend and would be another for the shortlist.
Thought Goonyella ran a nice enough race in the Troytown. He was flat out with about half a mile to run, but ran on well at the one pace in fifth. The ground would have been too quick and the trip too short for my money. Jim Dreaper won this a few years back with Notre Pere so I think he’ll be tempted to come here instead having a crack at the Paddy Power Chase.
I quite strongly fancy old Tidal Bay, top weight and all. He might not win as easily as Carville’s Hill, but he’s still very classy, isn’t he?
Silver By Nature ran a stormer at the weekend and would be another for the shortlist.
An old favourite and would have a chance however I’m not sure it could turn around the form with Sydney Paget if that one turns out. I would be more interested in Lucinda Russel’s other entry Nuts N Bolts who won nicely FTO at Haydock. Soft ground would be a must but seems to be progressing the right way. Others of interest at present would be Storm Survivor who I fancied for his recent race at Aintree and Well Refreshed. The latter is not the most fluent of jumpers but if it comes up soft looks certain to be in the shake up
TOUR DES CHAMPS 25/1 is horse i like for race. a slog in mud is what he needs got to improve jumping if he does he go close.
Of the two possible Lucinda Russell contenders I’d favour Silver By Nature over Nuts N’ Bolts. His second at Haydock over a distance short of his ideal was very encoruaging The forecast rain suggests this race will became and all out stamina test and that’s just up his street.
That aside it’s nice to see my local stable having two serious contenders for this race.
One note of caution is that options are being kept open for both horses.
Rob
Of the two possible Lucinda Russell contenders I’d favour Silver By Nature over Nuts N’ Bolts. His second at Haydock over a distance short of his ideal was very encoruaging The forecast rain suggests this race will became and all out stamina test and that’s just up his street.
That aside it’s nice to see my local stable having two serious contenders for this race.
One note of caution is that options are being kept open for both horses.
Rob
Silver By Nature died at the weekend.
With all this rain in Wales I wonder if the meeting will go ahead and will be a tough test in heavy ground if it does
There’s a few down the bottom of the handicap that have are now of interest. Mountainous is one. I remember backing old L’Aventure the year Nicholls’ horses came first and second. Something once paced but with bottomless reserves of stamina often gets a place here.
At 30 on Betfair, I’m happy to take a chance that Hey Big Spender will make it a memorable week for the Tizzards by following up Cue Card’s King George victory
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