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Been looking through the entries for this and On His Own is definitely the most likely winner for me. However, one I think is overpriced is Tom Taaffe’s
Ninetieth Minute
, who ran a nice race behind the same owners Treacle last time out. He hasn’t got the greatest jumping record but at 100/1 with Bet Victor I think he might be worth an interest.
Been looking through the entries for this and On His Own is definitely the most likely winner for me. However, one I think is overpriced is Tom Taaffe’s
Ninetieth Minute
, who ran a nice race behind the same owners Treacle last time out. He hasn’t got the greatest jumping record but at 100/1 with Bet Victor I think he might be worth an interest.
Thanks for the recommendation. I took a look at him. There’d be worse bets than EW 6 places at 100s. As mentioned earlier, I normally prefer backing a handful of horses win only, but yours looks the type who might well run on into a place.
First thing that struck me on watching a few of his races was his quirky head and tail carriage, especially the tail. He seems a very honest horse though, but one where a sympathetic jockey would get the best out of him. McNamara did well last time on him till he drew his whip at which point the horse seemed to fold.
On the downside, he doesn’t seem that brave – he took a few bumps in that big field behind Colbert Station which seemed to unsettle him. Still, he kept on from a very long way back.
He’s a careful jumper who tries to look after himself, so he’ll either pick his way nicely round Aintree or decide early it ain’t for him.
If he survives the first circuit, I’d say you’d have every chance of landing place money and if there’s to be another Mon Mome, well …
Interesting that on his only run outside Ireland he won at the Cheltenham festival, landing the Coral Cup off a mark of 140 in 2009.
Good luck
JoeThanks for the reply Joe. I fancied him to run a big race in the Irish National last year, when he was a well supported 10/1 shot, but he fell before the race began in earnest. What surprises me is his price in comparison to Treacle. He was 4 lengths behind that one last time out, while he’ll be in receipt of 6 lbs in the Grand national, yet he’s three times the price. There might not be much between them.
I’m looking to place a £5 (£10) EW bet this year on that amazing Bet Victor deal – 6 places.
Any suggestions for a good value horse? I was thinking TeaforThree, but that would pay little if it placed
Romanesco (Dont know if will get in with lots that need to come out)
Liked the Kim Muir run but as an 8yr old maybe 1 year too soon?Lion Na Bearnai – fits the profile to do well.
Beau, in case you’re planning a bet shortly, Romanesco is entered up at Fairyhouse on Mondays, and Lion Na Bearnai is only 50/50 to be fit.
Also Lion Na Bearnai is out.
Is that true SJ?
Looks like Lion Na Bearnai is being shortened in the market. 50/1 with a non-runner-no-bet concession looks tempting.Value Is EverythingAt least my Tofino Bay dilemma seems to have been resolved. I did go out to back him last week when I was beginning to think the trainer had changed his mind, but [senior moment] backed Beshabar instead [the day before he pulled out]. If someone put a bullet to my head and said ‘give me the winner of the race’ I think I’d just ask them to pull the trigger. The closer the race gets the more confused I become….
I’m looking to place a £5 (£10) EW bet this year on that amazing Bet Victor deal – 6 places.
Any suggestions for a good value horse? I was thinking TeaforThree, but that would pay little if it placed
THM@s recommendation, Ninetieth Minute has been cut to 66s with Betvictor, but you might want to consider him. Also worth consideration is Soll at 40/1. He might just about get in – if he doesn’t you get your money back.
Quel Esprit is a classy horse (1 Grade 1 and 2 Grade 3 wins), he’s 33s
Good luck
JoeI’m looking to place a £5 (£10) EW bet this year on that amazing Bet Victor deal – 6 places.
Any suggestions for a good value horse? I was thinking TeaforThree, but that would pay little if it placed
I’m already on Teaforthree @ 20/1 Patrick
(and Cappa Bleu @ 33/1 
and Wyck Hill @ 33/1 
). But if you want a big priced value bet at current prices… 50/1 non-runner-no-bet with both Skybet and Ladbrokes looks excellent value. He’s available at bigger on exchanges but that’s not NRNB. Improved 33/1 winner of Irish Grand National last year and won previous start @ 50/1. Although 11 years old hasn’t had much racing and still unexposed at marathon trips.
I tipped Neptune Collonges @ around 50/1 as my main bet (to win most money) last year Patrick.
Value Is EverythingHow are these looking?
Balthazar KingAcross the Bay – I really like this horse but how well will he go on good to soft?
Joncol
I’m feeling an irish horse
I’m looking to place a £5 (£10) EW bet this year on that amazing Bet Victor deal – 6 places.
Any suggestions for a good value horse? I was thinking TeaforThree, but that would pay little if it placed
I’m already on Teaforthree @ 20/1 Patrick
(and Cappa Bleu @ 33/1 and Wyck Hill @ 33/1 ). But if you want a big priced value bet at current prices… 50/1 non-runner-no-bet with both Skybet and Ladbrokes looks excellent value. He’s available at bigger on exchanges but that’s not NRNB. Improved 33/1 winner of Irish Grand National last year and won previous start @ 50/1. Although 11 years old hasn’t had much racing and still unexposed at marathon trips.
I tipped Neptune Collonges @ around 50/1 as my main bet (to win most money) last year Patrick.
Which horse are you talking about ?
If you had one each way bet what would it be – 6 places?Thanks!!
How are these looking?
Balthazar KingAcross the Bay – I really like this horse but how well will he go on good to soft?
Joncol
I’m feeling an irish horse
Joncol jumps right, not ideal for the Canal Turn. Probably needs very soft ground too.
Accross The Bay would stand a chance, but only if he can make all. Seems to give up if he can’t be in front. May be better in smaller fields.
Balthazar King is interesting, goes well on good ground. Whether he can transfer x-country form to the National remains to be seen; Silver Birch managed it.
Value Is EverythingI’m looking to place a £5 (£10) EW bet this year on that amazing Bet Victor deal – 6 places.
Any suggestions for a good value horse? I was thinking TeaforThree, but that would pay little if it placed
I’m already on Teaforthree @ 20/1 Patrick
(and Cappa Bleu @ 33/1 and Wyck Hill @ 33/1 ). But if you want a big priced value bet at current prices… 50/1 non-runner-no-bet with both Skybet and Ladbrokes looks excellent value. He’s available at bigger on exchanges but that’s not NRNB. Improved 33/1 winner of Irish Grand National last year and won previous start @ 50/1. Although 11 years old hasn’t had much racing and still unexposed at marathon trips.
I tipped Neptune Collonges @ around 50/1 as my main bet (to win most money) last year Patrick.
Which horse are you talking about ?
If you had one each way bet what would it be – 6 places?Thanks!!
I must have deleted the name Patrick.
It’sLion Na Bearnai
.
Skybet are first5
each way.
I don’t do each way betting myself Patrick, prefer to have a few (or more) win bets. However, if I was going to have one each way bet it would be
Cappa Bleu
even @ 12/1, he’s the safest bet and can’t see him out of the first 5. But
Lion Na Bearnai
is a much bigger price and represents (imo) outstanding value.
Value Is EverythingJust backed two losers on account of forgetting about the watering policy. Presumably, I am not the only one as Balthazar King has been cut according to Oddschecker. Fingers crossed the other one, Lost Glory, might be a non-runner.
Personally, not in favour of doctoring the ground. I don’t think you are ever going to slow down that initial charge and on the plus side the field will almost certainly spread out that bit more on quicker ground.
Has anyone got the statistics for the number of finishers when Mr Frisk won?
Decided to go with Ginger’s Teeforthree and Cappableu to win bets, it’s so hard to find good value each way bets so I put a fiver on each
Going to Italy for a week (will miss the national) hopwefully I’ll come back to a £55 or £75 present
Good luck everyone!
Has anyone got the statistics for the number of finishers when Mr Frisk won?
38 ran Stilvi. 20 finished, 6 fallers, 5 unseated, 6 pulled up and 1 ran out.
There may or may not be more fallers/unseated on firm ground Stilvi; but injuries and fatalities are more frequent when things do go wrong. Not difficult to know why, falls on a firm (harder) surface will break more bones. Plus, the firmer the ground the faster they go and so the faster the impact…
Which is why it is a good idea (imo) for them to water to produce good-soft ground.
Value Is Everything
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